Sunday, May 28, 2017

ZZ Financial Education Series 2 - Assets VS Liabilities

“The rich buy assets, the poor buy liabilities”

This is the foundation and fundamental concept towards financial freedom.

Putting aside lottery and inheritance, there are only 2 ways you can make money:

1.     Exchanging Time/Energy for Money, or Human Capital
2.     Making Money From Money, or Financial Capital

Unfortunately, human capital is limited. We cannot work forever, and we only have 24 hours a day. Unless you are a super-high earner who can amass a fortune during your productive age on your job, you can never achieve financial freedom by the first method alone. This is because once you stop working, so does the cash inflow.

Most "commoners" are forever stuck with the first method. We were never taught other ways. If you do so, you will work until the day you die.

Take a moment to consider what would you rather have?

1.     20 Years of food in the warehouse
2.     A farmland of livestock and crops that can produce enough food to feed you every year

1.     $1 million dollars in the bank
2.     Assets that can generate $50K per year, every year, forever.

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The Chinese have a saying - "Even if you have a mountain of gold, it'll eventually dry up when you stop working." (做吃山空)

Hence, the way to financial freedom is not to accumulate a mountain of gold, but to collect things that can generate gold for you perpetually.

The ordinary man work for 40 years, save up loads of money and then hope it'll last him through his retirement until the day he leave Earth. The financial literate person accumulates assets until his assets generate enough cashflow to cover his expenses.

What's the difference?

The second method has some clear advantages: You are never afraid that you would “live too long”. There is no risk of you having to return to work when you are 80 years old cause your retirement fund run out. There is no risk of spending too much when you first cashout your retirement lump sum.

In other words: Grow apple trees, not collect apples. Buy cows, not milk. Buy chickens, not eggs.

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So, what are assets? Assets are essentially anything that produces money/value. An asset generate cash inflow for you.

A simpler definition: If this thing gives you money, it’s an asset. If this thing takes money from you, it’s either an expense or liability.

A good dividend stock? It’s an asset.
A coupon-paying bond? It’s an asset
A milk-producing cow? It’s an asset.
Food that you need to eat? Expense.
Movie and entertainment? Expense.
Student loan? Liability.

Some often misinterpreted ones:

Your insurance/healthcare plan? It’s a liability.
Monthly car installment? It’s a liability.
A house you’re paying mortgage for? It’s a liability.
A house you rented out and collecting money every month? It’s an asset.

Certain things (like house) can be both an asset and liability at the same time. It's a complicated topic with many views but that's beyond the scope of this article. In essence, anything that does not give you money is an expense or liability (food, gadgets, clothings, etc...)

Remember this: The rich buy assets, not liabilities.

Everything is summarize by this guy.



The path to financial freedom is to have your money work for you.

The easiest to do this, for a typical Singaporean, is to use the first method (your human capital) to accumulate your first pot of gold. Save a lot, then invest it into assets.

Let your assets generate income, and use the income to buy more assets. (i.e 钱生钱)

In this diagram below, Poor Dad refer to the financially illiterate and majority of the population. Rich Dad is the path towards financial freedom.



Summary: 
1) Work -> Income -> Buy Assets -> Repeat
2) Assets -> Generate Income -> Buy Assets -> Repeat

In your early years, most of your money will come from the first method. It can only be so for people who aren't born with a silver spoon, for commoners like us.

Thus, you need to make hay while the sun still shine. When you are young, your passive income will be pathetic compared to your active income. As you grow older, your human capital will eventually plateau and go into decline. You have less energy, are at greater risk of being fired, of becoming obsolete, of losing out to fresh graduates. That is the time when your financial capital should take over your human capital to generate money for you.

Eventually it will snowball to the point where income from the 2nd method covers your entire lifestyle expense.

And that, my friends, is financial independence.

A Side Note On Debt
Many young generation today live a "YOLO" lifestyle, thinking they should enjoy all they can, spending all their salary or worse, getting into debt.

Debt and liabilities are the greatest obstacle to financial independence. Debt is borrowing from your future self. Interests on debt are "reverse passive income" that will compound against you. Never get into debt.

Finally I leave you with this video from OnePercentBetter. This article covers Chapter 2.


Thursday, May 25, 2017

Quarterly Results Review - 2017Q1

Frasers Centrepoint Trust

NPI dipped 3% while DPU is maintained, largely due to Northpoint AEI. Northpoint will be complete in the later part of this year, and in my opinion its integration with Northpoint City will bring FCT to new heights.

Average rental revision at 4.1% which is impressive when you compare it to other REITs which are either incurring negative revision or flattish revision.

A slight concern to me is the 3.5% dip in shoppers traffic. We have to observe to see if this forms a trend.

Super Group

Divestment completed at $1.30 per share.


Sembcorp Industries

Profit goes up slightly thanks to land sales from Urban Development, but this is one off. Marine continue to suffer and Utilities was unexpectedly bad, particular the overseas segment.

Big news is new CEO plans to take 6 months for a strategic revamp of its operations.

M1

Profit continue to suffer (6th consecutive quarter) another 14%, with the usual culprits such as falling international call. 1Q EPS at 3.9c, down from 4.5c. M1 is sacrificing average revenue per user (ARPU) in exchange for maintaining/slightly increasing subscribers.

Losing faith with its management as they won't commit on dividend/profit guideline, sticking with "80% Payout".

FY 2015 DPU: 15.3c, EPS: 19c
FY 2016 DPU: 12.9c, EPS: 16.1c

Worst case, I am expecting 15c EPS and 12c DPU. At $2, it will be 6% yield.

