This shall be an overall record of all the board games I've played and the best ones.
A - Excellent. I think this game is among the best of its category. If I want to play a game of this type, this will be my top choice.
B - Very Good.
C - Average.
D - Bad, or just not my cup of tea.
BEST LIGHT PARTY GAMES
A - Code Names / "Code Names Dixit"
A - Concept
B - Dixit
B - Cloud 9
B - Telestrations
C - Good Cop Bad Cop
C - Get Bit!
C - No Thanks
C - Can't Stop
D - Dead Last
BEST LIGHT CARD GAMES
B - Parade
B - 7 Wonders
C - 6 Nimmt!
C - Citadels
C - Gang Up
C - Saboteur 2
C - Mascarade
C - Coup
C - Love Letter
C - Sushido (Party)
C - Falling
D - Condottiere
D - Bang!
D - Loot
D - Loco
BEST DEXTERITY/CHESS-LIKE GAMES
A - Dr Eureka
B - Quoridor
C - Bamboleo
C - Going Going Gone
D - Hands Up
D - Ugly Dolls
D - Monster Fox
BEST LIGHT BOARD GAMES
A - I'm The Boss
A - Shadows Over Camelot
A - Plague Inc
B - St Petersburg
B - Pandemic
B - Carcassonne
B - Nigeria Falls
B - Pompeii
B - Small World
B - Sheriff of Nottingham
B - Mystery of the Abbey
B - Chateau Roquefort
B - Takenoko
B - Tiny Epic Western
C - Manila
C - Tiny Epic Kingdoms
C - King Of Tokyo/New York
C - Evolution
C - Flash Point
C - Samurai
C - Captain Sonar
C - Scotland Yard
C - Through The Desert
C - Goldbrau
C - Takenoko
D - Tiny Epic Galaxy
D - Happy Pigs
D - Panic Station
BEST DECEPTION / SOCIETY DEDUCTION GAMES
A - Secret Hitler
A - Spyfall
A - Deception: Murder
B - Blood Bound
B - Fake Artist
C - Resistance / Avalon
D - Eat Me If You Can!
BEST ECONOMY/WORKER PLACEMENT GAME
A - Stone Age
B - Splendor
B - The Palaces of Carrara
C - Isle of Skye
D - Istanbul
D - Lords of Waterdeep
D - Broom Service
D - Village
BEST HEAVY/STRATEGIC GAME
B - Three Kingdoms Redux
B - Imperial
B - Battlestar Galatica
B - Betrayal at House On The Hill
B - Shogun
BEST CO-OPERATIVE GAME
B - Time Stories (Asylum)
B - Time Stories (Marcy Case)
B - Time Stories (Prophecy of Dragons)
C - Time Stories (Under The Mask)
C - Escape Room
C - Arkham Horror: The Card Game
Sunday, December 18, 2016
Sunday, December 11, 2016
Thirties
Ahhh... The big 3 is finally upon me.
Some pretty significant revelations/events happened in the past year:
Some pretty significant revelations/events happened in the past year:
1. Board Games Meetup
Probably the biggest change to my weekend life for years - The meetups have since become an integral part of my weekends.
In the past, sleep was almost always a priority. Now, there are times when I would even brave the rain to attend the meetups.
Let's just say that they are now ranked really highly up in my "priority" list.
Let's just say that they are now ranked really highly up in my "priority" list.
Best of all, I think it's a really good pastime - Social, Fun and Low Cost. I got to meet lots of new people, enjoyed myself immensely in the process and it doesn't cost much money!
2. Minimalist Lifestyle
While I am far from being a true minimalist (I still hold sentimental value to many 'obsolete' things), I think there's good progress made this year by dumping out lot of stuff.
I think I have "no feeling" towards many possessions now.
Black Friday, Alibaba 11-11 Sales, Taobao, etc... I never even buy a single item. Haha. I really don't get what's all the craze about.
If you don't need it, then you don't need it, sales or not.
I have to "really consider" before buying any things, especially physical objects. Digital things are still okay, but physical items are really a waste of space and you need to spend additional effort to maintain them.
3. Financial Goals
Now, I have truly experienced the ups and downs of the financial markets for myself.
I have become numb to seeing my portfolio going up/down by 4 digits in a single day.
Brexit? Trump Presidency?
You thought there's no way Trump would win. And he did.
You thought the markets would crash should he win. It skyrocketed instead.
All these only strengthened what I already know.
Time in the markets > Timing the market. Buy good companies, ignore the markets and hold them for the long-term. That's how you grow your money.
Anyway. Now begins my 10 years path towards Financial Independence. 10 Years.
Contrary to what some may think, I never intend to (and never will) sacrifice my quality of life, health, or happiness in the pursue of FI. That explains why I took a 3 weeks break between job change, why I still indulge in the "wants" of life.
4. Job Change
The biggest event this year.
Frankly speaking, I was extremely apprehensive about it - even after I've made up my mind.
Up till my first week or so at the new role, I am still wondering if I had made the right choice.
It feels like something I read about before - Stockholm syndrome, though definitely not in the same context.
We all get comfortable after staying in one environment (good or bad) for a long time, and can feel lost and start missing the old place, the routine, the people.
Hopefully the adjustment period will be over soon and I can start anew.
5. Becoming Stronger & More Independent
This sort of just happened over the past 1+ year.
In the past (from university period right up till late 2015), my happiness was significantly affected by external events - particularly other people.
When someone treat me badly, I'll feel extremely bad. When people don't reciprocate my goodwill, I'll feel super disappointed. When I get cheated, I become extremely depressed. You get the idea.
Now, these things affects me much much less. I spend time on things I care about. I care less what other people think. I don't let judgement and superficial things bother me.
When I'm tired, I just say I'm leaving - I don't care if you think I'm unfriendly or weird.
When I want to take a long break, I take a long break - Don't care people saying I "waste money".
When I don't want to go out with you, that means I don't want to go out - Don't say I'm anti-social.
When people try to inject negativity into me, I ignore them.
Basically, I do what I want, when I want.
I definitely feel more "true to myself" now.
And it feels damn good.
While I am far from being a true minimalist (I still hold sentimental value to many 'obsolete' things), I think there's good progress made this year by dumping out lot of stuff.
I think I have "no feeling" towards many possessions now.
Black Friday, Alibaba 11-11 Sales, Taobao, etc... I never even buy a single item. Haha. I really don't get what's all the craze about.
If you don't need it, then you don't need it, sales or not.
I have to "really consider" before buying any things, especially physical objects. Digital things are still okay, but physical items are really a waste of space and you need to spend additional effort to maintain them.
3. Financial Goals
Now, I have truly experienced the ups and downs of the financial markets for myself.
I have become numb to seeing my portfolio going up/down by 4 digits in a single day.
Brexit? Trump Presidency?
You thought there's no way Trump would win. And he did.
You thought the markets would crash should he win. It skyrocketed instead.
All these only strengthened what I already know.
Time in the markets > Timing the market. Buy good companies, ignore the markets and hold them for the long-term. That's how you grow your money.
Anyway. Now begins my 10 years path towards Financial Independence. 10 Years.
Contrary to what some may think, I never intend to (and never will) sacrifice my quality of life, health, or happiness in the pursue of FI. That explains why I took a 3 weeks break between job change, why I still indulge in the "wants" of life.
4. Job Change
The biggest event this year.
Frankly speaking, I was extremely apprehensive about it - even after I've made up my mind.
Up till my first week or so at the new role, I am still wondering if I had made the right choice.
It feels like something I read about before - Stockholm syndrome, though definitely not in the same context.
We all get comfortable after staying in one environment (good or bad) for a long time, and can feel lost and start missing the old place, the routine, the people.
Hopefully the adjustment period will be over soon and I can start anew.
5. Becoming Stronger & More Independent
This sort of just happened over the past 1+ year.
In the past (from university period right up till late 2015), my happiness was significantly affected by external events - particularly other people.
When someone treat me badly, I'll feel extremely bad. When people don't reciprocate my goodwill, I'll feel super disappointed. When I get cheated, I become extremely depressed. You get the idea.
Now, these things affects me much much less. I spend time on things I care about. I care less what other people think. I don't let judgement and superficial things bother me.
When I'm tired, I just say I'm leaving - I don't care if you think I'm unfriendly or weird.
When I want to take a long break, I take a long break - Don't care people saying I "waste money".
When I don't want to go out with you, that means I don't want to go out - Don't say I'm anti-social.
When people try to inject negativity into me, I ignore them.
Basically, I do what I want, when I want.
I definitely feel more "true to myself" now.
And it feels damn good.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
The Meaning Of Mayday Songs
Compared to other artistes, Mayday songs encompasses a HUGE variety of themes. And many of them really connect deeply with me (and I believe people of my age)
Asides from the typical "boys & girls love" ballads, some themes they often touch on are:
1. Friendship/Kinship
2. Conformity to Society Norms
3. Motivational/Inspirational
4. Life & Death
5. Society Phenomenons
Many people only enjoy the songs melody/tune, but if you dig deeper into the lyrics behind their songs, you'll uncover many gems. As it would take n-pages of text to go into details, I'm just gonna share a few examples and quotes:
1. Friendship/Kinship
洗衣机
Comparing mother's love to the washing machine. I especially like the build up until the end when they finally reveal who the washing machine is.
任意门
Every line in this song is their life story. From their background to how they met, fought, started out and achieve the status they have today. This song is specifically talking about their friendship.
"你问我全世界是哪里最美？答案是「你身边」"
干杯
Will there come a day where time will turn back?
The answer is obvious, but the memories we've held will live on forever.
"终究会 有一天 我们都变成昨天
是你 陪我走过 一生一回 匆匆的人间"
2. Conformity to Society Norms
三个傻瓜
The first idiot can't wait to go to school. Little did he know he would use up all his youth in school.
The second idiot was there is no hurry to fall in love. Love will come in the future. So he gave up love to pursue study.
The third idiot exchanged 19 years for 5 certificates, climbing the social ladder for fear of being left behind.
Idiots or not, time will come after all of us. In the blink of an eye, the 3 idiots have all become old.
"这故事 熟悉吗? 走过吗? 无奈吗? 心痛吗?"
人生有限公司
We "clock-in" into the company in the delivery room.
In the first department, your parents are your superiors - Just be obedient.
In the second department, you're manufactured into a product which excel at study and exams.
Third department, learn to manage your finance.
Fourth department, find your other half.
This is our system. Our production line. Our society. There are no holidays in the Life Pte Ltd. There are no answers these questions in life.
"你曾停下过吗 你曾怀疑过吗？
就算你有想法 你也没有办法
人生无限问题 没有解答
追逐富贵荣华 目标飞黄腾达
其实平安到达 就是一种伟大
"
3. Motivation/Inspirational
第二人生
We look forward to wonderful things in life, but most of us aren't putting in effort. Instead, we continue to live the same routine life, day after day, year after year.
We wait for our superheroes to appear.
We wait for miracles.
We wait for god to answer our prayers.
"英雄没有出现 奇迹没有发生"
"等到荒废青春 用尽体温 才开始悔恨"
倔强
There are so many inspirational lines in this song - just listening to it fills you with "stubborn" and determined energy.
"我如果对自己妥协如果对自己说谎, 即使你不原谅我也不能原谅"
"我就是我自己的神在我活的地方"
"你说被火烧过才能出现凤凰"
"逆风的方向更适合飞翔"
勇敢
Even their Hokkien songs are extremely well written. This one give me the energy to go on when times are tough.
When the time come where it seems like all hope is lost, when you're crying and no one knows, when you're drowning in sorrow...
Remember that all these will pass. Darkness will pass and sweet fruits will bear from bitterness. And have that courage to work towards that future.
4. Life & Death
如烟
Personally, I think this is one of the most beautiful lyrics I've seen in any song.
Is there a world where it never goes dark?
Is there a rose which never wither?
Is there a poem which never ends?
Is there a "forever" which never changes?
When we arrive at the end of our life, what regrets will we have? Can I have the chance to re-live my life all over again?
In this song, we experience the regret and agony of having limited life span. Many things we regret. Don't you wish to freeze time, or return to that moment and do something different?
夜访吸血鬼
Interestingly, this song describes the exact opposite of above - the pain and sorrow of immortality. If you ignore the very "wild and rock" tune and focus on the lyrics alone, you'll notice the vampire lead a really sad and miserable life.
Think about it - They witness their love ones die one by one, their dreams (of living normal lives) shatter.
They lost their youth and yet had to be reminded of it constantly. They're lonely. They're forsaken by gods. They have no motivation to carry on living, and yet they can't end their miserable lives, even if they tried suicide by consuming the holy water.
"看爱过的人 一一告别, 做过的梦 一一凋谢, 只留下我独自残喘的千年"
转眼
Writing the final chapter of my biography.
Success is like sandcastle, life is like the sea waves. Money, big houses... everything is but an illusion.
"成就如沙堡 生命如海浪
浪花会掏尽 所有的幻象
存款与楼房 挣扎与渴望 散场"
My children and grandchildren are all busy, let them be.
