Hang in there...
I know.
I know it's been long. Far too long.
Just a little more, OK?
Friday, August 19, 2016
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q2
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016Q2) | DPU in previous vs current: $0.116 - > $0.120 Price in previous vs current: $2.00 -> $2.17 Yield in previous vs current: 5.8% -> 5.5% BV in previous vs current: $1.91-> $1.90 Revenue dipped as expected due to Northpoint AEI. Income was stable due to retained distributions from previous quarter, and higher management fee in units. Debt remains healthy. |
Super Group (FY2016Q2) | EPS in previous vs current: $0.0424 EPS in previous Q2 vs current: $0.094 -> 0.088 DPU in previous vs current: $0.010 -> $0.010 Price in previous vs current: $0.90 -> $0.78 Tolerable results with profits dropping "just" 7%. The reasons for holding remains the same as before - strong operating cash flow (and FCF) and balance sheet with good margins. I am estimating 4 cents earning for the year. No turnaround in sight so this will be in the freezer for a while. |
Sembcorp Industries (FY20161H) | EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.20 -> $0.97 DPU in previous 1H vs current: $0.05 -> $0.04 Price in previous vs current: $2.7 -> $2.8 Yield in previous vs current: 4.0% -> 2.8% BV in previous vs current: $3.6 -> $3.6 (~$3.3 excl. pref shares) Surprising hit on Utilities segment, although I am still confident in the long-term fundamentals of India. Marine as expected post disastrous results. Assuming an annualized EPS of 19cents, P/E at current price is 14.7. |
M1 (FY2016Q2) | EPS in 2014 vs 2015: $0.191 -> $0.191 EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.096 -> $0.089 DPU in previous vs current: $0.153 -> $0.153 Price in previous vs current: $2.48 -> $2.78 Yield in previous vs current: 6.2% -> 5.5% Management guided single digit decline in profit. Not good at all. Interim dividends of 7c is maintained. They are investing in new technologies but it will take the longer term to see any payoff. |
Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q2) | DPU in 2014 vs 2015: $0.086 -> $0.086 DPU in previous Q2 vs current: $0.0219 -> $0.0220 Price in previous vs current: $1.4 -> $1.55 Yield in previous vs current: 6.1% -> 5.5% BV in previous vs current: $1.72 -> $1.72 Flat results and DPU should be maintained. I don't see any upsides or downsides now, and at this price it's probably fully valued. |
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q1) | DPU in previous Q1 vs current: $0.00176 -> $0.0182 (12M: $0.0663) Price in previous vs current: $0.65 -> $0.68 Yield in previous vs current: ~10% BV in previous vs current: $0.89 -> $0.96 Slight decrease in operating income (2.3%) due to heavy rains and earthquake, but DPU increased slightly due to Yen appreciation. Profits after tax is 6% lower. No of visitors and utilization rate went slightly lower due to above reasons, but should not pose too much concern. This is still trading at a huge discount to NAV which is my safety net. My yield cow for the long term. |
ST Engineering (FY2016Q2) | Flattish results but management foresee lower profits compared to 2015. This is in contrast with the "comparable profits" guidance given earlier, leading to selldown in share price. |
Straits Times Index (FY2016) | Not Applicable |
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Mayday Just Rock It 2016
Attended my 3rd Mayday concert after a 3 year hiatus.
Song List (credits to Benjamin)
1. Do You Ever Shine
2. 三個傻瓜
3. 你不是真正的快樂
4. 為愛而生
5. 超人
6. 雌雄同體
7. 候鳥
8. 終結孤單
9. 尬車
10. 離開地球表面
11. 諾亞方舟
12. 知足
13. 瘋狂世界
14. 志明與春嬌
15. 笑忘歌
16. 盛夏光年
17. 頑固
18. 乾杯
19. 將軍令
20. 入陣曲
21. 我不願讓你一個人
22. 勇敢
23. 憨人
24. 一個蘋果
25. 人生海海
26. 派對動物
27. 傷心的人別聽慢歌
28. 如果我們不曾相遇
29. 溫柔
31. 後來的我們
32. 突然好想你
33. 兄弟
34. 人生有限公司
35. OAOA
36. 倔強
37. 戀愛ing
I went back and take a look at the review of the first Mayday concert I attended, and I can spot many similarities.
Pros:
1. They retained many "classic segments" of their concerts - in particular the "La~La la la~" of 憨人 and the "white butterflies climax" of 温柔. These 桥段 never gets old despite being re-used for a long time. They are some of my favourite parts of the concert.
2. Once again a "superb value for money" concert that lasts from 8:10pm to 11:45, over 3.5 hours. I believe most concerts are usually around 30 songs in 3 hours, but they always push it a little more to give back to their fans.
