Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The Meaning Of Mayday Songs

Compared to other artistes, Mayday songs encompasses a HUGE variety of themes. And many of them really connect deeply with me (and I believe people of my age)

Asides from the typical "boys & girls love" ballads, some themes they often touch on are:

1. Friendship/Kinship
2. Conformity to Society Norms
3. Motivational/Inspirational
4. Life & Death
5. Society Phenomenons

Many people only enjoy the songs melody/tune, but if you dig deeper into the lyrics behind their songs, you'll uncover many gems. As it would take n-pages of text to go into details, I'm just gonna share a few examples and quotes:

1. Friendship/Kinship

洗衣机
Comparing mother's love to the washing machine. I especially like the build up until the end when they finally reveal who the washing machine is.

任意门
Every line in this song is their life story. From their background to how they met, fought, started out and achieve the status they have today. This song is specifically talking about their friendship.
"你问我全世界是哪里最美?答案是「你身边」"

干杯
Will there come a day where time will turn back?
The answer is obvious, but the memories we've held will live on forever.

"终究会 有一天 我们都变成昨天
是你 陪我走过 一生一回 匆匆的人间"


2. Conformity to Society Norms


三个傻瓜
The first idiot can't wait to go to school. Little did he know he would use up all his youth in school.
The second idiot was there is no hurry to fall in love. Love will come in the future. So he gave up love to pursue study.
The third idiot exchanged 19 years for 5 certificates, climbing the social ladder for fear of being left behind.

Idiots or not, time will come after all of us. In the blink of an eye, the 3 idiots have all become old.

"这故事 熟悉吗? 走过吗? 无奈吗? 心痛吗?"


人生有限公司
We "clock-in" into the company in the delivery room.
In the first department, your parents are your superiors - Just be obedient.
In the second department, you're manufactured into a product which excel at study and exams.
Third department, learn to manage your finance.
Fourth department, find your other half.

This is our system. Our production line. Our society. There are no holidays in the Life Pte Ltd. There are no answers these questions in life.

"你曾停下过吗 你曾怀疑过吗?
就算你有想法 你也没有办法
人生无限问题 没有解答

追逐富贵荣华 目标飞黄腾达
其实平安到达 就是一种伟大
"


3. Motivation/Inspirational

第二人生
We look forward to wonderful things in life, but most of us aren't putting in effort. Instead, we continue to live the same routine life, day after day, year after year.

We wait for our superheroes to appear.
We wait for miracles.
We wait for god to answer our prayers.

"英雄没有出现 奇迹没有发生"
"等到荒废青春 用尽体温 才开始悔恨"


倔强
There are so many inspirational lines in this song - just listening to it fills you with "stubborn" and determined energy.

"我如果对自己妥协如果对自己说谎, 即使你不原谅我也不能原谅"
"我就是我自己的神在我活的地方"
"你说被火烧过才能出现凤凰"
"逆风的方向更适合飞翔"


勇敢
Even their Hokkien songs are extremely well written. This one give me the energy to go on when times are tough.

When the time come where it seems like all hope is lost, when you're crying and no one knows, when you're drowning in sorrow...

Remember that all these will pass. Darkness will pass and sweet fruits will bear from bitterness. And have that courage to work towards that future.


4. Life & Death

如烟
Personally, I think this is one of the most beautiful lyrics I've seen in any song.

Is there a world where it never goes dark?
Is there a rose which never wither?
Is there a poem which never ends?
Is there a "forever" which never changes?

When we arrive at the end of our life, what regrets will we have? Can I have the chance to re-live my life all over again?

In this song, we experience the regret and agony of having limited life span. Many things we regret. Don't you wish to freeze time, or return to that moment and do something different?


夜访吸血鬼
Interestingly, this song describes the exact opposite of above - the pain and sorrow of immortality. If you ignore the very "wild and rock" tune and focus on the lyrics alone, you'll notice the vampire lead a really sad and miserable life.

Think about it - They witness their love ones die one by one, their dreams (of living normal lives) shatter.

They lost their youth and yet had to be reminded of it constantly. They're lonely. They're forsaken by gods. They have no motivation to carry on living, and yet they can't end their miserable lives, even if they tried suicide by consuming the holy water.

"看爱过的人 一一告别, 做过的梦 一一凋谢, 只留下我独自残喘的千年"


转眼
Writing the final chapter of my biography.

Success is like sandcastle, life is like the sea waves. Money, big houses... everything is but an illusion.

"成就如沙堡 生命如海浪
浪花会掏尽 所有的幻象
存款与楼房 挣扎与渴望 散场"

My children and grandchildren are all busy, let them be.

When I return to the light, will there be someone waiting on the other side?


5. Society Phenomenoms

黑暗骑士
World has become more orderly over the years, but income equality widens and masses still live in poverty. We have reached peak of civilization, yet people have retreated back into their caves and become more distance. The lines between good and evil are getting blur.