When I return to the light, will there be someone waiting on the other side?
5. Society Phenomenoms
黑暗骑士
World has become more orderly over the years, but income equality widens and masses still live in poverty. We have reached peak of civilization, yet people have retreated back into their caves and become more distance. The lines between good and evil are getting blur.
This song lists all the evil and terrible things happening in our society:"
"越来越毒的雨水 越来越多的灾变
律师和小丑勾结 民代和财团签约
越来越大的企业 越来越小的公园"
入阵曲
You really need to do some research to uncover the deep meaning behind this song (or just watch the original MV to catch a glimpse of it)
"當一座城牆 只為了阻擋 所有自由渴望"
A wall that blocks freedom. Clue: This is not describing a physical wall.
"當一份真相 隻手能隱藏 直到人們遺忘"
When the truth can be hidden away until people forget. Countless cases of these.
"幼無糧 民無房 誰在分贓"
Where corruption run rampant.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even their "typical love ballads" often have unique settings. Just to quote a few:
仓颉 - Even the creator of Chinese characters would be unable to come up with description appropriate to describe my love, to make you return to my side.
超人 - Superman can save the world, but couldn't do anything about our dying love.
"为什么拯救地球是那么容易, 为什么束手无策啊我和你的爱情"
I hope this post will interest readers in exploring more behind the meaning of their songs!
Asides from the typical "boys & girls love" ballads, some themes they often touch on are:
1. Friendship/Kinship
2. Conformity to Society Norms
3. Motivational/Inspirational
4. Life & Death
5. Society Phenomenons
Many people only enjoy the songs melody/tune, but if you dig deeper into the lyrics behind their songs, you'll uncover many gems. As it would take n-pages of text to go into details, I'm just gonna share a few examples and quotes:
1. Friendship/Kinship
洗衣机
Comparing mother's love to the washing machine. I especially like the build up until the end when they finally reveal who the washing machine is.
任意门
Every line in this song is their life story. From their background to how they met, fought, started out and achieve the status they have today. This song is specifically talking about their friendship.
"你问我全世界是哪里最美？答案是「你身边」"
干杯
Will there come a day where time will turn back?
The answer is obvious, but the memories we've held will live on forever.
"终究会 有一天 我们都变成昨天
是你 陪我走过 一生一回 匆匆的人间"
2. Conformity to Society Norms
三个傻瓜
The first idiot can't wait to go to school. Little did he know he would use up all his youth in school.
The second idiot was there is no hurry to fall in love. Love will come in the future. So he gave up love to pursue study.
The third idiot exchanged 19 years for 5 certificates, climbing the social ladder for fear of being left behind.
Idiots or not, time will come after all of us. In the blink of an eye, the 3 idiots have all become old.
"这故事 熟悉吗? 走过吗? 无奈吗? 心痛吗?"
人生有限公司
We "clock-in" into the company in the delivery room.
In the first department, your parents are your superiors - Just be obedient.
In the second department, you're manufactured into a product which excel at study and exams.
Third department, learn to manage your finance.
Fourth department, find your other half.
This is our system. Our production line. Our society. There are no holidays in the Life Pte Ltd. There are no answers these questions in life.
"你曾停下过吗 你曾怀疑过吗？
就算你有想法 你也没有办法
人生无限问题 没有解答
追逐富贵荣华 目标飞黄腾达
其实平安到达 就是一种伟大
"
3. Motivation/Inspirational
第二人生
We look forward to wonderful things in life, but most of us aren't putting in effort. Instead, we continue to live the same routine life, day after day, year after year.
We wait for our superheroes to appear.
We wait for miracles.
We wait for god to answer our prayers.
"英雄没有出现 奇迹没有发生"
"等到荒废青春 用尽体温 才开始悔恨"
倔强
There are so many inspirational lines in this song - just listening to it fills you with "stubborn" and determined energy.
"我如果对自己妥协如果对自己说谎, 即使你不原谅我也不能原谅"
"我就是我自己的神在我活的地方"
"你说被火烧过才能出现凤凰"
"逆风的方向更适合飞翔"
勇敢
Even their Hokkien songs are extremely well written. This one give me the energy to go on when times are tough.
When the time come where it seems like all hope is lost, when you're crying and no one knows, when you're drowning in sorrow...
Remember that all these will pass. Darkness will pass and sweet fruits will bear from bitterness. And have that courage to work towards that future.
4. Life & Death
如烟
Personally, I think this is one of the most beautiful lyrics I've seen in any song.
Is there a world where it never goes dark?
Is there a rose which never wither?
Is there a poem which never ends?
Is there a "forever" which never changes?
When we arrive at the end of our life, what regrets will we have? Can I have the chance to re-live my life all over again?
In this song, we experience the regret and agony of having limited life span. Many things we regret. Don't you wish to freeze time, or return to that moment and do something different?
夜访吸血鬼
Interestingly, this song describes the exact opposite of above - the pain and sorrow of immortality. If you ignore the very "wild and rock" tune and focus on the lyrics alone, you'll notice the vampire lead a really sad and miserable life.
Think about it - They witness their love ones die one by one, their dreams (of living normal lives) shatter.
They lost their youth and yet had to be reminded of it constantly. They're lonely. They're forsaken by gods. They have no motivation to carry on living, and yet they can't end their miserable lives, even if they tried suicide by consuming the holy water.
"看爱过的人 一一告别, 做过的梦 一一凋谢, 只留下我独自残喘的千年"
转眼
Writing the final chapter of my biography.
Success is like sandcastle, life is like the sea waves. Money, big houses... everything is but an illusion.
"成就如沙堡 生命如海浪
浪花会掏尽 所有的幻象
存款与楼房 挣扎与渴望 散场"
My children and grandchildren are all busy, let them be.
When I return to the light, will there be someone waiting on the other side?
5. Society Phenomenoms
World has become more orderly over the years, but income equality widens and masses still live in poverty. We have reached peak of civilization, yet people have retreated back into their caves and become more distance. The lines between good and evil are getting blur.
This song lists all the evil and terrible things happening in our society:"
"越来越毒的雨水 越来越多的灾变
律师和小丑勾结 民代和财团签约
越来越大的企业 越来越小的公园"
入阵曲
You really need to do some research to uncover the deep meaning behind this song (or just watch the original MV to catch a glimpse of it)
"當一座城牆 只為了阻擋 所有自由渴望"
A wall that blocks freedom. Clue: This is not describing a physical wall.
"當一份真相 隻手能隱藏 直到人們遺忘"
When the truth can be hidden away until people forget. Countless cases of these.
"幼無糧 民無房 誰在分贓"
Where corruption run rampant.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Even their "typical love ballads" often have unique settings. Just to quote a few:
仓颉 - Even the creator of Chinese characters would be unable to come up with description appropriate to describe my love, to make you return to my side.
超人 - Superman can save the world, but couldn't do anything about our dying love.
"为什么拯救地球是那么容易, 为什么束手无策啊我和你的爱情"
I hope this post will interest readers in exploring more behind the meaning of their songs!
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
My Acquisition Watchlist
FLT ($0.935) = Added by B at 0.935 and Keith at multiple points (huge positions, lowest at 0.905). Provide 0.65c DPU (very conservative estimates. Maiden results exceeded forecast) for ~7% yield. Long yield, strong management and low gearing at 28%. Good for 'pure exposure' to Australia and diverisfy away from SG. I will consider adding at $0.9
Parkway Life REIT ($2.39) = Very defensive and stable with extremely strong financial ratios throughout. However, this comes at huge premium to NAV (1.5 times). Using a conservative 0.115 DPU, yield is only 4.8%, kinda low for a REIT. Will consider adding closer to $2.3 (5% yield)
Capitaland Mall Trust ($1.9) = Largest retail malls backed by Temasek. Latest quarter DPU dropped 6% (largely due to 1-time expenses), leading to annualized DPU of ~11c. Biggest AEI now is rebuilding of Funan (target complete 2019Q4), and lesser extent refurbishing of Raffles City. My biggest concern for retail is the impending arrival of Amazon and other online shopping mediums - hopefully the management has strategies to mitigate these risks. Assuming a DPU of 11c, yield is almost 5.8%. I believe it would be a good deal if I can catch it at about $1.84, below the NAV of $1.86 with a 6% yield.
Mapletree Commercial Trust ($1.42) - Vivocity (40%) and the recently acquired MBC I (~20%) are both extremely good assets, providing a good diversified income. NAV is $1.32, which does mean a slight premium at current price. I am fond of this REIT, but assuming even at the forecasted yield of 8.13c (post MBC acquisition), yield now is merely 5.7% - a bit too low for my taste. Downside could be limited due to preferential offering at $1.42 recently.
Starhill Global ($0.735) = This is a more 'concentrated' choice than Capitaland Mall with higher yield, as it derives near 70% of it revenue from 2 malls - Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City (no doubt 2 very strong ones in the heart of Orchard). Gearing is at 35.1%. NAV 0.91. For this, I would like to use a more conservative 5c dividend going forward with no growth, translating to 6.8% yield. More than 7% yield (at $0.71) would be extremely tempting.
Starhub ($2.8) - How the great has fallen. Taking a very bad outlook of things (falling pay TV and 4th Telco) and assuming they cut dividends to 4c x 5 = 16c going forward, I would want at least 6% yield. This means closer to $2.6. This is on the basis that their fundamentals (mainly looking at their hubbing statistics) do not deteriorate further.
SPH REIT ($0.96) - Strong balance sheet with 26% gearing. Only 2 malls (Pentagon and Clementi Mall) This is my choice in between CMT and Starhill. Has ROFR on Seletar Mall as further growth. Full year DPU is 5.5c, translating to 5.7% yield, a bit too low for my taste. Would look into it should it fall closer to 80cents.
Others
DBS - Below $14
OCBC - Below $8.5
Parkway Life REIT ($2.39) = Very defensive and stable with extremely strong financial ratios throughout. However, this comes at huge premium to NAV (1.5 times). Using a conservative 0.115 DPU, yield is only 4.8%, kinda low for a REIT. Will consider adding closer to $2.3 (5% yield)
Capitaland Mall Trust ($1.9) = Largest retail malls backed by Temasek. Latest quarter DPU dropped 6% (largely due to 1-time expenses), leading to annualized DPU of ~11c. Biggest AEI now is rebuilding of Funan (target complete 2019Q4), and lesser extent refurbishing of Raffles City. My biggest concern for retail is the impending arrival of Amazon and other online shopping mediums - hopefully the management has strategies to mitigate these risks. Assuming a DPU of 11c, yield is almost 5.8%. I believe it would be a good deal if I can catch it at about $1.84, below the NAV of $1.86 with a 6% yield.
Mapletree Commercial Trust ($1.42) - Vivocity (40%) and the recently acquired MBC I (~20%) are both extremely good assets, providing a good diversified income. NAV is $1.32, which does mean a slight premium at current price. I am fond of this REIT, but assuming even at the forecasted yield of 8.13c (post MBC acquisition), yield now is merely 5.7% - a bit too low for my taste. Downside could be limited due to preferential offering at $1.42 recently.
Starhill Global ($0.735) = This is a more 'concentrated' choice than Capitaland Mall with higher yield, as it derives near 70% of it revenue from 2 malls - Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City (no doubt 2 very strong ones in the heart of Orchard). Gearing is at 35.1%. NAV 0.91. For this, I would like to use a more conservative 5c dividend going forward with no growth, translating to 6.8% yield. More than 7% yield (at $0.71) would be extremely tempting.
Starhub ($2.8) - How the great has fallen. Taking a very bad outlook of things (falling pay TV and 4th Telco) and assuming they cut dividends to 4c x 5 = 16c going forward, I would want at least 6% yield. This means closer to $2.6. This is on the basis that their fundamentals (mainly looking at their hubbing statistics) do not deteriorate further.
SPH REIT ($0.96) - Strong balance sheet with 26% gearing. Only 2 malls (Pentagon and Clementi Mall) This is my choice in between CMT and Starhill. Has ROFR on Seletar Mall as further growth. Full year DPU is 5.5c, translating to 5.7% yield, a bit too low for my taste. Would look into it should it fall closer to 80cents.