3. Awesome new high songs since their last concert. The "將軍令 + 入陣曲" portion was incredible.
4. They slot in some lesser known songs like 三個傻瓜, 雌雄同體, and also some hokkien ballads (志明與春嬌, 勇敢) which I felt was a nice touch. Pity that they seem to have took out 夜访吸血鬼 (1 of my favourite) in the Singapore concert.
5. I enjoyed their interactions (aka talking) with the fans a lot. It felt genuine and add a personal touch to the concert.
6. The most exhilarating finale to a concert I've experienced!
Cons:
1. After re-reading the 1st review, I actually mentioned that I should have brought seating area tickets. Must keep that in mind next time! I feel it's no point getting the "ground-level" seats as you are often blocked by people, and spend most of the time watching the screen anyway.
2. Not really a con but more of due to the theme of the concert being "Rock", the song proportion were allocated that way. If you look at the song list, about 80% of them were more fast-paced/rock/high songs, and hence the remaining are allocated to their most well-known ballads. You will miss out a lot of their 'secondary' ballads, most notably: 仓颉，星空，步步，如烟，天使.
3. Compared to the Noah Ark concert, this one has a much weaker theme in my opinion. The previous one has a strong overarching plot - The end of the World. Each segment is divided by short video clips telling the story of the lead struggles with the nuclear power project. The world is eventually destroyed and he travels back to the past to change history. (The fact that I still vaguely remember the storyline even now shows how good it is) The songs fits very well and it's like watching a movie. Anyway, you can't have everything right?
Talking Portion
High to the max!
Awesome finale!
Song List (credits to Benjamin)
1. Do You Ever Shine
2. 三個傻瓜
3. 你不是真正的快樂
4. 為愛而生
5. 超人
6. 雌雄同體
7. 候鳥
8. 終結孤單
9. 尬車
10. 離開地球表面
11. 諾亞方舟
12. 知足
13. 瘋狂世界
14. 志明與春嬌
15. 笑忘歌
16. 盛夏光年
17. 頑固
18. 乾杯
19. 將軍令
20. 入陣曲
21. 我不願讓你一個人
22. 勇敢
23. 憨人
24. 一個蘋果
25. 人生海海
26. 派對動物
27. 傷心的人別聽慢歌
28. 如果我們不曾相遇
29. 溫柔
31. 後來的我們
32. 突然好想你
33. 兄弟
34. 人生有限公司
35. OAOA
36. 倔強
37. 戀愛ing
I went back and take a look at the review of the first Mayday concert I attended, and I can spot many similarities.
Pros:
1. They retained many "classic segments" of their concerts - in particular the "La~La la la~" of 憨人 and the "white butterflies climax" of 温柔. These 桥段 never gets old despite being re-used for a long time. They are some of my favourite parts of the concert.
2. Once again a "superb value for money" concert that lasts from 8:10pm to 11:45, over 3.5 hours. I believe most concerts are usually around 30 songs in 3 hours, but they always push it a little more to give back to their fans.
3. Awesome new high songs since their last concert. The "將軍令 + 入陣曲" portion was incredible.
4. They slot in some lesser known songs like 三個傻瓜, 雌雄同體, and also some hokkien ballads (志明與春嬌, 勇敢) which I felt was a nice touch. Pity that they seem to have took out 夜访吸血鬼 (1 of my favourite) in the Singapore concert.
5. I enjoyed their interactions (aka talking) with the fans a lot. It felt genuine and add a personal touch to the concert.
6. The most exhilarating finale to a concert I've experienced!
Cons:
1. After re-reading the 1st review, I actually mentioned that I should have brought seating area tickets. Must keep that in mind next time! I feel it's no point getting the "ground-level" seats as you are often blocked by people, and spend most of the time watching the screen anyway.
2. Not really a con but more of due to the theme of the concert being "Rock", the song proportion were allocated that way. If you look at the song list, about 80% of them were more fast-paced/rock/high songs, and hence the remaining are allocated to their most well-known ballads. You will miss out a lot of their 'secondary' ballads, most notably: 仓颉，星空，步步，如烟，天使.
3. Compared to the Noah Ark concert, this one has a much weaker theme in my opinion. The previous one has a strong overarching plot - The end of the World. Each segment is divided by short video clips telling the story of the lead struggles with the nuclear power project. The world is eventually destroyed and he travels back to the past to change history. (The fact that I still vaguely remember the storyline even now shows how good it is) The songs fits very well and it's like watching a movie. Anyway, you can't have everything right?
Talking Portion
High to the max!
Awesome finale!
Sunday, July 17, 2016
CPF - OA to SA Transfer
After much deliberation, I finally decided to do it.
It's one that decision that I cracked my brains over back in January, but I think it's time I take the first step. What prompted the change of mind?
