Sunday, September 24, 2017

Success In Sight

This was a song that I overlooked when Mayday new album came out. Pretty much skipped it, largely because the melody wasn't too appealing the first few times I heard it.

That was until it won the Best Lyrics Award (caught my attention), and then subsequently the 2nd version of the MV came out.



Now, it has grown on me so much that it's becoming one of my favourite songs on the new album.

The lyrics are so freaking well written.

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Viewed narrowly, the lyrics are obviously talking about the hardship Mayday have gone through to pursue their music dreams.

Viewed from a wider perspective, it can be a reflection of many goals we pursue in life. Our commoner life may be nowhere as exciting or dramatic as theirs, but some of the lines in this song really shook and touched me on a personal level.

才体会每场仗 都仰赖 枪与粮
梦是把热血和 汗与泪 熬成汤
浇灌在干涸的 贫瘠的 现实上
当日常的重量 让我们 不反抗

Every battle relies on guns and food. Can passion alone feed your stomach? Can love exist without bread?
Pursuing your dreams wholeheartedly is like watering the dry and barren soil of reality with blood, sweat and tears. It may not yield any results.
Can you persevere in the face of  harsh reality?

And should the day come when you arrive at your goal, would you be as happy as you thought? Or are you just stepping into another jail? Another rat race?

一双又一双的目光 像监狱和高墙
墙里的风光是不是 如当初想像

You will be judge by others. By society norms. By peer pressure. And ironically, the older we get, the more we are afraid of being judged.

Can we find back our younger self? The one who is "stupid" but strong?

Are we really wiser as we grow older? Or have we lost something in the process of growing up?

从不多想, 只是信仰
少年回头望 笑我“还不快跟上?”

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Rights Issue Advance Strategy Guide

All Credits of this post to BullyTheBear.

I have no intention of using the advanced strategies covered, but post here solely for my reference.

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Now that the basic is covered, let's talk about strategies. There are strategies for existing shareholders who already holding shares before the rights exercise is announced, and there are also strategies for people who want to take advantage of the rights to get into the company at a favourable time. These are the wannabe shareholders. I must say rights issue favour the latter rather than the former. That's just the way it is.

I further define two types of player: the casual and the advanced one. Casual ones are usually newbies, but need not be, and quickly wants to get over the rights issue as soon as they can. Advanced players want to hack the rights and get a more favourable price, meaning getting their average price below the theoretical ex rights price (TERP).

w: no of mothers shares before XR
x: no of rights shares successfully subscribed
y: price of mother shares before XR
z: subscription price of rights shares
TERP = [(w*y)+(x*z)] / (w + x)

As you can see, to get a lower average price, you need to get much more excess rights beyond the rights ratio. If the rights ratio is 166 shares for every 1000 shares held before XR, to get a lower price than TERP, you need to get more rights shares than 166.

Link for casual rights player: here
Link for advanced rights player: here

For existing casual shareholders:
a. Just wait for offer information statement (OIS) to come in. It'll inform you of the number of entitled rights shares you have.
b. Go atm and subscribe to the entitled rights
c. At the same time, apply for the excess rights. There's also a $2 admin fee charged by every bank.

For existing advanced shareholders:
1. Sell all your mother shares before XR, buy back after XR and after the price drops lower than TERP
2. Buy more mother shares before XR and take adv of the drop in price, be entitled to more rights, apply for excess
3. Buy nil paid rights during nil paid rights trading period, esp when there are opportunities for arbitrage, subscribe to entitled and also apply for excess
* 2 and 3 can be combined, but make sure you know what you're doing

For casual wannabe shareholders:
a. Buy the mother shares before XR
b. Wait for OIS to inform you how much entitled rights you have. If you bought too close but still before XR, the OIS might not reach you on time. So calculate manually.
c. Go atm and subscribe to the entitled rights
d. At the same time, apply for the excess rights

For advanced wannabe shareholders:
1. Buy in after XR, at or below TERP, and skip all the rights exercise
2. Buy in before XR, get your entitled rights, apply for excess by maximizing rounding

Since preference is given for excess rights applicants to round off odd lots, and assuming that the rounding of odd lots is for 100 shares per board lot, it make sense to change the number of shares you want to buy before XR to maximise the odd lots rounding. For example, if you get 1000 shares before XR, you are entitled to get 166 excess. To round off to the next nearest round lots, you are almost guaranteed to get 34 excess rights (to round to 200 shares). Can we maximise that rounding so that you can get the best out of it?

In the past, where the board lot is 1000 shares, there's some savings to be had, but not anymore.
Just ignore this method safely, knowing that you are not going to hack a lot to get a lower average price using this method.

3. Buy nil paid rights during nil paid rights trading period, subscribe to entitled
* 2 and 3 can be combined, but make sure you know what you're doing

Rights Issue Step By Step Guide

I am experiencing my first Rights Issue with Capital Commercial Trust soon, and have scouted around the financial blogsophere for information on how to do this properly.