This song lists all the evil and terrible things happening in our society:"

"越来越毒的雨水 越来越多的灾变
律师和小丑勾结 民代和财团签约
越来越大的企业 越来越小的公园"


入阵曲
You really need to do some research to uncover the deep meaning behind this song (or just watch the original MV to catch a glimpse of it)

"當一座城牆 只為了阻擋 所有自由渴望"

A wall that blocks freedom. Clue: This is not describing a physical wall.

"當一份真相 隻手能隱藏 直到人們遺忘"

When the truth can be hidden away until people forget. Countless cases of these.

"幼無糧 民無房 誰在分贓"

Where corruption run rampant.

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Even their "typical love ballads" often have unique settings. Just to quote a few:

仓颉 - Even the creator of Chinese characters would be unable to come up with description appropriate to describe my love, to make you return to my side.

超人 - Superman can save the world, but couldn't do anything about our dying love.
"为什么拯救地球是那么容易, 为什么束手无策啊我和你的爱情"

I hope this post will interest readers in exploring more behind the meaning of their songs!

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

My Acquisition Watchlist

FLT ($0.935) = Added by B at 0.935 and Keith at multiple points (huge positions, lowest at 0.905). Provide 0.65c DPU (very conservative estimates. Maiden results exceeded forecast) for ~7% yield. Long yield, strong management and low gearing at 28%. Good for 'pure exposure' to Australia and diverisfy away from SG. I will consider adding at $0.9

Parkway Life REIT ($2.39) = Very defensive and stable with extremely strong financial ratios throughout. However, this comes at huge premium to NAV (1.5 times). Using a conservative 0.115 DPU, yield is only 4.8%, kinda low for a REIT. Will consider adding closer to $2.3 (5% yield)

Capitaland Mall Trust ($1.9) = Largest retail malls backed by Temasek. Latest quarter DPU dropped 6% (largely due to 1-time expenses), leading to annualized DPU of ~11c. Biggest AEI now is rebuilding of Funan (target complete 2019Q4), and lesser extent refurbishing of Raffles City. My biggest concern for retail is the impending arrival of Amazon and other online shopping mediums - hopefully the management has strategies to mitigate these risks. Assuming a DPU of 11c, yield is almost 5.8%. I believe it would be a good deal if I can catch it at about $1.84, below the NAV of $1.86 with a 6% yield.

Mapletree Commercial Trust ($1.42) - Vivocity (40%) and the recently acquired MBC I (~20%) are both extremely good assets, providing a good diversified income. NAV is $1.32, which does mean a slight premium at current price. I am fond of this REIT, but assuming even at the forecasted yield of 8.13c (post MBC acquisition), yield now is merely 5.7% - a bit too low for my taste. Downside could be limited due to preferential offering at $1.42 recently.

Starhill Global ($0.735) = This is a more 'concentrated' choice than Capitaland Mall with higher yield, as it derives near 70% of it revenue from 2 malls - Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City (no doubt 2 very strong ones in the heart of Orchard). Gearing is at 35.1%. NAV 0.91. For this, I would like to use a more conservative 5c dividend going forward with no growth, translating to 6.8% yield. More than 7% yield (at $0.71) would be extremely tempting.

Starhub ($2.8) - How the great has fallen. Taking a very bad outlook of things (falling pay TV and 4th Telco) and assuming they cut dividends to 4c x 5 = 16c going forward, I would want at least 6% yield. This means closer to $2.6. This is on the basis that their fundamentals (mainly looking at their hubbing statistics) do not deteriorate further.

SPH REIT ($0.96) - Strong balance sheet with 26% gearing. Only 2 malls (Pentagon and Clementi Mall) This is my choice in between CMT and Starhill. Has ROFR on Seletar Mall as further growth. Full year DPU is 5.5c, translating to 5.7% yield, a bit too low for my taste. Would look into it should it fall closer to 80cents.

Others
DBS - Below $14
OCBC - Below $8.5

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q3

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016)

DPU: 11.764c
NAV: $1.93

4th quarter DPU was 1.5% lower, mainly due to AEI at Northpoint. Full year DPU is 1.3% higher, marking its 10 year consecutive DPU growth. Financial sheet remains very healthy with ample debt headroom. Yield now around 5.8%.

I remain very confident of FCT - Strong management records, potential accretive acquisitions from Waterway Point, new anchor tenants at CCP. They've also just acquired the retail podium of Yishun 10.

The recent news of Amazon hitting Singapore early next year could put pressure on all retail REITs (and is dragging down its share price). I will look to accumulate should it should fall to $1.8 (around 6.5% yield)

Super Group (FY2016Q3)

Awaiting takeover at $1.3


Sembcorp Industries (FY2016Q3)


9M results: Utilities begin to show results, with net profit up 11% excluding 1 time items. More overseas (india and China) plants expected to commence in 4Q. Marine profits plunged 82%. Disastrous, but still profit-making I guess.

Overall, 9M Net profit plunged 49% to 12.2 cents. Assuming an annualized EPS

I was expecting an annualized EPS of 19 cents, but it looks like it could hit as low as 16 cents now. At 16 cents EPS and 10 cents DPS at $2.5, it's P/E is 15.6 and yield is 4%. NAV is $3.58.