Others
DBS - Below $14
OCBC - Below $8.5
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q3
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016) | DPU: 11.764c NAV: $1.93 4th quarter DPU was 1.5% lower, mainly due to AEI at Northpoint. Full year DPU is 1.3% higher, marking its 10 year consecutive DPU growth. Financial sheet remains very healthy with ample debt headroom. Yield now around 5.8%. I remain very confident of FCT - Strong management records, potential accretive acquisitions from Waterway Point, new anchor tenants at CCP. They've also just acquired the retail podium of Yishun 10. The recent news of Amazon hitting Singapore early next year could put pressure on all retail REITs (and is dragging down its share price). I will look to accumulate should it should fall to $1.8 (around 6.5% yield) |
Super Group (FY2016Q3) | Awaiting takeover at $1.3 |
Sembcorp Industries (FY2016Q3) | 9M results: Utilities begin to show results, with net profit up 11% excluding 1 time items. More overseas (india and China) plants expected to commence in 4Q. Marine profits plunged 82%. Disastrous, but still profit-making I guess. Overall, 9M Net profit plunged 49% to 12.2 cents. Assuming an annualized EPS I was expecting an annualized EPS of 19 cents, but it looks like it could hit as low as 16 cents now. At 16 cents EPS and 10 cents DPS at $2.5, it's P/E is 15.6 and yield is 4%. NAV is $3.58. Free cash flow was a huge positive due to capex cuts. I am most worried about its debt (interest cover at merely 3.4) |
M1 (FY2016Q3) | Revenue fell 10% and 3Q net profit falls 23.4% - a surprisingly bad result. And the 4th Telco isn't even online yet! Market share and everything else remained stable. The introduction of add-on data (to deter the 4th Telco) have reduced their data revenue significantly IMO. Debt keeps climbing higher, with Debt/Equity now at 1.1 from 0.9 last year. Management guided ~12% decline in profit from 'single digit decline' previously. 9 Months EPS is 12.6. Assuming 15cs full year EPS and 80% payout ratio of 12c DPS at $2.1, P/E is 13 and yield is 5.8%. |
Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q3) | Continue to hold up well with ever so slightly growing DPU. AEI includes Raffles City refurbishing and redevelopment of Gold Shoe Car Park. I am expecitng at least 8.5c (in the worst case) to 9.0c DPU for a long time. At $1.5, this is yielding 6%. |
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q2) | DPU came in about 5% lower compared to last year, attributed to higher than usual occurence of typhoons in Aug and Sep. Visitors and utilization all went lower as a result. Half year DPS is 2.45c (down from 2.58c). Overall, nothing to be concern about if we believe that the DPU will remain "stable over the long term". Assuming a conservative 4.8c annual dividend, yield is around 7.4% (I am not hopeful of 9.6% present in the slides) |
ST Engineering (FY2016Q3) | Results is not that bad despite the headlines fell in net profits due to 1 off $61M provision. Management guided comparable revenue and lower PBT compared to last year. Expect 15c dividends to be very safe based on strong order books, track records and cashpile. Will look to add this should it hit $3. (5% yield) |
Straits Times Index (FY2016) | Not Applicable |
Friday, November 11, 2016
3 Weeks Break!
My top priorities for this vacation, asides from relaxing, recharging, and energizing myself, are:
1. House & Comp Spring Cleaning
2. Portfolio Review - To come up with a systematic and streamlined process to handle my portfolio and other finances going forward.
3. Exercise - At least to get back a bit into shape for upcoming IPPT.
To ensure I do not "waste" this once in a blue moon holiday, I'm going to track the general things I'm doing each day. This is to make sure I meet the goals I'm planning.
My House/Comp Spring Cleaning is going to be my largest and most comprehensive to date. Many of the items dumped will be documented in the Minimalist Lifestyle post.
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6/11 - Hearthstone Worlds Championship + Board Games Meetup
7/11 - Portfolio Review, Comp Spring Cleaning, Civ 6
8/11 - Civ 6, Swimming, Planet Earth II
9/11 - Drive Parents Around, Tailor Office Wear
10/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning, Factory Reset S6 For Sale
11/11 - Trip to JB
12/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning [Cleared my bedroom entire upper cabinet]
13/11 - Board Games Meetup
14/11 - House Spring Cleaning [Dump even more stuff - SAS/University/BAML] + Board Game Meetup
15/11 - New Job Admin Stuff + Planet Earth II + House Spring Cleaning [Prepare to dump lot of gaming-related stuffs]
16/11 - Haircut + Collect Clothes + Death Note + Spam 最强大脑
17/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Board Game Meetup
18/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Portfolio Review
19/11 - International Games Day
20/11 - Board Games Meetup
21/11 - Portfolio Review
22/11 - Family Outing
23/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning
24/11 - Swimming + Shopping
1. House & Comp Spring Cleaning
2. Portfolio Review - To come up with a systematic and streamlined process to handle my portfolio and other finances going forward.
3. Exercise - At least to get back a bit into shape for upcoming IPPT.
To ensure I do not "waste" this once in a blue moon holiday, I'm going to track the general things I'm doing each day. This is to make sure I meet the goals I'm planning.
My House/Comp Spring Cleaning is going to be my largest and most comprehensive to date. Many of the items dumped will be documented in the Minimalist Lifestyle post.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/11 - Hearthstone Worlds Championship + Board Games Meetup
7/11 - Portfolio Review, Comp Spring Cleaning, Civ 6
8/11 - Civ 6, Swimming, Planet Earth II
9/11 - Drive Parents Around, Tailor Office Wear
10/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning, Factory Reset S6 For Sale
11/11 - Trip to JB
12/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning [Cleared my bedroom entire upper cabinet]
13/11 - Board Games Meetup
14/11 - House Spring Cleaning [Dump even more stuff - SAS/University/BAML] + Board Game Meetup
15/11 - New Job Admin Stuff + Planet Earth II + House Spring Cleaning [Prepare to dump lot of gaming-related stuffs]
16/11 - Haircut + Collect Clothes + Death Note + Spam 最强大脑
17/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Board Game Meetup
18/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Portfolio Review
19/11 - International Games Day
20/11 - Board Games Meetup
21/11 - Portfolio Review
22/11 - Family Outing
23/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning
24/11 - Swimming + Shopping
Friday, November 04, 2016
Final Memories
I may not be around anymore, but these will stay on with me for a long time. Thank you for the memories:
1. Rubbish lah!
2. Jin Bad! (Jin bad lah you!)
3. I think can! / Also can!
4. Jialuk
5. Don't waste my time!
6. You call yourself engineer
7. Give free I take
8. Add to Cart (ATC)
9. Easy la this one!
10. My part considered done.
11. Tomorrow/Tuesday/Friday my last day.
12. You are the pillar... without you the stock will crash.
13. One Click! (One Click $200K)
14. Power lah you.
15. Trueeeeeeeeeee.
16. Bo bian mah bo bian.
17. I cannot accept this.
18. Sugar blast.
19. Why you always plot me.
20. I cannot accept this.
21. 太过谦虚就会变得虚伪 / 少给我你的虚伪
22. Aiya 你不会明白的啦
23. Suan liao suan liao.
24. 小事小事，不用担心
25. I'll catch up.
26. You cheat my feeling.
27. Just upload.
28. You evillllllllll.
29. PT / Apink / Your Best Friend / Lucy / Nancy / Rubbish Man / Aquaman ... ... Jian Die (Spy) / Chewable / Champagne / Gong Kway / Poko / Princess...
30. All the Mummies, Taikors, Jiejies and Korkors
Sunday, October 02, 2016
Letter To Shareholders (4) - Performance Review 2016Q3
Welcome to the 4th issue of ZZ Holdings Shareholders Letter.
Performance Highlights
Global markets continue to be volatile, led by interest rates concerns, upcoming US elections and fears on the health of Deutsche Bank.
Locally, STI is flat - gaining a mere 1% quarter on quarter and year to date. The likely entry of the 4th Telco and non-performing loans of O&G seems to be exerting its pressure on the STI (roughly 40% made up by Singtel & 3 Banks).
Our portfolio performed slightly better, gaining 1.5% quarter on quarter, and roughly 12% year to date. We are now roughly break-even since IPO (on 1st Jan 2015).
In 3rd quarter, we paid out dividends of over $800. This is over 50% more compared to $500 last year. We will continue to build up recurring income, brick by brick, little by little.
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up around 8% mainly due to increased revenue and dividends. Actual percentage were lower due to the absence of the one-time SG50 bonus in July 2015.
Expenses were much higher largely due to re-contracting and signing of Samsung Galaxy S7 in July, and gift expense to our parent company in August.
Accounting changes took place which affected the expenses for August - The company decides to perform monthly deduction of income tax instead of one-time lump sum deduction in August 2015.
The main reason is to set it in line with the actual cashflow expenses, and spread out this expense over the year instead of misleadingly inflating August expense. This mean that every month expense will be slightly higher compared to Year 2015 from this quarter onwards.
Note: The income tax for a specific year starts in May and ends in April. For example. The income tax for year 2015 is paid from May 2016 to April 2017.
For the 4th quarter, we forsee higher expenses due to higher social and entertainment activities, as well as costs related to the structural revamp.
Investment - Frasers Centrepoint (FCL)
FCL is one of the largest real estate company on SGX with business units focusing mainly in Singapore & Australia, spreading across the entire chain of residential, commercial, hospitality and industrial properties. It hold stakes in 4 of the Frasers REITs, and as of 9M2016, derives around 70% of its profits from recurring income. This makes it ideal as a dividend and growth play (30% property development).
At $1.48, it trades at more than 30% discount to its book value of $2.19. 9M2016 EPS is 11.9 cents. Annualized conservatively, we expect EPS to be at least 15 cents.
FCL dividend policy is to distribute up to 75% (although usually around 50-60%) of its core earnings, which is in line with 0.86 cents in the past 2 years. Assuming it is able to retain its dividend, this presents a yield of around 5.8%.
Key risk include interest rates hikes as FCL is considered to be quite highly geared (interest cover of 6 and gearing of 0.7). At current valuation, we feel that there is sufficient margin of safety and see it as a good value play. Given its diversified investments, we see this as a mini "Property ETF" that we can hold indefinitely.
Major Structural Change
The company will be undergoing a major structural change in Nov. Revenue in Oct will be slightly affected, and Nov to be majorly (~90%) affected. A one-time asset (leave encash) sale is expected to help offset this revenue loss.
Thereafter, revenue should resume in December and see positive progression in the long term.
Financial Status
We intend to open a Bank of China (BOC) SmartSaver account - designed to takeover OCBC360. This is expected to increase our standard interest rates from 1.75% to 2%, and possibly 3.55% should we meet the required conditions.
[Afternote: After trying out BOC, we were hit with a few major pain points. The internet banking is bad and lack of mobile banking, no e-statements. For the meantime, we feel that the additional admin work is not worth it.]
Maxigain bonus interest is now 0.6%, and should exceed CIMB Fastsaver regardless of the SIBOR soon.
As per last quarter, we continue to anticipate the following services and events in the last quarter of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the hot-dividend period winding down, our focus now shifts to preparation for Year 2017. We will start accumulating positions in high dividend investment for the long term with the objective of taking a great leap in dividends amount. This will be further detailed and set in the Annual Report.
Performance Highlights
Global markets continue to be volatile, led by interest rates concerns, upcoming US elections and fears on the health of Deutsche Bank.
Locally, STI is flat - gaining a mere 1% quarter on quarter and year to date. The likely entry of the 4th Telco and non-performing loans of O&G seems to be exerting its pressure on the STI (roughly 40% made up by Singtel & 3 Banks).
Our portfolio performed slightly better, gaining 1.5% quarter on quarter, and roughly 12% year to date. We are now roughly break-even since IPO (on 1st Jan 2015).
In 3rd quarter, we paid out dividends of over $800. This is over 50% more compared to $500 last year. We will continue to build up recurring income, brick by brick, little by little.
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up around 8% mainly due to increased revenue and dividends. Actual percentage were lower due to the absence of the one-time SG50 bonus in July 2015.
Expenses were much higher largely due to re-contracting and signing of Samsung Galaxy S7 in July, and gift expense to our parent company in August.
Accounting changes took place which affected the expenses for August - The company decides to perform monthly deduction of income tax instead of one-time lump sum deduction in August 2015.
The main reason is to set it in line with the actual cashflow expenses, and spread out this expense over the year instead of misleadingly inflating August expense. This mean that every month expense will be slightly higher compared to Year 2015 from this quarter onwards.
Note: The income tax for a specific year starts in May and ends in April. For example. The income tax for year 2015 is paid from May 2016 to April 2017.
For the 4th quarter, we forsee higher expenses due to higher social and entertainment activities, as well as costs related to the structural revamp.
Investment - Frasers Centrepoint (FCL)
FCL is one of the largest real estate company on SGX with business units focusing mainly in Singapore & Australia, spreading across the entire chain of residential, commercial, hospitality and industrial properties. It hold stakes in 4 of the Frasers REITs, and as of 9M2016, derives around 70% of its profits from recurring income. This makes it ideal as a dividend and growth play (30% property development).
At $1.48, it trades at more than 30% discount to its book value of $2.19. 9M2016 EPS is 11.9 cents. Annualized conservatively, we expect EPS to be at least 15 cents.
FCL dividend policy is to distribute up to 75% (although usually around 50-60%) of its core earnings, which is in line with 0.86 cents in the past 2 years. Assuming it is able to retain its dividend, this presents a yield of around 5.8%.
Key risk include interest rates hikes as FCL is considered to be quite highly geared (interest cover of 6 and gearing of 0.7). At current valuation, we feel that there is sufficient margin of safety and see it as a good value play. Given its diversified investments, we see this as a mini "Property ETF" that we can hold indefinitely.
Major Structural Change
The company will be undergoing a major structural change in Nov. Revenue in Oct will be slightly affected, and Nov to be majorly (~90%) affected. A one-time asset (leave encash) sale is expected to help offset this revenue loss.