Stock price is heavily influenced by the ongoing "shareholder review".

Capital Commercial Trust

Once again defy all expectations with 10% higher DPU despite the office rental headwinds.

Main catalyst now is the redevelopment of Golden Shoe Complex.

The price has run up a fair bit now, and I think it's now fairly valued at around $1.6.
Accordia Golf Trust

Unexpectedly bad results, with current DPU dropping over 14% to 4.71 yen for the whole year. Annual dividend (SGD) dropped 9% from 6.63c to 6.04c

This is attributed to higher snowfall in Feb.

Remains at a steep discount to book value of 0.91 and supported mainly by its yield.


ST Engineering

NA.

Crazy run up in prices!
Singtel

Showed resilliant results (net profit up 2%) when its peers are down in doldrums (both M1 and Starhub down 30 %).

Nothing much to say except I'm confident. Looking forward to Netlink IPO later this year.
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd


Really surprising results with net profits up 90% due to profit recognition from Suzhou, China and Singapore. FCL currently has about 46%, 33%, 9% and 7% assets in Singapore, Australia, China and Europe respective - and they are looking to increase investments in overseas assets for long term growth. It's a good diversification from SG for me.

70% of the assets and 50% of net profits are from recurring sources (i.e REITs), which provides a good "baseline" of dividends. Despite the relatively high level of debt, I am quite confident in its management.

Dividends has been maintained at 8.6c for the past 3 years (5.8% yield at $1.495, very high for a property developer).

Capitaland Mall Trust


Not much comments as position is extremely small.

Rental revision is almost flat.

Expect DPU to be stable around 11c until the return of Funan Mall in 2019.

Straits Times Index

NA

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

ZZ Financial Education Series 1 - No One Care About Your Money Except Yourself

If you ask the butcher if you should have meat or veg today, what would he say?

If you ask the salesgirl if the shoes look good on you, what would she say?

If you ask the insurance agent if you are sufficiently covered, what would he say?

If you ask the property agent is it better to invest in stocks or property, what would he say?

If you ask the broker if it is a good time to buy stocks now, what would he say?

If you ask the barber if you need a haircut, what would he say?

...

DON'T ASK STUPID QUESTIONS LAH!

A property agent agent job is to sell house, not to take care of your finances.

An insurance agent job is to sell insurance & earn commission, not to take care of your finances.

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In the first post of this series, I'm going to debunk why you should never grow your money with insurance companies, banks, managed funds, etc...

It's actually VERY SIMPLE.

Just ask yourself: Why are they wasting their time to help you manage your money? You think really got people so free? Why do you think there's always random strangers at the MRT stations offering to help you "earn more money"?

It doesn't take a genius to figure out - because they get a cut in the process. Commissions, management fees, you named it. If they don't earn anything, you think people got so much free time to waste on a  stranger?

Always remember: Their purpose is to earn from you.

This immediately puts their interest and your interest in conflict.

Supposed there are 2 equal investment products, would they recommend you the one that cost less or more fee? If they take more percentage in fee, that means less returns for you. So are they working in your interest, or their interest?

It's nothing personal - it's just business.

It's just how the world of capitalism works.

Have you ever wonder why no insurance agents/financial consultant would ever recommend you to buy Singapore Saving Bonds (risk free 2%), or to buy term insurance (they get almost no commission), or putting your money in CPF?

Imagine how dumb that is.

It's like the meat-seller telling you "Don't eat meat already. You are overweight."

It's like housing agent telling you "Prices are high now you should wait."

It's like the shop uncle telling you "This item if cheaper if you get it from next door."

See the point?

I'm not saying what they recommend doesn't make sense. I'm saying 99.99% of the time (unless you have a saint for a financial consultant), what they recommend isn't optimal. Agents got to eat, you know?

It is inevitable that they will skew their recommendations towards higher commissioned products; Products that have much better alternatives. The same products that you can purchase elsewhere.

Suppose you want to buy Bread + Peanut Butter. You can:

1. Head to your local mart and buy them individually for $2 and $3.

2. Have your agent packed it in a hamper as 1 item, and sell it to you for $10.

This is investment-linked policies for you.

This is bank structured deposits for you.

This is managed funds for you.

They packaged everyday, simple financial products and sell you at a steep premium.

You still want to buy from them?

Up to you lor.

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To add on, these people aren't necessary more savvy than you in the first place.

Every now and then you see news of agents themselves getting scammed.

What these agents know are how to sell to you, not how to make good investments.

Those agents (sometimes fresh graduates) often know nothing more about investments than you.

So two points:

1. Their financial interests are in conflict with yours
2. They are not much better than you in investments in the first place

Don't believe? You will soon as we get further in this series.

It is like paying an ignorant person a commission to help you "grow" your money. You lose in 2 ways - You make lesser than you would have, and they get to take a cut of your capital with it. You are basically paying for underperformance, and these fees you pay add up massively over time.

So why are there still so many people who let people managed their money?

Mostly because they don't want to take responsibility for it. They are scare of losing when they make their own investments. They prefer someone else losing it for them, and thus having someone to blame for it.

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In Summary:

1. No one care more about your finances except yourself.
2. You lose in multiple ways when you get someone to manage your money.
3. Financial ignorance will cost you much more over your lifetime than a few years of salary will.

"If you don’t understand the incentives of your advisor, you’re liable to discover
that you’ve done wonders for his financial future while potentially wrecking your own. 
- Tony Robbins"

You Can't Beat The Market

Do you want to add more wealth to your hedge fund managers, insurance agents, financial consultants?

Then watch this video.

"Remember, we have choices in life. While we still have time on our side, choose wisely."