Free cash flow was a huge positive due to capex cuts. I am most worried about its debt (interest cover at merely 3.4)

M1 (FY2016Q3)

Revenue fell 10% and 3Q net profit falls 23.4% - a surprisingly bad result. And the 4th Telco isn't even online yet!

Market share and everything else remained stable. The introduction of add-on data (to deter the 4th Telco) have reduced their data revenue significantly IMO. Debt keeps climbing higher, with Debt/Equity now at 1.1 from 0.9 last year.

Management guided ~12% decline in profit from 'single digit decline' previously. 9 Months EPS is 12.6. Assuming 15cs full year EPS and 80% payout ratio of 12c DPS at $2.1, P/E is 13 and yield is 5.8%.


Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q3)

Continue to hold up well with ever so slightly growing DPU.

AEI includes Raffles City refurbishing and redevelopment of Gold Shoe Car Park.

I am expecitng at least 8.5c (in the worst case) to 9.0c DPU for a long time. At $1.5, this is yielding 6%.
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q2)

DPU came in about 5% lower compared to last year, attributed to higher than usual occurence of typhoons in Aug and Sep. Visitors and utilization all went lower as a result. Half year DPS is 2.45c (down from 2.58c).

Overall, nothing to be concern about if we believe that the DPU will remain "stable over the long term".

Assuming a conservative 4.8c annual dividend, yield is around 7.4% (I am not hopeful of 9.6% present in the slides)


ST Engineering (FY2016Q3)

Results is not that bad despite the headlines fell in net profits due to 1 off $61M provision. Management guided comparable revenue and lower PBT compared to last year.

Expect 15c dividends to be very safe based on strong order books, track records and cashpile.

Will look to add this should it hit $3. (5% yield)
Straits Times Index (FY2016)

Not Applicable

Friday, November 11, 2016

3 Weeks Break!

My top priorities for this vacation, asides from relaxing, recharging, and energizing myself, are:

1. House & Comp Spring Cleaning
2. Portfolio Review - To come up with a systematic and streamlined process to handle my portfolio and other finances going forward.
3. Exercise - At least to get back a bit into shape for upcoming IPPT.

To ensure I do not "waste" this once in a blue moon holiday, I'm going to track the general things I'm doing each day. This is to make sure I meet the goals I'm planning.

My House/Comp Spring Cleaning is going to be my largest and most comprehensive to date. Many of the items dumped will be documented in the Minimalist Lifestyle post.

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6/11 - Hearthstone Worlds Championship + Board Games Meetup
7/11 - Portfolio Review, Comp Spring Cleaning, Civ 6
8/11 - Civ 6, Swimming, Planet Earth II
9/11 - Drive Parents Around, Tailor Office Wear
10/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning, Factory Reset S6 For Sale
11/11 - Trip to JB
12/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning, House Spring Cleaning [Cleared my bedroom entire upper cabinet]
13/11 - Board Games Meetup
14/11 - House Spring Cleaning [Dump even more stuff - SAS/University/BAML] + Board Game Meetup
15/11 - New Job Admin Stuff + Planet Earth II + House Spring Cleaning [Prepare to dump lot of gaming-related stuffs]
16/11 - Haircut + Collect Clothes + Death Note + Spam 最强大脑
17/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Board Game Meetup
18/11 - Spam 最强大脑 + Portfolio Review
19/11 - International Games Day
20/11 - Board Games Meetup
21/11 - Portfolio Review
22/11 - Family Outing
23/11 - Comp Spring Cleaning
24/11 - Swimming + Shopping


Friday, November 04, 2016

Final Memories

I may not be around anymore, but these will stay on with me for a long time. Thank you for the memories: 1. Rubbish lah! 2. Jin Bad! (Jin bad lah you!) 3. I think can! / Also can! 4. Jialuk 5. Don't waste my time! 6. You call yourself engineer 7. Give free I take 8. Add to Cart (ATC) 9. Easy la this one! 10. My part considered done. 11. Tomorrow/Tuesday/Friday my last day. 12. You are the pillar... without you the stock will crash. 13. One Click! (One Click $200K) 14. Power lah you. 15. Trueeeeeeeeeee. 16. Bo bian mah bo bian. 17. I cannot accept this. 18. Sugar blast. 19. Why you always plot me. 20. I cannot accept this. 21. 太过谦虚就会变得虚伪 / 少给我你的虚伪 22. Aiya 你不会明白的啦 23. Suan liao suan liao. 24. 小事小事,不用担心 25. I'll catch up. 26. You cheat my feeling. 27. Just upload. 28. You evillllllllll. 29. PT / Apink / Your Best Friend / Lucy / Nancy / Rubbish Man / Aquaman ... ... Jian Die (Spy) / Chewable / Champagne / Gong Kway / Poko / Princess... 30. All the Mummies, Taikors, Jiejies and Korkors