1. The market rebounded and I didn't even invest my cash, much less CPF-OA. Timing the market is harder than you think, and it's definitely not guaranteed that I am comfortable using OA to beat 2.5%.
2. I realized my CPF-SA is accumulating very slowly from Mandatory Contribution. At this rate, It is going to take forever to reach $161K, or whatever the FRS in the future.
3. Do you know you enjoy an extra 1% interest on your first $60K, but only $20K can come from OA? That means if I do the transfer, I earn a whole extra 2.5%.
4. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably won't be getting a flat for another 5 years. That means another full 5 years of OA accumulation.
5. I do admit I am strongly influenced by AK and several other bloggers. These guys are getting $6K-$10K in interest every year. (Some of them maxed out SA as early as 32 years old) The government is literally helping them fulfill the growing "minimum sum".
---
By transferring this $20K, I would accelerate my SA account at a much faster rate.
In the first year, I would earn an extra $500+ in interest.
For 10 years, I would get an extra $6.4K.
For 20 years, an extra $15K.
By the time I'm 55, this $20K would bring me more than $20K in additional interest. That means an additional $20K towards fulfilling the FRS.
---
Of course, I am well-aware of the risks. The most important ones are:
1. Less buffer for housing. I have plans to fully pay my flat with cash and minimize the usage of CPF. Still, it is definitely important to leave buffer - which explains why I'm not transferring more.
2. Political risk. Who knows how the withdrawal rules, schemes and interest rates may change in the future?
3. Possible opportunity cost if I ever want to purchase a 2nd property, and unable to withdraw until 55.
In a way, this move is a strong contrast with FIRE. With less OA, it means I have to fork out more cash for housing, and thus weaken my FIRE goals.
It's looking at a time much further in the future. I want to balance my goal of early financial independence, and also start steering the 'old age' ship in the right direction.
---
Overall, I think I'm taking a prudent and balanced approach - using an amount that isn't exorbitant and I am confident of covering.
The last thing you want to worried about when you're old and sick is money. I think what I am doing is taking a small portion of early financial freedom and channeling it into greater old age security.
It's one that decision that I cracked my brains over back in January, but I think it's time I take the first step. What prompted the change of mind?
1. The market rebounded and I didn't even invest my cash, much less CPF-OA. Timing the market is harder than you think, and it's definitely not guaranteed that I am comfortable using OA to beat 2.5%.
2. I realized my CPF-SA is accumulating very slowly from Mandatory Contribution. At this rate, It is going to take forever to reach $161K, or whatever the FRS in the future.
3. Do you know you enjoy an extra 1% interest on your first $60K, but only $20K can come from OA? That means if I do the transfer, I earn a whole extra 2.5%.
4. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably won't be getting a flat for another 5 years. That means another full 5 years of OA accumulation.
5. I do admit I am strongly influenced by AK and several other bloggers. These guys are getting $6K-$10K in interest every year. (Some of them maxed out SA as early as 32 years old) The government is literally helping them fulfill the growing "minimum sum".
---
By transferring this $20K, I would accelerate my SA account at a much faster rate.
In the first year, I would earn an extra $500+ in interest.
For 10 years, I would get an extra $6.4K.
For 20 years, an extra $15K.
By the time I'm 55, this $20K would bring me more than $20K in additional interest. That means an additional $20K towards fulfilling the FRS.
---
Of course, I am well-aware of the risks. The most important ones are:
1. Less buffer for housing. I have plans to fully pay my flat with cash and minimize the usage of CPF. Still, it is definitely important to leave buffer - which explains why I'm not transferring more.
2. Political risk. Who knows how the withdrawal rules, schemes and interest rates may change in the future?
3. Possible opportunity cost if I ever want to purchase a 2nd property, and unable to withdraw until 55.
In a way, this move is a strong contrast with FIRE. With less OA, it means I have to fork out more cash for housing, and thus weaken my FIRE goals.
It's looking at a time much further in the future. I want to balance my goal of early financial independence, and also start steering the 'old age' ship in the right direction.
---
Overall, I think I'm taking a prudent and balanced approach - using an amount that isn't exorbitant and I am confident of covering.
The last thing you want to worried about when you're old and sick is money. I think what I am doing is taking a small portion of early financial freedom and channeling it into greater old age security.
Monday, July 04, 2016
Letter To Shareholders (3) - Performance Review 2016Q2
Welcome to the 3rd issue of ZZ Holdings Shareholders Letter.
Performance Highlights
Despite the surprising Brexit event, the markets were unfazed and our portfolio made gains of 5.7% in Q2, compared to the STI which was up a mere 0.7% (a large potion was thanks to CMP divestment). With this recovery, our overall portfolio is now almost in the green.