Thereafter, revenue should resume in December and see positive progression in the long term.
Financial Status
We intend to open a Bank of China (BOC) SmartSaver account - designed to takeover OCBC360. This is expected to increase our standard interest rates from 1.75% to 2%, and possibly 3.55% should we meet the required conditions.
[Afternote: After trying out BOC, we were hit with a few major pain points. The internet banking is bad and lack of mobile banking, no e-statements. For the meantime, we feel that the additional admin work is not worth it.]
Maxigain bonus interest is now 0.6%, and should exceed CIMB Fastsaver regardless of the SIBOR soon.
As per last quarter, we continue to anticipate the following services and events in the last quarter of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the hot-dividend period winding down, our focus now shifts to preparation for Year 2017. We will start accumulating positions in high dividend investment for the long term with the objective of taking a great leap in dividends amount. This will be further detailed and set in the Annual Report.
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Financial Literacy - Insurance
It pains me to see people I care about that are so apathetic, ignorant, or even plain stubborn about financial literacy.
They can scrimp on 10 and 20 cents when groceries shopping, when buying food, when taking public transport, but have no qualms about giving thousands of dollars to insurance agents.
And the worst part, I can't convince them.
I can't get them out of their old mindsets.
They can always counter with:
1. Everyone will eventually dies.
2. If I don't save through insurance, I'll spend it anyway.
Haiz...
I am not against insurance in anyway, but people still don't understand that insurance is an expense and NOT savings.
People don't understand expense eats into your cashflow, and there are much, MUCH better alternatives that are safer, have greater liquidity and has no penalties.
Alas... I can't convince them, and I'm not going to try anymore.
I don't want such debates to spoil our relationship.
They can scrimp on 10 and 20 cents when groceries shopping, when buying food, when taking public transport, but have no qualms about giving thousands of dollars to insurance agents.
And the worst part, I can't convince them.
I can't get them out of their old mindsets.
They can always counter with:
1. Everyone will eventually dies.
2. If I don't save through insurance, I'll spend it anyway.
Haiz...
I am not against insurance in anyway, but people still don't understand that insurance is an expense and NOT savings.
People don't understand expense eats into your cashflow, and there are much, MUCH better alternatives that are safer, have greater liquidity and has no penalties.
Alas... I can't convince them, and I'm not going to try anymore.
I don't want such debates to spoil our relationship.
Monday, September 26, 2016
Singapore Wedding
"Unfortunately, many couples spare no thoughts on how their guests are experiencing the wedding celebration. It's mostly all about them them them.
Can couples please aim to provide their guests a good experience instead of focusing on the "me-me-me" mentality and "how to make a profit" mentality ? Sure, it's the couple's wedding but all your guests are making sacrifices of both monetary as well as non-monetary value to attend your celebration in many ways. The least you can do is to have the decency to ensure they have a good time instead of thinking how to profit from them.
1) Guests have to make time out of their precious weekend to spend several hours on a mostly boring run-of-the-mill type of celebration instead of tending to their important family matters like visiting their sick parents or bonding with their kids instead.
2) Most guests will have to fork out cab fare to get to a boring run-of-the-mill type of location. It can get very expensive if it's in town and during peak hours. Or if your guests live in the more ulu parts of Singapore.
3) Many female(and also male) guests will have to spend extra money on dry cleaning their outfit after attending your wedding. And don't forget the time it takes to style and groom their appearances too.
4) If seated with strangers, they have to pretend to enjoy making small talks with people whom they do not know and have no interest in knowing and will likely never meet again in a thousand year.
5) They will have to go through cringing "entertainments" such as watching your how-you-met-each-other powerpoint slides smiling and laughing pretending that it's the most moving and touching love story they have ever heard in their entire life.
5) Last but not least, after sacrificing and doing all of the above they are still obligated to give you the most bo liao gift of all - an angbao that in no way justifies any of the food that they had eaten.
Going to a wedding banquet is one of the most non-productive activity anyone can do. If anything, it is counter productive for most people but many will still do it because they regard the couple as good friends, good relatives and family members."
Can couples please aim to provide their guests a good experience instead of focusing on the "me-me-me" mentality and "how to make a profit" mentality ? Sure, it's the couple's wedding but all your guests are making sacrifices of both monetary as well as non-monetary value to attend your celebration in many ways. The least you can do is to have the decency to ensure they have a good time instead of thinking how to profit from them.
1) Guests have to make time out of their precious weekend to spend several hours on a mostly boring run-of-the-mill type of celebration instead of tending to their important family matters like visiting their sick parents or bonding with their kids instead.
2) Most guests will have to fork out cab fare to get to a boring run-of-the-mill type of location. It can get very expensive if it's in town and during peak hours. Or if your guests live in the more ulu parts of Singapore.
3) Many female(and also male) guests will have to spend extra money on dry cleaning their outfit after attending your wedding. And don't forget the time it takes to style and groom their appearances too.
4) If seated with strangers, they have to pretend to enjoy making small talks with people whom they do not know and have no interest in knowing and will likely never meet again in a thousand year.
5) They will have to go through cringing "entertainments" such as watching your how-you-met-each-other powerpoint slides smiling and laughing pretending that it's the most moving and touching love story they have ever heard in their entire life.
5) Last but not least, after sacrificing and doing all of the above they are still obligated to give you the most bo liao gift of all - an angbao that in no way justifies any of the food that they had eaten.
Going to a wedding banquet is one of the most non-productive activity anyone can do. If anything, it is counter productive for most people but many will still do it because they regard the couple as good friends, good relatives and family members."
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Minimalist Lifestyle
The Less You Have, The More You Own
"You won't find happiness in a brand new car or the latest iPhone. Once that initial excitement whizz off, and it will, you still have to make the monthly payment. You're happy in the moment, sure, but only because the thrill is in the chase. Ultimately, the void you're trying to fill will not be fill with stuff."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have been instilled with the idea of a minimalistic lifestyle for a while now, and even more so recently.
In the future, I'm going to take a "dump or digitize and dump" approach - Insurance papers, bill statements, receipts, etc...
Anything not needed (few months to 1 year) should be dump, or digitize and dump.
Past few weeks I've also been doing a spring cleaning of my stuff.
Products documents: IT gadgets and old components, many which are no longer functioning and I've thrown away, and yet somehow I'm still holding on to their "packagings", "user manuals", "receipts", "quick start guides", which I haven't used since I brought them and won't ever use again.
Old Handphones & Gadgets: Are you really going to use back to using your old HPs when your current one fails? Don't kid yourself. You'll 100% buy a new one. The same thing goes for PC components. Really.
I also have computer components dating back to pre 2006. Yes, before I even built my first full system. Floppy drives, 256MB DDR rams, 80GB hard drives, sound cards and who knows what obscure graphic card.
And what's more? Some extremely obsolete items that I have no idea are still rotting in my cupboard. Examples:
- Sony Ericsson HP earphone connectors/Bluetooth (Some weird proprietary nonsense)
- Creative Zen Stone (it is using some old form of USB that I can't even find the cable to)
- Some 'really dusty' headpieces that I don't even know if they are working anymore
- STACKS and STACKS of foolscap paper, notebooks, notepads, etc... that date as far back as my PRIMARY SCHOOL.
I'm also hoping to slowly consolidate the old files I have on CDs (each 600Mbs) to a external hard drive where I can keep everything.
Don't buy useless stuff you don't need.
Afternote: Also 'mass unsubscribe' to dozens of useless email groups and clear my mailboxes.
"You won't find happiness in a brand new car or the latest iPhone. Once that initial excitement whizz off, and it will, you still have to make the monthly payment. You're happy in the moment, sure, but only because the thrill is in the chase. Ultimately, the void you're trying to fill will not be fill with stuff."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have been instilled with the idea of a minimalistic lifestyle for a while now, and even more so recently.
In the future, I'm going to take a "dump or digitize and dump" approach - Insurance papers, bill statements, receipts, etc...
Anything not needed (few months to 1 year) should be dump, or digitize and dump.
Past few weeks I've also been doing a spring cleaning of my stuff.
Products documents: IT gadgets and old components, many which are no longer functioning and I've thrown away, and yet somehow I'm still holding on to their "packagings", "user manuals", "receipts", "quick start guides", which I haven't used since I brought them and won't ever use again.
Old Handphones & Gadgets: Are you really going to use back to using your old HPs when your current one fails? Don't kid yourself. You'll 100% buy a new one. The same thing goes for PC components. Really.
I also have computer components dating back to pre 2006. Yes, before I even built my first full system. Floppy drives, 256MB DDR rams, 80GB hard drives, sound cards and who knows what obscure graphic card.
And what's more? Some extremely obsolete items that I have no idea are still rotting in my cupboard. Examples:
- Sony Ericsson HP earphone connectors/Bluetooth (Some weird proprietary nonsense)
- Creative Zen Stone (it is using some old form of USB that I can't even find the cable to)
- Some 'really dusty' headpieces that I don't even know if they are working anymore
- STACKS and STACKS of foolscap paper, notebooks, notepads, etc... that date as far back as my PRIMARY SCHOOL.
Don't buy useless stuff you don't need.
Afternote: Also 'mass unsubscribe' to dozens of useless email groups and clear my mailboxes.
Friday, September 09, 2016
Road to FIRE - Finite Time
The older I got, the more I realized how finite our life on this planet is.
Every day we spent, we are never going to get back.
That makes me even more determined to reach FIRE.
Do you want to endure the political bullshit of the working world for 40 years of your life?
Do you want to waste your one and only life on climbing the corporate ladder?
Do you want to put on a false front to make "connections" so that you can clinch more businesses?
Do you want to suffer humiliation when you are middle-aged and be forced to take up terrible jobs to make a living?
Human capital is limited.
We need to make hay while our sun shines.
I believe there's greater things in life than focusing all your energies on chasing more numbers.
Our time in this world is finite.
The struggles are real, but so is our courage.
"Work hard now, so we don't have to work hard all our lives."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The biggest benefit of financial freedom (IMO), is the ability to walk away from toxic bosses and workplaces without fear over your financial situation. Granted, it is easier to do so for singles, but if you have a wife that shares the same values as you, the support will be great.
After going through many things in life, I come to the conclusion that life is about being happy and being able to do what you want to do. It's not about chasing after some career goal or earning a high pay if you hate what you do such that you wake up every morning hating to go down to office, or that your health suffers from it.
"My motto in life is 先苦后甜. Those who want to YOLO it is their own life. It is not funny when you are 50 years old and still broke especially in a country such as Singapore."
Every day we spent, we are never going to get back.
That makes me even more determined to reach FIRE.
Do you want to endure the political bullshit of the working world for 40 years of your life?
Do you want to waste your one and only life on climbing the corporate ladder?
Do you want to put on a false front to make "connections" so that you can clinch more businesses?
Do you want to suffer humiliation when you are middle-aged and be forced to take up terrible jobs to make a living?
Human capital is limited.
We need to make hay while our sun shines.
I believe there's greater things in life than focusing all your energies on chasing more numbers.
Our time in this world is finite.
The struggles are real, but so is our courage.
"Work hard now, so we don't have to work hard all our lives."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The biggest benefit of financial freedom (IMO), is the ability to walk away from toxic bosses and workplaces without fear over your financial situation. Granted, it is easier to do so for singles, but if you have a wife that shares the same values as you, the support will be great.
After going through many things in life, I come to the conclusion that life is about being happy and being able to do what you want to do. It's not about chasing after some career goal or earning a high pay if you hate what you do such that you wake up every morning hating to go down to office, or that your health suffers from it.
"My motto in life is 先苦后甜. Those who want to YOLO it is their own life. It is not funny when you are 50 years old and still broke especially in a country such as Singapore."