This post is not meant to address the specifics of CCT rights issue, but more a general guide on how rights work and how to apply for it.

Credits mainly to BullyTheBear, with bits and pieces of information from other sources.

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1. Rights Issue Announcement

With rights issue announcement, the most important is the "X rights per Y shares at Z price" information. Upon the subscription of rights, the nil paid rights (named because you have not subscribed to it; you are just holding the rights) will convert to ordinary shares / paid rights.

4 Choices when right issue happen:
1. Sell your shares before the "ex-rights" date. (Before this date, all shares will include the value of the rights)
2. Subscribe. Otherwise, you risk facing dilution.
3. Sell Your Nil-Paid Rights (or buy more) during rights trading period. (Usually complicated and not worth the effort. Pay commission + short trading period)
4. Do nothing. (Worst option. Wasting money.)

If you want to subscribe, you have until the "Close of Rights Issue" date to press at the ATM.

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2. Rights Trading

With "renounceable" rights, you can sell them off. For "non-renounceable" (also known as preferential offering), you can't. What price to pay for the rights?

This is for if you really want to do trading for the rights,

Nil paid rights price + Subscription price = Price of mother shares after XR

"The subscription price for this cct rights exercise is 1.363. Let's say upon XR, the price of cct mother share is at 1.450. The nil paid rights price should be trading at 0.087 (1.45 - 1.363). If the price of the nil paid rights is way below 0.087, then the logical question to ask if this: is the mother share overvalued or the nil paid rights undervalued? It presents an arbitrage opportunity here. But this is advanced technique to play with rights, and it's highly advisable for newbies not to do it unless you know what you're getting into."

*These rights would actually appear on your CDP account.

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3. Entitled Rights

You can find this by calculating from how many shares you have.

If you don't want to calculate manually, or want to confirm, wait for the Offer information statement (OIS) to be sent to you. In it, there'll be a circular on the whys of the rights exercise, and the how to the different scenario where a shareholder can subscribe to the rights. Most important, there will be a form where they will tell you explicitly how much rights you are entitled to. You can either fill the form, send a cheque and post it to them for rights subscription, or just ignore the form and go to the atm to subscribe for the rights.

Take note of the "Last date and time for acceptance" in the document. You MUST subscribe or they will expire worthless by this date.

You will get fractional allotments of rights, but rounded down. For example, if the right issue is 50 for every 1000 shares, you will still be allocated 25 rights if you have 500 shares.

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4. Excess Rights

You can also subscribe to excess rights above and beyond your entitled rights.

For example, if you are entitled to 830 rights, you will definitely be able to get 830 new shares, because well, that's your entitlement. But for the excess rights, preference will be given to round off odd lots and the rest is luck.

So, if you apply for 70 excess, you will likely get it (to round off to the 100/share lot size).

How much to apply the maximize?

Suggestion is to just put 1.0 your holdings before XR. It's unlikely you will get excess rights beyond the number of shares you hold originally, especially for a good company rights issue.

Let's say you have 5000 shares and are entitled to 830 shares. You can just apply 5000 - 830 = 4170 excess rights. In total you are applying for 5000 rights (830 entitled and 4170 excess) and you would have to pay for it. The rest will be refunded to your account.

Link to step by step guide on using ocbc atm to subscribe for rights: here

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5. Check Allocated Rights

Date is listed as expected date of crediting rights units, usually 1 day before commencement of trading for rights share. You can check the CDP account around night time to ensure that the rights shares are credited. If that's slow, try checking the refund in the bank account where you applied for the rights. From the amount of money refunded to you, you can back calculate to see how much excess rights you got. The slowest confirmation is after a few days, you will get a snail mail of the rights shares you get through your physical mail box.

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6. Pro Forma Figures
The Pro Forma Figures is a set of important figures that are usually presented in the circulars about the rights issue. The pro forma figures are estimated values of important financial figures such as yield, gearing, NAV, revenue, net profit, etc, assuming the rights issue has been carried out at an earlier date, usually 1 year or 6 months ago.

The past financial figures will be adjusted accordingly to factor in the effect of the rights issue. It will factor in the reduction in interest payment for debts if the funds raised has been used to pay up loans. If the rights issue comes together with proposed acquisitions of new properties, then the increase in distributable income from these new properties will be factored in. Most importantly, the increase in total outstanding shares will be factored in when calculating the figures such as yield and NAV.

The pro forma figures is an important set of figures to look at if you want to estimate the diluting effect of the rights issue. The yield may decrease in the short term due to the increase in the share base, but the pro forma figures will give an idea of yield in the middle to long term after factoring in payment of debts and income from new acquisitions. However, do take note that these are estimated figures, and the actual figures may turn out better or worse.