In 2nd quarter, we paid out a record dividend of over $1300 - highest amount ever since inception. Who says financial freedom is a dream?
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up slightly (about 5% more), largely due to an increase in passive income and dividends.
Expenses skyrocketed in May due to a critical mismanagement event. The board unreservedly apologize to the shareholders for this loss. Other major contributors includes Mayday Concert ($290) and multiple unexpected costs such as SSD Replacement ($250), IEM Cable Replacement ($70) & 2 Dental Visits ($100 after subsidies).
Overall, expenses for the quarter were up 65% compared to last year. Moving forward, we foresee the possibility of a phone replacement, and to a lesser extent some computer components, as potential major expenses in the 2nd half of the year.
Takeover of China Merchant Pacific (CMP)
We divested CMP at the takeover price of $1.02, over 20% premium over the trading range of 80c and 85c. This was entirely pure luck.
Regardless, the company made over $1500 from this unexpected takeover. While we are pleased, do keep in mind that this is an one-time income. At the same time, the company lost a dividend cash-cow and we will look to redirect the monies into other companies.
Financial Statistics (SGXCafe)
We setup account at SGXCafe to further analyze our portfolio. Base on our current holdings, here are some statistics:
Beta - Surprisingly, our portfolio is less volatile than the STI, standing at 0.71.
Value at Risk - We are 99% confident that we will not lose more than 9% of our portfolio.
Expected Shortfall - How bad can things get when terrible things happen? Put another way, in 1% of the time, how much drawdown do we expect? We stands at -17%.
Financial Accounts Changes & Outlook
SIBOR rate retracts slightly to around 0.75%. Our Maxigain account will start accumulating 0.4% bonus interest in July and should start surpassing CIMB starsaver very soon. Going forward, we would look to transfer any long-term cash into this account.
In other news, SCB announced the removal of its minimum commission scheme. Our audit team also discovered that CIMB Cash Upfront custodian account charges $3 for dividend processing. Given this, we are no longer interested in performing any transactions using these accounts.
We eagerly anticipate the following events in the 2nd half of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the divestment of ST engineering and CMP, our cash holdings are getting too high for our liking. While we would love to get more equities, the strong rally is not favoring it.
We look forward to growing our revenue and re-balancing our portfolio in the upcoming quarter.
Performance Highlights
Despite the surprising Brexit event, the markets were unfazed and our portfolio made gains of 5.7% in Q2, compared to the STI which was up a mere 0.7% (a large potion was thanks to CMP divestment). With this recovery, our overall portfolio is now almost in the green.
In 2nd quarter, we paid out a record dividend of over $1300 - highest amount ever since inception. Who says financial freedom is a dream?
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up slightly (about 5% more), largely due to an increase in passive income and dividends.
Expenses skyrocketed in May due to a critical mismanagement event. The board unreservedly apologize to the shareholders for this loss. Other major contributors includes Mayday Concert ($290) and multiple unexpected costs such as SSD Replacement ($250), IEM Cable Replacement ($70) & 2 Dental Visits ($100 after subsidies).
Overall, expenses for the quarter were up 65% compared to last year. Moving forward, we foresee the possibility of a phone replacement, and to a lesser extent some computer components, as potential major expenses in the 2nd half of the year.
Takeover of China Merchant Pacific (CMP)
We divested CMP at the takeover price of $1.02, over 20% premium over the trading range of 80c and 85c. This was entirely pure luck.
Regardless, the company made over $1500 from this unexpected takeover. While we are pleased, do keep in mind that this is an one-time income. At the same time, the company lost a dividend cash-cow and we will look to redirect the monies into other companies.
Financial Statistics (SGXCafe)
We setup account at SGXCafe to further analyze our portfolio. Base on our current holdings, here are some statistics:
Beta - Surprisingly, our portfolio is less volatile than the STI, standing at 0.71.
Value at Risk - We are 99% confident that we will not lose more than 9% of our portfolio.
Expected Shortfall - How bad can things get when terrible things happen? Put another way, in 1% of the time, how much drawdown do we expect? We stands at -17%.
Financial Accounts Changes & Outlook
SIBOR rate retracts slightly to around 0.75%. Our Maxigain account will start accumulating 0.4% bonus interest in July and should start surpassing CIMB starsaver very soon. Going forward, we would look to transfer any long-term cash into this account.
In other news, SCB announced the removal of its minimum commission scheme. Our audit team also discovered that CIMB Cash Upfront custodian account charges $3 for dividend processing. Given this, we are no longer interested in performing any transactions using these accounts.
We eagerly anticipate the following events in the 2nd half of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the divestment of ST engineering and CMP, our cash holdings are getting too high for our liking. While we would love to get more equities, the strong rally is not favoring it.
We look forward to growing our revenue and re-balancing our portfolio in the upcoming quarter.
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