Friday, August 19, 2016
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q2
| Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016Q2) | DPU in previous vs current: $0.116 - > $0.120 Price in previous vs current: $2.00 -> $2.17 Yield in previous vs current: 5.8% -> 5.5% BV in previous vs current: $1.91-> $1.90 Revenue dipped as expected due to Northpoint AEI. Income was stable due to retained distributions from previous quarter, and higher management fee in units. Debt remains healthy. |
| Super Group (FY2016Q2) | EPS in previous vs current: $0.0424 EPS in previous Q2 vs current: $0.094 -> 0.088 DPU in previous vs current: $0.010 -> $0.010 Price in previous vs current: $0.90 -> $0.78 Tolerable results with profits dropping "just" 7%. The reasons for holding remains the same as before - strong operating cash flow (and FCF) and balance sheet with good margins. I am estimating 4 cents earning for the year. No turnaround in sight so this will be in the freezer for a while. |
| Sembcorp Industries (FY20161H) | EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.20 -> $0.97 DPU in previous 1H vs current: $0.05 -> $0.04 Price in previous vs current: $2.7 -> $2.8 Yield in previous vs current: 4.0% -> 2.8% BV in previous vs current: $3.6 -> $3.6 (~$3.3 excl. pref shares) Surprising hit on Utilities segment, although I am still confident in the long-term fundamentals of India. Marine as expected post disastrous results. Assuming an annualized EPS of 19cents, P/E at current price is 14.7. |
| M1 (FY2016Q2) | EPS in 2014 vs 2015: $0.191 -> $0.191 EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.096 -> $0.089 DPU in previous vs current: $0.153 -> $0.153 Price in previous vs current: $2.48 -> $2.78 Yield in previous vs current: 6.2% -> 5.5% Management guided single digit decline in profit. Not good at all. Interim dividends of 7c is maintained. They are investing in new technologies but it will take the longer term to see any payoff. |
| Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q2) | DPU in 2014 vs 2015: $0.086 -> $0.086 DPU in previous Q2 vs current: $0.0219 -> $0.0220 Price in previous vs current: $1.4 -> $1.55 Yield in previous vs current: 6.1% -> 5.5% BV in previous vs current: $1.72 -> $1.72 Flat results and DPU should be maintained. I don't see any upsides or downsides now, and at this price it's probably fully valued. |
| Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q1) | DPU in previous Q1 vs current: $0.00176 -> $0.0182 (12M: $0.0663) Price in previous vs current: $0.65 -> $0.68 Yield in previous vs current: ~10% BV in previous vs current: $0.89 -> $0.96 Slight decrease in operating income (2.3%) due to heavy rains and earthquake, but DPU increased slightly due to Yen appreciation. Profits after tax is 6% lower. No of visitors and utilization rate went slightly lower due to above reasons, but should not pose too much concern. This is still trading at a huge discount to NAV which is my safety net. My yield cow for the long term. |
| ST Engineering (FY2016Q2) | Flattish results but management foresee lower profits compared to 2015. This is in contrast with the "comparable profits" guidance given earlier, leading to selldown in share price. |
| Straits Times Index (FY2016) | Not Applicable |
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Mayday Just Rock It 2016
Attended my 3rd Mayday concert after a 3 year hiatus.
Song List (credits to Benjamin)
1. Do You Ever Shine
2. 三個傻瓜
3. 你不是真正的快樂
4. 為愛而生
5. 超人
6. 雌雄同體
7. 候鳥
8. 終結孤單
9. 尬車
10. 離開地球表面
11. 諾亞方舟
12. 知足
13. 瘋狂世界
14. 志明與春嬌
15. 笑忘歌
16. 盛夏光年
17. 頑固
18. 乾杯
19. 將軍令
20. 入陣曲
21. 我不願讓你一個人
22. 勇敢
23. 憨人
24. 一個蘋果
25. 人生海海
26. 派對動物
27. 傷心的人別聽慢歌
28. 如果我們不曾相遇
29. 溫柔
31. 後來的我們
32. 突然好想你
33. 兄弟
34. 人生有限公司
35. OAOA
36. 倔強
37. 戀愛ing
I went back and take a look at the review of the first Mayday concert I attended, and I can spot many similarities.
Pros:
1. They retained many "classic segments" of their concerts - in particular the "La~La la la~" of 憨人 and the "white butterflies climax" of 温柔. These 桥段 never gets old despite being re-used for a long time. They are some of my favourite parts of the concert.
2. Once again a "superb value for money" concert that lasts from 8:10pm to 11:45, over 3.5 hours. I believe most concerts are usually around 30 songs in 3 hours, but they always push it a little more to give back to their fans.
3. Awesome new high songs since their last concert. The "將軍令 + 入陣曲" portion was incredible.
4. They slot in some lesser known songs like 三個傻瓜, 雌雄同體, and also some hokkien ballads (志明與春嬌, 勇敢) which I felt was a nice touch. Pity that they seem to have took out 夜访吸血鬼 (1 of my favourite) in the Singapore concert.
5. I enjoyed their interactions (aka talking) with the fans a lot. It felt genuine and add a personal touch to the concert.
6. The most exhilarating finale to a concert I've experienced!
Cons:
1. After re-reading the 1st review, I actually mentioned that I should have brought seating area tickets. Must keep that in mind next time! I feel it's no point getting the "ground-level" seats as you are often blocked by people, and spend most of the time watching the screen anyway.
2. Not really a con but more of due to the theme of the concert being "Rock", the song proportion were allocated that way. If you look at the song list, about 80% of them were more fast-paced/rock/high songs, and hence the remaining are allocated to their most well-known ballads. You will miss out a lot of their 'secondary' ballads, most notably: 仓颉，星空，步步，如烟，天使.
3. Compared to the Noah Ark concert, this one has a much weaker theme in my opinion. The previous one has a strong overarching plot - The end of the World. Each segment is divided by short video clips telling the story of the lead struggles with the nuclear power project. The world is eventually destroyed and he travels back to the past to change history. (The fact that I still vaguely remember the storyline even now shows how good it is) The songs fits very well and it's like watching a movie. Anyway, you can't have everything right?
Talking Portion
High to the max!
Awesome finale!
Song List (credits to Benjamin)
1. Do You Ever Shine
2. 三個傻瓜
3. 你不是真正的快樂
4. 為愛而生
5. 超人
6. 雌雄同體
7. 候鳥
8. 終結孤單
9. 尬車
10. 離開地球表面
11. 諾亞方舟
12. 知足
13. 瘋狂世界
14. 志明與春嬌
15. 笑忘歌
16. 盛夏光年
17. 頑固
18. 乾杯
19. 將軍令
20. 入陣曲
21. 我不願讓你一個人
22. 勇敢
23. 憨人
24. 一個蘋果
25. 人生海海
26. 派對動物
27. 傷心的人別聽慢歌
28. 如果我們不曾相遇
29. 溫柔
31. 後來的我們
32. 突然好想你
33. 兄弟
34. 人生有限公司
35. OAOA
36. 倔強
37. 戀愛ing
I went back and take a look at the review of the first Mayday concert I attended, and I can spot many similarities.
Pros:
1. They retained many "classic segments" of their concerts - in particular the "La~La la la~" of 憨人 and the "white butterflies climax" of 温柔. These 桥段 never gets old despite being re-used for a long time. They are some of my favourite parts of the concert.
2. Once again a "superb value for money" concert that lasts from 8:10pm to 11:45, over 3.5 hours. I believe most concerts are usually around 30 songs in 3 hours, but they always push it a little more to give back to their fans.
3. Awesome new high songs since their last concert. The "將軍令 + 入陣曲" portion was incredible.
4. They slot in some lesser known songs like 三個傻瓜, 雌雄同體, and also some hokkien ballads (志明與春嬌, 勇敢) which I felt was a nice touch. Pity that they seem to have took out 夜访吸血鬼 (1 of my favourite) in the Singapore concert.
5. I enjoyed their interactions (aka talking) with the fans a lot. It felt genuine and add a personal touch to the concert.
6. The most exhilarating finale to a concert I've experienced!
Cons:
1. After re-reading the 1st review, I actually mentioned that I should have brought seating area tickets. Must keep that in mind next time! I feel it's no point getting the "ground-level" seats as you are often blocked by people, and spend most of the time watching the screen anyway.
2. Not really a con but more of due to the theme of the concert being "Rock", the song proportion were allocated that way. If you look at the song list, about 80% of them were more fast-paced/rock/high songs, and hence the remaining are allocated to their most well-known ballads. You will miss out a lot of their 'secondary' ballads, most notably: 仓颉，星空，步步，如烟，天使.
3. Compared to the Noah Ark concert, this one has a much weaker theme in my opinion. The previous one has a strong overarching plot - The end of the World. Each segment is divided by short video clips telling the story of the lead struggles with the nuclear power project. The world is eventually destroyed and he travels back to the past to change history. (The fact that I still vaguely remember the storyline even now shows how good it is) The songs fits very well and it's like watching a movie. Anyway, you can't have everything right?
Talking Portion
High to the max!
Awesome finale!
Sunday, July 17, 2016
CPF - OA to SA Transfer
After much deliberation, I finally decided to do it.
It's one that decision that I cracked my brains over back in January, but I think it's time I take the first step. What prompted the change of mind?
1. The market rebounded and I didn't even invest my cash, much less CPF-OA. Timing the market is harder than you think, and it's definitely not guaranteed that I am comfortable using OA to beat 2.5%.
2. I realized my CPF-SA is accumulating very slowly from Mandatory Contribution. At this rate, It is going to take forever to reach $161K, or whatever the FRS in the future.
3. Do you know you enjoy an extra 1% interest on your first $60K, but only $20K can come from OA? That means if I do the transfer, I earn a whole extra 2.5%.
4. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably won't be getting a flat for another 5 years. That means another full 5 years of OA accumulation.
5. I do admit I am strongly influenced by AK and several other bloggers. These guys are getting $6K-$10K in interest every year. (Some of them maxed out SA as early as 32 years old) The government is literally helping them fulfill the growing "minimum sum".
---
By transferring this $20K, I would accelerate my SA account at a much faster rate.
In the first year, I would earn an extra $500+ in interest.
For 10 years, I would get an extra $6.4K.
For 20 years, an extra $15K.
By the time I'm 55, this $20K would bring me more than $20K in additional interest. That means an additional $20K towards fulfilling the FRS.
---
Of course, I am well-aware of the risks. The most important ones are:
1. Less buffer for housing. I have plans to fully pay my flat with cash and minimize the usage of CPF. Still, it is definitely important to leave buffer - which explains why I'm not transferring more.
2. Political risk. Who knows how the withdrawal rules, schemes and interest rates may change in the future?
3. Possible opportunity cost if I ever want to purchase a 2nd property, and unable to withdraw until 55.
In a way, this move is a strong contrast with FIRE. With less OA, it means I have to fork out more cash for housing, and thus weaken my FIRE goals.
It's looking at a time much further in the future. I want to balance my goal of early financial independence, and also start steering the 'old age' ship in the right direction.
---
Overall, I think I'm taking a prudent and balanced approach - using an amount that isn't exorbitant and I am confident of covering.
The last thing you want to worried about when you're old and sick is money. I think what I am doing is taking a small portion of early financial freedom and channeling it into greater old age security.
It's one that decision that I cracked my brains over back in January, but I think it's time I take the first step. What prompted the change of mind?
1. The market rebounded and I didn't even invest my cash, much less CPF-OA. Timing the market is harder than you think, and it's definitely not guaranteed that I am comfortable using OA to beat 2.5%.
2. I realized my CPF-SA is accumulating very slowly from Mandatory Contribution. At this rate, It is going to take forever to reach $161K, or whatever the FRS in the future.
3. Do you know you enjoy an extra 1% interest on your first $60K, but only $20K can come from OA? That means if I do the transfer, I earn a whole extra 2.5%.
4. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I probably won't be getting a flat for another 5 years. That means another full 5 years of OA accumulation.
5. I do admit I am strongly influenced by AK and several other bloggers. These guys are getting $6K-$10K in interest every year. (Some of them maxed out SA as early as 32 years old) The government is literally helping them fulfill the growing "minimum sum".
---
By transferring this $20K, I would accelerate my SA account at a much faster rate.
In the first year, I would earn an extra $500+ in interest.
For 10 years, I would get an extra $6.4K.
For 20 years, an extra $15K.
By the time I'm 55, this $20K would bring me more than $20K in additional interest. That means an additional $20K towards fulfilling the FRS.
---
Of course, I am well-aware of the risks. The most important ones are:
1. Less buffer for housing. I have plans to fully pay my flat with cash and minimize the usage of CPF. Still, it is definitely important to leave buffer - which explains why I'm not transferring more.
2. Political risk. Who knows how the withdrawal rules, schemes and interest rates may change in the future?
3. Possible opportunity cost if I ever want to purchase a 2nd property, and unable to withdraw until 55.
In a way, this move is a strong contrast with FIRE. With less OA, it means I have to fork out more cash for housing, and thus weaken my FIRE goals.
It's looking at a time much further in the future. I want to balance my goal of early financial independence, and also start steering the 'old age' ship in the right direction.
---
Overall, I think I'm taking a prudent and balanced approach - using an amount that isn't exorbitant and I am confident of covering.
The last thing you want to worried about when you're old and sick is money. I think what I am doing is taking a small portion of early financial freedom and channeling it into greater old age security.
Monday, July 04, 2016
Letter To Shareholders (3) - Performance Review 2016Q2
Welcome to the 3rd issue of ZZ Holdings Shareholders Letter.
Performance Highlights
Despite the surprising Brexit event, the markets were unfazed and our portfolio made gains of 5.7% in Q2, compared to the STI which was up a mere 0.7% (a large potion was thanks to CMP divestment). With this recovery, our overall portfolio is now almost in the green.
In 2nd quarter, we paid out a record dividend of over $1300 - highest amount ever since inception. Who says financial freedom is a dream?
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up slightly (about 5% more), largely due to an increase in passive income and dividends.
Expenses skyrocketed in May due to a critical mismanagement event. The board unreservedly apologize to the shareholders for this loss. Other major contributors includes Mayday Concert ($290) and multiple unexpected costs such as SSD Replacement ($250), IEM Cable Replacement ($70) & 2 Dental Visits ($100 after subsidies).
Overall, expenses for the quarter were up 65% compared to last year. Moving forward, we foresee the possibility of a phone replacement, and to a lesser extent some computer components, as potential major expenses in the 2nd half of the year.
Takeover of China Merchant Pacific (CMP)
We divested CMP at the takeover price of $1.02, over 20% premium over the trading range of 80c and 85c. This was entirely pure luck.
Regardless, the company made over $1500 from this unexpected takeover. While we are pleased, do keep in mind that this is an one-time income. At the same time, the company lost a dividend cash-cow and we will look to redirect the monies into other companies.
Financial Statistics (SGXCafe)
We setup account at SGXCafe to further analyze our portfolio. Base on our current holdings, here are some statistics:
Beta - Surprisingly, our portfolio is less volatile than the STI, standing at 0.71.
Value at Risk - We are 99% confident that we will not lose more than 9% of our portfolio.
Expected Shortfall - How bad can things get when terrible things happen? Put another way, in 1% of the time, how much drawdown do we expect? We stands at -17%.
Financial Accounts Changes & Outlook
SIBOR rate retracts slightly to around 0.75%. Our Maxigain account will start accumulating 0.4% bonus interest in July and should start surpassing CIMB starsaver very soon. Going forward, we would look to transfer any long-term cash into this account.
In other news, SCB announced the removal of its minimum commission scheme. Our audit team also discovered that CIMB Cash Upfront custodian account charges $3 for dividend processing. Given this, we are no longer interested in performing any transactions using these accounts.
We eagerly anticipate the following events in the 2nd half of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the divestment of ST engineering and CMP, our cash holdings are getting too high for our liking. While we would love to get more equities, the strong rally is not favoring it.
We look forward to growing our revenue and re-balancing our portfolio in the upcoming quarter.
Performance Highlights
Despite the surprising Brexit event, the markets were unfazed and our portfolio made gains of 5.7% in Q2, compared to the STI which was up a mere 0.7% (a large potion was thanks to CMP divestment). With this recovery, our overall portfolio is now almost in the green.
In 2nd quarter, we paid out a record dividend of over $1300 - highest amount ever since inception. Who says financial freedom is a dream?
Operating Highlights
Income for the quarter were up slightly (about 5% more), largely due to an increase in passive income and dividends.
Expenses skyrocketed in May due to a critical mismanagement event. The board unreservedly apologize to the shareholders for this loss. Other major contributors includes Mayday Concert ($290) and multiple unexpected costs such as SSD Replacement ($250), IEM Cable Replacement ($70) & 2 Dental Visits ($100 after subsidies).
Overall, expenses for the quarter were up 65% compared to last year. Moving forward, we foresee the possibility of a phone replacement, and to a lesser extent some computer components, as potential major expenses in the 2nd half of the year.
Takeover of China Merchant Pacific (CMP)
We divested CMP at the takeover price of $1.02, over 20% premium over the trading range of 80c and 85c. This was entirely pure luck.
Regardless, the company made over $1500 from this unexpected takeover. While we are pleased, do keep in mind that this is an one-time income. At the same time, the company lost a dividend cash-cow and we will look to redirect the monies into other companies.
Financial Statistics (SGXCafe)
We setup account at SGXCafe to further analyze our portfolio. Base on our current holdings, here are some statistics:
Beta - Surprisingly, our portfolio is less volatile than the STI, standing at 0.71.
Value at Risk - We are 99% confident that we will not lose more than 9% of our portfolio.
Expected Shortfall - How bad can things get when terrible things happen? Put another way, in 1% of the time, how much drawdown do we expect? We stands at -17%.
Financial Accounts Changes & Outlook
SIBOR rate retracts slightly to around 0.75%. Our Maxigain account will start accumulating 0.4% bonus interest in July and should start surpassing CIMB starsaver very soon. Going forward, we would look to transfer any long-term cash into this account.
In other news, SCB announced the removal of its minimum commission scheme. Our audit team also discovered that CIMB Cash Upfront custodian account charges $3 for dividend processing. Given this, we are no longer interested in performing any transactions using these accounts.
We eagerly anticipate the following events in the 2nd half of 2016:
1. Smartly, a robo-financial advisor who is gearing for launch.
2. 8 Securities, a potential alternative for much lower brokerage fees.
3. Singapore first ETF REIT
Outlook
With the divestment of ST engineering and CMP, our cash holdings are getting too high for our liking. While we would love to get more equities, the strong rally is not favoring it.
We look forward to growing our revenue and re-balancing our portfolio in the upcoming quarter.
Thursday, June 02, 2016
Board Games Meetup & Bunch Of Life Updates
This is gonna be a "rojak" life update post about anything and everything I can think of in my life right now.
Things happening/happened, news I come across, what I am doing now, etc...
---
1) Board Games Meetup
My weekends have become much more occupied after participating in the board game meetups. This became especially frequent in May, and has became something I look forward to every week. I've played so many new board games!
In no particularly order off the top of my head: Code Names, Dixit, Cloud 9, Spyfall, Three Kingdoms Redux, Lords of Waterdeep, Bang!, Deception: Murder in Hong Kong, Betrayal at House on the Hill, Secret Hitler, Istanbul, Mascarade, Hands Up, No Thanks, Gang Up, King of Tokyo/New York, Pandemic, Splendor, The Places of Carrara, Isle of Skye, Broom Service, Village, Tiny Epic Kingdoms, Evolution, Imperial, Coup, Condottiere, The Resistance, Sheriff of Nottingham, Telestrations, Monster Fox, Flash Point, Nigeria Falls, I'm The Boss, Citadels, Panic Station, Fake Artist, Avalon, Eat Me If You Can!, Ugly Dolls...
Whew... that was a mouthful. And this is counting only those I can remember.
Perhaps one of these days I'll do a short write-up on them. So far, my favourite kind of games the deception and more light-hearted 'brainless' party games. I don't mind some simple economic games, but no more heavy resource management worker placement please (exception being Three Kingdoms).
Asides from the games, there are also many entertaining and friendly people you get to meet - a cosplaying game master who comes equipped with 'background music' and various props really adds to the atmosphere. There are master-negotiators and entertainers, hardcore enthusiasts who enjoy 5+ hours games and casual ones who prefers party games, from 5 to 50 years old.
There's also a very cute dog that one of the player brings along sometimes!
---
2) Missing Person
I have been deliberately skipping meetings with a certain group these days, and I guess some of them are wondering why. Or perhaps they do not care.
Anyway, 3 reasons. I want to avoid certain people, I want to "cold turkey" myself, and I want to completely eliminate any reasons (verbal, emotional, etc) I can give myself to "back out". I have made up my mind and this will not change.
---
3) Tough Decision
I had to make one tough decision in May when I had to reject an "old acquaintance".
Trust me, it was not easy saying 'no' to something you were initially so enthusiastic about, especially when there exists so many "push factors". I took 2 weeks to consider, consulting many friends, family and eventually following my heart & brain.
It was just not worth it - it felt like too big of a risk.
I would be lowering almost every aspect of what I enjoy right now (time, energy, money, flexibility, certainty), in exchange for the POSSIBILITY of greater satisfaction, and MAYBE better benefits down the line. It just doesn't feel right to me.
Regardless, it is all over now, and it's back to the drawing board.
Afternote: There were some good news after I made the decision, which makes me want to believe it is the correct one. The answer would not be revealed until later next month.
---
4) Debt In Modern Society
Came across an article where Singaporeans are lining up at car showrooms after loans policy were relaxed from 5 to 7 years.
My thoughts: If you are "able to afford" a car just because you can now pay it over 2 extra years, then you CAN'T afford the car in the first place. WHY are people getting themselves into debt for 'wants'?!
I can never understand why people want to take loans and credits for liabilities. The only loan I agree with taking would be a mortgage, but even then only at a level that is reasonable.
My policy is to pay it upfront in its entirety. If you have to pay by installments, you shouldn't buy it. If you have to loan money for it, you can't afford it. Period.
Taking on debts have become so common that everyone is expect to. If you don't have the money, don't buy it.
---
5) Health & Fitness
I'm getting older and I think my muscles & bones are getting more fragile.
I went for a short FIVE minutes run on one weekday night, and 2 days later my kneecap was swollen and hurts like hell when I walk. Went to see the doctor who told me I injured knee ligament, likely due to lack of warmup and after long periods of inactivity.
Haiz... Lesson Learnt: Always do your warmups.
---
6) Entertainment Series
More like a self reminder posts of the variety shows and dramas I must keep up with, LOL.
1) 天才冲冲冲 + 封神无双 (Every weekend)
2) Korean Drama Genius
3) Aside from regular ones (Trump's Hearthstone, REACT channel), I've become addicted to these series recently: Jessie Cox's Strange Life, TB's Secret Hitler, Table Top
---
7) Mayday Concert!
Secured a VIP seat to their concert thanks to "jiejie"! This is the first concert I am attending in 3 years (the previous one being theirs too)! And I can't freaking wait!!!
---
8) 'Milestones' Battle
An eye opening and experience gaining battle. This was one of my earlier battles but unfortunately I really flunk on some of the SQL.
---
9) Books
List of various books that I somehow come across, either through blog posts or articles that I might want to read in the future.
Start: Punch Fear in the Face, Escape Average and Do Work that Matters
Portfolios of the Poor
Things happening/happened, news I come across, what I am doing now, etc...
---
1) Board Games Meetup
My weekends have become much more occupied after participating in the board game meetups. This became especially frequent in May, and has became something I look forward to every week. I've played so many new board games!
In no particularly order off the top of my head: Code Names, Dixit, Cloud 9, Spyfall, Three Kingdoms Redux, Lords of Waterdeep, Bang!, Deception: Murder in Hong Kong, Betrayal at House on the Hill, Secret Hitler, Istanbul, Mascarade, Hands Up, No Thanks, Gang Up, King of Tokyo/New York, Pandemic, Splendor, The Places of Carrara, Isle of Skye, Broom Service, Village, Tiny Epic Kingdoms, Evolution, Imperial, Coup, Condottiere, The Resistance, Sheriff of Nottingham, Telestrations, Monster Fox, Flash Point, Nigeria Falls, I'm The Boss, Citadels, Panic Station, Fake Artist, Avalon, Eat Me If You Can!, Ugly Dolls...
Whew... that was a mouthful. And this is counting only those I can remember.
Perhaps one of these days I'll do a short write-up on them. So far, my favourite kind of games the deception and more light-hearted 'brainless' party games. I don't mind some simple economic games, but no more heavy resource management worker placement please (exception being Three Kingdoms).
Asides from the games, there are also many entertaining and friendly people you get to meet - a cosplaying game master who comes equipped with 'background music' and various props really adds to the atmosphere. There are master-negotiators and entertainers, hardcore enthusiasts who enjoy 5+ hours games and casual ones who prefers party games, from 5 to 50 years old.
There's also a very cute dog that one of the player brings along sometimes!
---
2) Missing Person
I have been deliberately skipping meetings with a certain group these days, and I guess some of them are wondering why. Or perhaps they do not care.
Anyway, 3 reasons. I want to avoid certain people, I want to "cold turkey" myself, and I want to completely eliminate any reasons (verbal, emotional, etc) I can give myself to "back out". I have made up my mind and this will not change.
---
3) Tough Decision
I had to make one tough decision in May when I had to reject an "old acquaintance".
Trust me, it was not easy saying 'no' to something you were initially so enthusiastic about, especially when there exists so many "push factors". I took 2 weeks to consider, consulting many friends, family and eventually following my heart & brain.
It was just not worth it - it felt like too big of a risk.
I would be lowering almost every aspect of what I enjoy right now (time, energy, money, flexibility, certainty), in exchange for the POSSIBILITY of greater satisfaction, and MAYBE better benefits down the line. It just doesn't feel right to me.
Regardless, it is all over now, and it's back to the drawing board.
Afternote: There were some good news after I made the decision, which makes me want to believe it is the correct one. The answer would not be revealed until later next month.
---
4) Debt In Modern Society
Came across an article where Singaporeans are lining up at car showrooms after loans policy were relaxed from 5 to 7 years.
My thoughts: If you are "able to afford" a car just because you can now pay it over 2 extra years, then you CAN'T afford the car in the first place. WHY are people getting themselves into debt for 'wants'?!
I can never understand why people want to take loans and credits for liabilities. The only loan I agree with taking would be a mortgage, but even then only at a level that is reasonable.
My policy is to pay it upfront in its entirety. If you have to pay by installments, you shouldn't buy it. If you have to loan money for it, you can't afford it. Period.
Taking on debts have become so common that everyone is expect to. If you don't have the money, don't buy it.
---
5) Health & Fitness
I'm getting older and I think my muscles & bones are getting more fragile.
I went for a short FIVE minutes run on one weekday night, and 2 days later my kneecap was swollen and hurts like hell when I walk. Went to see the doctor who told me I injured knee ligament, likely due to lack of warmup and after long periods of inactivity.
Haiz... Lesson Learnt: Always do your warmups.
---
6) Entertainment Series
More like a self reminder posts of the variety shows and dramas I must keep up with, LOL.
1) 天才冲冲冲 + 封神无双 (Every weekend)
2) Korean Drama Genius
3) Aside from regular ones (Trump's Hearthstone, REACT channel), I've become addicted to these series recently: Jessie Cox's Strange Life, TB's Secret Hitler, Table Top
---
7) Mayday Concert!
Secured a VIP seat to their concert thanks to "jiejie"! This is the first concert I am attending in 3 years (the previous one being theirs too)! And I can't freaking wait!!!
---
8) 'Milestones' Battle
An eye opening and experience gaining battle. This was one of my earlier battles but unfortunately I really flunk on some of the SQL.
---
9) Books
List of various books that I somehow come across, either through blog posts or articles that I might want to read in the future.
Start: Punch Fear in the Face, Escape Average and Do Work that Matters
Portfolios of the Poor
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q1
| Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016Q1) | DPU in previous vs current: $0.114 -> $0.116 EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.02963 -> $0.03039 Price in previous vs current: $1.87 -> $2.00 Yield in previous vs current: 6.2% -> 5.8% BV in previous vs current: $1.91-> $1.91 Revenue was stagnant, but a cut in expenses manage to inch up net income and DPU slightly. Woodlands Regional Hub in 2020, Northpoint City in the next 18 months and Downtown Line 3 will bring massive crowd and growth to their top 3 malls. AEI began in March at Northpoint, temporarily affecting occupancy. |
| Super Group (FY2016Q1) | EPS in previous vs current: $0.0617 ->$0.0424 EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.122 -> 0.104 DPU in previous vs current: $0.031 -> $0.023 Price in previous vs current: $0.73 -> $0.90 Yield in previous vs current: 3.2% -> 2.5% BV in previous vs current: $0.468 -> $0.462 Revenue are stable while profits after tax fell another 15%, mostly due to forex and higher tax. Sales in SEA is ok but china seems to be weakening. The reasons for holding remains the same as before - strong operating cash flow and balance sheet with good margins. Assuming 4 cents earnings, the P/E is 22.5 which is quite high - not a good time to add. No turnaround in sight so this will be in the freezer for a while. |
China Merchant Pacific Holdings (FY2016Q1) | EPS (HKD) in previous vs current: $0.6731 -> $0.4376 EPS (SGD) in previous vs current: $0.12 -> $0.08 EPS (HKD) in previous Q1 vs current: $0.1197 -> $0.0907 DPU in previous vs current: $0.07 -> $0.07 Price in previous vs current: $0.78 -> $0.85 Yield in previous vs current: 9% -> 8.2% BV (HKD) in previous vs current: $0.532 -> $0.544 Revenue increases 28% while profits is up 15%. However, EPS dropped over 25% for the quarter; That's around 1.57 cents SGD. If we annualized Q1 profits, it is just 6.28 SGD cents. If it doesn't improve significantly, I doubt they can sustain the 7cents dividends payout. Afternote: Takeover at $1.02. Will let it go. |
| Sembcorp Industries (FY2016Q1) | EPS in previous vs current: $0.443 -> $0.292 EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.079 -> 0.0542 DPU in previous vs current: $0.11 -> $0.11 Price in previous vs current: $2.5 -> $2.7 Yield in previous vs current: 4.4% -> 4.0% BV in previous vs current: $3.6 -> $3.6 (~$3.3 excl. pref shares) Continue its downturn with net profits plunging 25%, ROE dropping further to 6.7%. Interest cover has fallen from 9.7 to a dangerous 3.6 times! Stable performance for Utilities segment with profit going up 1% and now making up 72% of net profits. Singapore under pressure but overseas contributions are making up for it; India power plant and other energy investments expect to drive growth. Marine is "gone case" with profits dropping another 48%. Managment confident provisions has taken into account of Sete Brazil bankruptcy. |
| M1 (FY2016Q1) | EPS in 2014 vs 2015: $0.191 -> $0.191 EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.049 -> $0.045 DPU in previous vs current: $0.189 -> $0.153 Price in previous vs current: $2.3 -> $2.48 Yield in previous vs current: 6.6% -> 6.2% Bad results as PBT fell from 46M to 43M. Quarter EPS fell from 4.9 to 4.5 cents. Comforting news is the increase of fibre/mobile customers by ~20K total, with market share remaining stable. While they are investing in many new initiatives like Smart City and Cloud offerings, it will take a few years for these to kick off. Management guidance seems to imply comparable profit for Y2016. |
| Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q1) | DPU in 2014 vs 2015: $0.085 -> $0.086 DPU in previous Q1 vs current: $0.0212 -> $0.0219 Price in previous vs current: $1.3 -> $1.4 Yield in previous vs current: 6.6% -> 6.1% BV in previous vs current: $1.73 -> $1.72 Good and stable results, with 3.3% increase in DPU. Management has planned well against office supply headwinds, with ample 'reserves'. CCT joined the ranks of STI in this quarter. |
| Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016) | DPU in previous vs current: $0.0571 (9M, 100%) -> $0.0663 (12M, 100%) Price in previous vs current: $0.56 -> $0.65 Yield in previous vs current: ~10% -> ~10% BV in previous vs current: $0.89 -> $0.89 Results are back on track thanks to a warmer winter. Assuming they can sustain 6 cents DPU per year, this is providing me a 10% yield. Still, their performance is highly subjected to unpredictable things like the weather, which makes sense for me to limit my exposure. My yield cow for the long term. |
| ST Engineering (FY2016Q1) | EPS in previous vs current: $0.1705 -> $0.1705 EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.0417 -> $0.0353 DPU in previous vs current: $0.15 -> $0.15 Price in previous vs current: $2.84 -> $3.20 Yield in previous vs current: 5.3% -> 4.7% Disappointing 1st quarter with earnings plunging 15%! This is mainly due to Marine and Aerospace to a smaller extent. Management forsee a stronger 2nd half and maintain comparable profits guidance. |
| Straits Times Index (FY2016) | Not Applicable |
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Shiny Things
The "Shiny Things" thread on HWZ Money Mind is a goldmine of valuable investment information. I have benefited tremendously and I highly encourage any investor, new or experienced, to slowly digest the wealth of goodies within that thread.
While I have always known the benefits of low cost ETFs, the discussions further strengthened my perception on them, and more importantly on asset allocation and re-balancing.
The best thing is you get concrete details on the exact ETF to purchase (to cut taxes to minimum), and numerous real-life examples on portfolio allocation.
Below are some copy and paste bits of information that I feel will be useful for my future reference.
Note: I am definitely going to support Shiny Things's book for his contributions and efforts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The new Shiny Things Seal of Approval list:
* Singaporean stocks: ES3
* Singaporean bonds: A35
* Global stocks: IWDA on the London Stock Exchange (was VWRD, can also add in EMIM)
* Global(ish) bonds: QL2 (*Changed to CORP if you have >$100K)
* Broker for >$100k USD: Interactive Brokers
* Broker for <$100k USD: Standard Chartered
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------'
IWDA is optimized replication ETF and doesn't have EM. VWRD is fully replicated ETF and covers EM. These two fully justify 0.05 expense difference IMO
VWRD does indeed include about 1000 extra holdings and can probably expect a smaller tracking error though optimisation might lower the costs for the fund. About 400 of the extra holdings are EM stocks.
As for IWDA, the ETF holds 1621 different companies, while the MSCI World index which is tracked by IWDA constitutes of 1636 companies (as of december 31st 2014). It is not full replication, so if you are worried about those 15 companies having a major impact on your portfolio, do not bother with this ETF. I think the difference is too small to make a big deal out of it. It is physical replication (as mentioned in the fact sheet) instead of synthetic replication, which means they do hold the actual assets and not for instance derivatives as with synthetic replication. It is optimised in terms of not holding all the assets their benchmark holds, but as said earlier this paragraph, it comes close :wink: .
The FTSE index that VWRL/VWRD tracks is indeed more geographically diversified. If this is very important to you, you could add an emerging markets ETF or just buy the VWRL/VWRD ETF, it is your pick. I would go for IWDA+EMIM because I prefer that they are accumulating and having a really slight advantage in TER.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nah. If you care about emerging markets, then just go for VWRD; if you don't, then use IWDA. Using a whole bunch of little funds to fill in any gaps in IWDA is just going to cause you to run up transaction and rebalancing costs. Just pick one or the other.
Because they're issued by shitty issuers. Hyflux didn't even bother to get a credit rating on their bonds, they just stuffed the market full of these bonds on the assumption that "oh people have heard of us, we'll spin them a nice story, they won't care that we're heavily indebted and having trouble paying everything".
Bank bonds are good, especially Singaporean bank bonds, because those are rock-solid names. Bank pref shares are good if you're really gagging for income, though they should only be a small part of your portfolio. But high-yield long-dated junk-bond trash doesn't deserve a place in your portfolio, except through a well-diversified high-yield bond ETF - and even then it should be 3-5% of your portfolio, absolute max.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STOCKS (70%)
1. 45% ES3
on SGX / SGD (SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF) / TER 0.30% / Semi-Annual Distribution
2. 20% IWDA
on LSE / USD (iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF) / TER 0.20% / No Distribution ie Reinvest dividends
3. 5% EIMI
on LSE / USD (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF) / TER 0.25% / No Distribution ie Reinvest dividends
BONDS (30%)
1. 20% A35
on SGX / SGD (ABF SINGAPORE BOND INDEX FUND) / TER 0.25% / Annual Distribution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hang on, hang on. The reason you glide down to bonds as you get older is so that you don't get clobbered by an equity downturn just before you retire. You make a tradeoff - giving up returns to reduce your risk. When you're younger, you can afford to take more risk and invest more of your money in stocks, because you can sit there and ride out a market cycle. But when you're older, you can't afford to get blindsided by a stock-market collapse, so you move into bonds, which have less volatility and smaller drawdowns.
You should have made most of your returns already by the time you're close to retiring; moving into bonds locks in those gains, as well.
On the one hand, you're saying "wow switching to bonds is a terrible idea", but then down below you're saying "what if you'd retired in 2009?". If you'd retired in 2009 with an all-equity portfolio, you'd have been completely ****ed, because your retirement portfolio had just taken a 50+% hit. But if you'd retired in 2009 with a 50-50 stocks-bonds portfolio, you'd have been pretty much fine. You might've taken a 20% drawdown, tops.
That right there is why you move into bonds when you get older. People who left their portfolios 100% in equities because "stocks have better returns, stocks will never go down!" were the ones who had to postpone their retirement because half their retirement portfolio got wiped out.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you keep waiting, you'll end up never buying. When it's going down, you'll think "oh no it's going down I don't want to buy it when it's going down!", and when it's going up you'll think "oh man it's going up, I'll wait for it to pull back a bit" and then you'll end up buying at the ding-dong high.
Don't be that guy.
Just put it in now and leave it for 20 years. The STI is relatively cheap at the moment (its price-to-earnings ratio is on the low side), so now's a good time to buy in if you're in for the long term.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On agents:
It's good to remember that there's a conflict of interest there. The more expensive products they sell to you, the more money they make. If they have a product that gives you 3% returns and gives them 10% commission, vs a product that gives you 10% returns and 3% commission, be sure that they will sell you the first one and pocket their 10% commission.
They can still say, why not use your CPF? Extra 0.5% returns!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Algorithm Trading
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have the minimum required to open an interactive brokers account and am planning to do 1000SGD of DCA in IWDA each month. Is the cost savings of spread premium + TT charges (each month) + account inactivity fee enough to warrant one to open an interactive brokers account since it seems that the TT charges (each month) seems to eat up the cost savings?
Yep, it's worth it. No wire charges, and FX at mid-market - the difference between Stanchart and IBKR for international stocks comes from the inactivity fee at IBKR, and SGD 1k a month is the line between "it's cheaper to pay Stanchart's FX rates" and "it's cheaper to pay IBKR's activity fee". And besides, you'll be at the $100k line in IBKR before long, which is where they stop charging the inactivity fee.
The new rule - if you've got more than $10k USD, and you do more than $500 USD a month, you should use IBKR. Above that amount, you'd be paying more in FX spread at Stanchart than you'd pay in maintenance fees at IB.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To any kind of "would XXX stock rise", "will fed rise rates" kind of question:
I would be rich if I know.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You do have FX exposure, but not quite where you think: you have FX exposure to the currency of the assets inside the ETF, not the currency of the ETF itself.
Let's imagine a hypothetical Zimbabwean ETF, listed in America. So the ETF is denominated in USD; it owns a bunch of Zimbabwean stocks valued in ZWD; and your home currency is SGD.
Let's say you buy $10,000 SGD worth of that ETF.
If the SGD halves in value, but everything else stays constant: your $10k SGD worth of the ETF is now worth $20k.
If the ZWD halves in value, but everything else stays constant: your $10k SGD worth of the ETF is only worth $5k (because the value of the assets in the ETF has halved).
If the USD halves in value: nothing happens! The value of the assets in the ETF has doubled in USD terms; but the value of the shares has halved in SGD terms.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OK, here's the deal. Currency diversification in ETFs really doesn't matter - trust me on this, I can show you the math if you want - but if you try to buy a bunch of different currencies' ETFs while you're at Stanchart, you will get absolutely incinerated on FX costs. Stanchart's FX spreads for anything other than USD and SGD-denominated stocks are way too wide; this is my one and only complaint about them, but it's a big one.
You can move money directly in and out of IB. The really nifty thing if you're an expat is that you can move money in and out in multiple countries - so I can transfer money in to IBKR from my Singapore or Aussie bank accounts, convert it to USD (at interbank rates!), and then wire it out to my US bank account.
If you're doing a big lump of cash it can be a monster saving - imagine you've just sold a house in London for a million quid, and you need to convert the cash to USD. If you do it at the bank they'll probably take 30 pips out of you, that's $3,000 USD; but if you do it at Interactive you'll pay one or two pips, so you save nearly three grand.
At Stanchart, the spread on GBPSGD is about 2% wide - so you have to pay about 1% (half a spread) in foreign-exchange spread each time you want to buy or sell a GBP-denominated stock using SGD.
IBKR doesn't have a direct GBPSGD pair - you have to do "sell SGD for USD" and then "sell USD for GBP". But even though you have to do two trades instead of one, the spread only ends up being 0.02% - one-one-hundredth of what you'd pay at Stanchart.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the Permanent Portfolio:
I'm gonna set my stake in the ground right here: I think the Permanent Portfolio has some good ideas (diversify and rebalance), but I think the asset mix it chooses is sort of ridiculous, and it's not a good long-term investment plan because of that asset mix.
For anyone who hasn't run across it: the PP advocates 25% in long bonds, 25% in cash, 25% in gold, and 25% in stocks. Their argument is that it covers every possible economic and inflationary scenario: if the economy strengthens, bonds and stocks do well; if the economy weakens, cash and gold do well. If inflation, stocks and gold do well; if deflation happens, cash and bonds do well.
There are two huge problems with this, though.
The big one is that they're basically positioning for the apocalypse. Stocks do the best out of all asset classes over the very long term, so you want your portfolio mostly in stocks. These guys are one-quarter in stocks; I reckon if you looked at this portfolio since 1980 it would have been incinerated by a boring 60-40 stocks-bonds portfolio. Those allocations to cash and gold are absolutely huge, so when stocks and bonds outperform cash and gold (which is what happens the most often) you're going to have a huge drag on your portfolio from all the cash and gold you're sitting on.
Secondly, their 25-25-25-25 allocation doesn't reflect how the real world works. They've got 50% of their portfolio in stuff that works well during deflation, but (outside of Japan) deflation just doesn't happen that often. Same for economic shrinkage - they've got 50% of their portfolio in stuff that works when the economy's shrinking, but economies just don't shrink that often. If you wanted to weight this portfolio toward the actual probabilities of this stuff happening, you'd have maybe 5% of your portfolio in deflation hedges, and 10% in economic-shrinkage hedges... and that still leaves 85% to put in stocks and bonds, like a normal person.
The permanent portfolio is pretty much one step above allocating your portfolio to guns and canned goods.
While I have always known the benefits of low cost ETFs, the discussions further strengthened my perception on them, and more importantly on asset allocation and re-balancing.
The best thing is you get concrete details on the exact ETF to purchase (to cut taxes to minimum), and numerous real-life examples on portfolio allocation.
Below are some copy and paste bits of information that I feel will be useful for my future reference.
Note: I am definitely going to support Shiny Things's book for his contributions and efforts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The new Shiny Things Seal of Approval list:
* Singaporean stocks: ES3
* Singaporean bonds: A35
* Global stocks: IWDA on the London Stock Exchange (was VWRD, can also add in EMIM)
* Global(ish) bonds: QL2 (*Changed to CORP if you have >$100K)
* Broker for >$100k USD: Interactive Brokers
* Broker for <$100k USD: Standard Chartered
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------'
IWDA is optimized replication ETF and doesn't have EM. VWRD is fully replicated ETF and covers EM. These two fully justify 0.05 expense difference IMO
VWRD does indeed include about 1000 extra holdings and can probably expect a smaller tracking error though optimisation might lower the costs for the fund. About 400 of the extra holdings are EM stocks.
As for IWDA, the ETF holds 1621 different companies, while the MSCI World index which is tracked by IWDA constitutes of 1636 companies (as of december 31st 2014). It is not full replication, so if you are worried about those 15 companies having a major impact on your portfolio, do not bother with this ETF. I think the difference is too small to make a big deal out of it. It is physical replication (as mentioned in the fact sheet) instead of synthetic replication, which means they do hold the actual assets and not for instance derivatives as with synthetic replication. It is optimised in terms of not holding all the assets their benchmark holds, but as said earlier this paragraph, it comes close :wink: .
The FTSE index that VWRL/VWRD tracks is indeed more geographically diversified. If this is very important to you, you could add an emerging markets ETF or just buy the VWRL/VWRD ETF, it is your pick. I would go for IWDA+EMIM because I prefer that they are accumulating and having a really slight advantage in TER.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nah. If you care about emerging markets, then just go for VWRD; if you don't, then use IWDA. Using a whole bunch of little funds to fill in any gaps in IWDA is just going to cause you to run up transaction and rebalancing costs. Just pick one or the other.
Because they're issued by shitty issuers. Hyflux didn't even bother to get a credit rating on their bonds, they just stuffed the market full of these bonds on the assumption that "oh people have heard of us, we'll spin them a nice story, they won't care that we're heavily indebted and having trouble paying everything".
Bank bonds are good, especially Singaporean bank bonds, because those are rock-solid names. Bank pref shares are good if you're really gagging for income, though they should only be a small part of your portfolio. But high-yield long-dated junk-bond trash doesn't deserve a place in your portfolio, except through a well-diversified high-yield bond ETF - and even then it should be 3-5% of your portfolio, absolute max.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STOCKS (70%)
1. 45% ES3
on SGX / SGD (SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF) / TER 0.30% / Semi-Annual Distribution
2. 20% IWDA
on LSE / USD (iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF) / TER 0.20% / No Distribution ie Reinvest dividends
3. 5% EIMI
on LSE / USD (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF) / TER 0.25% / No Distribution ie Reinvest dividends
BONDS (30%)
1. 20% A35
on SGX / SGD (ABF SINGAPORE BOND INDEX FUND) / TER 0.25% / Annual Distribution
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hang on, hang on. The reason you glide down to bonds as you get older is so that you don't get clobbered by an equity downturn just before you retire. You make a tradeoff - giving up returns to reduce your risk. When you're younger, you can afford to take more risk and invest more of your money in stocks, because you can sit there and ride out a market cycle. But when you're older, you can't afford to get blindsided by a stock-market collapse, so you move into bonds, which have less volatility and smaller drawdowns.
You should have made most of your returns already by the time you're close to retiring; moving into bonds locks in those gains, as well.
On the one hand, you're saying "wow switching to bonds is a terrible idea", but then down below you're saying "what if you'd retired in 2009?". If you'd retired in 2009 with an all-equity portfolio, you'd have been completely ****ed, because your retirement portfolio had just taken a 50+% hit. But if you'd retired in 2009 with a 50-50 stocks-bonds portfolio, you'd have been pretty much fine. You might've taken a 20% drawdown, tops.
That right there is why you move into bonds when you get older. People who left their portfolios 100% in equities because "stocks have better returns, stocks will never go down!" were the ones who had to postpone their retirement because half their retirement portfolio got wiped out.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If you keep waiting, you'll end up never buying. When it's going down, you'll think "oh no it's going down I don't want to buy it when it's going down!", and when it's going up you'll think "oh man it's going up, I'll wait for it to pull back a bit" and then you'll end up buying at the ding-dong high.
Don't be that guy.
Just put it in now and leave it for 20 years. The STI is relatively cheap at the moment (its price-to-earnings ratio is on the low side), so now's a good time to buy in if you're in for the long term.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On agents:
It's good to remember that there's a conflict of interest there. The more expensive products they sell to you, the more money they make. If they have a product that gives you 3% returns and gives them 10% commission, vs a product that gives you 10% returns and 3% commission, be sure that they will sell you the first one and pocket their 10% commission.
They can still say, why not use your CPF? Extra 0.5% returns!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On Algorithm Trading
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have the minimum required to open an interactive brokers account and am planning to do 1000SGD of DCA in IWDA each month. Is the cost savings of spread premium + TT charges (each month) + account inactivity fee enough to warrant one to open an interactive brokers account since it seems that the TT charges (each month) seems to eat up the cost savings?
Yep, it's worth it. No wire charges, and FX at mid-market - the difference between Stanchart and IBKR for international stocks comes from the inactivity fee at IBKR, and SGD 1k a month is the line between "it's cheaper to pay Stanchart's FX rates" and "it's cheaper to pay IBKR's activity fee". And besides, you'll be at the $100k line in IBKR before long, which is where they stop charging the inactivity fee.
The new rule - if you've got more than $10k USD, and you do more than $500 USD a month, you should use IBKR. Above that amount, you'd be paying more in FX spread at Stanchart than you'd pay in maintenance fees at IB.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To any kind of "would XXX stock rise", "will fed rise rates" kind of question:
I would be rich if I know.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You do have FX exposure, but not quite where you think: you have FX exposure to the currency of the assets inside the ETF, not the currency of the ETF itself.
Let's imagine a hypothetical Zimbabwean ETF, listed in America. So the ETF is denominated in USD; it owns a bunch of Zimbabwean stocks valued in ZWD; and your home currency is SGD.
Let's say you buy $10,000 SGD worth of that ETF.
If the SGD halves in value, but everything else stays constant: your $10k SGD worth of the ETF is now worth $20k.
If the ZWD halves in value, but everything else stays constant: your $10k SGD worth of the ETF is only worth $5k (because the value of the assets in the ETF has halved).
If the USD halves in value: nothing happens! The value of the assets in the ETF has doubled in USD terms; but the value of the shares has halved in SGD terms.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OK, here's the deal. Currency diversification in ETFs really doesn't matter - trust me on this, I can show you the math if you want - but if you try to buy a bunch of different currencies' ETFs while you're at Stanchart, you will get absolutely incinerated on FX costs. Stanchart's FX spreads for anything other than USD and SGD-denominated stocks are way too wide; this is my one and only complaint about them, but it's a big one.
You can move money directly in and out of IB. The really nifty thing if you're an expat is that you can move money in and out in multiple countries - so I can transfer money in to IBKR from my Singapore or Aussie bank accounts, convert it to USD (at interbank rates!), and then wire it out to my US bank account.
If you're doing a big lump of cash it can be a monster saving - imagine you've just sold a house in London for a million quid, and you need to convert the cash to USD. If you do it at the bank they'll probably take 30 pips out of you, that's $3,000 USD; but if you do it at Interactive you'll pay one or two pips, so you save nearly three grand.
At Stanchart, the spread on GBPSGD is about 2% wide - so you have to pay about 1% (half a spread) in foreign-exchange spread each time you want to buy or sell a GBP-denominated stock using SGD.
IBKR doesn't have a direct GBPSGD pair - you have to do "sell SGD for USD" and then "sell USD for GBP". But even though you have to do two trades instead of one, the spread only ends up being 0.02% - one-one-hundredth of what you'd pay at Stanchart.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the Permanent Portfolio:
I'm gonna set my stake in the ground right here: I think the Permanent Portfolio has some good ideas (diversify and rebalance), but I think the asset mix it chooses is sort of ridiculous, and it's not a good long-term investment plan because of that asset mix.
For anyone who hasn't run across it: the PP advocates 25% in long bonds, 25% in cash, 25% in gold, and 25% in stocks. Their argument is that it covers every possible economic and inflationary scenario: if the economy strengthens, bonds and stocks do well; if the economy weakens, cash and gold do well. If inflation, stocks and gold do well; if deflation happens, cash and bonds do well.
There are two huge problems with this, though.
The big one is that they're basically positioning for the apocalypse. Stocks do the best out of all asset classes over the very long term, so you want your portfolio mostly in stocks. These guys are one-quarter in stocks; I reckon if you looked at this portfolio since 1980 it would have been incinerated by a boring 60-40 stocks-bonds portfolio. Those allocations to cash and gold are absolutely huge, so when stocks and bonds outperform cash and gold (which is what happens the most often) you're going to have a huge drag on your portfolio from all the cash and gold you're sitting on.
Secondly, their 25-25-25-25 allocation doesn't reflect how the real world works. They've got 50% of their portfolio in stuff that works well during deflation, but (outside of Japan) deflation just doesn't happen that often. Same for economic shrinkage - they've got 50% of their portfolio in stuff that works when the economy's shrinking, but economies just don't shrink that often. If you wanted to weight this portfolio toward the actual probabilities of this stuff happening, you'd have maybe 5% of your portfolio in deflation hedges, and 10% in economic-shrinkage hedges... and that still leaves 85% to put in stocks and bonds, like a normal person.
The permanent portfolio is pretty much one step above allocating your portfolio to guns and canned goods.
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