Saturday, November 18, 2017

Road To FIRE - Society Norms

There are many articles regarding the arduous and greatly misunderstood path of financial freedom. Often, it is not only about the struggles of saving and financial prudence, but a lot more comes from society pressure, norms and expectations.

Take a reader article from AK: Scolded by wife for thinking about financial freedom 

I can really feel the reader's struggles from his letter - it's something that is just not widely accepted in a society like Singapore.

It's similar to "expectations" to get married (despite it being a VERY BAD DECISION if you do it for the sake of doing so), expectations to "get a job", expectations to "climb the ladder". If you have no ambitions to chase these things, you're considered a "good for nothing" or "lazy bum".

I shall walk my own path - 不在乎世俗的眼光

“Creating a life that reflects your values and satisfies your soul is a rare achievement. In a culture that relentlessly promotes avarice and excess as the good life, a person happy doing his own work is usually considered an eccentric, if not a subversive. Ambition is only understood if it’s to rise to the top of some imaginary ladder of success. Someone who takes an undemanding job because it affords him the time to pursue other interests and activities is considered a flake. A person who abandons a career in order to stay home and raise children is considered not to be living up to his potential — as if a job title and salary are the sole measure of human worth.

You’ll be told in a hundred ways, some subtle and some not, to keep climbing, and never be satisfied with where you are, who you are, and what you’re doing. There are a million ways to sell yourself out, and I guarantee you’ll hear about them.

To invent your own life’s meaning is not easy, but it’s still allowed, and I think you’ll be happier for the trouble.”

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On the positive side of thing, an interesting comment from the article by BigCatBlue:

"As an investor, I need people to believe in working and spending. Do it as much as possible. In put it crudely, greed is good. 

Imagine if the companies that I have invested in found out that most people, if not all people are financially secured. They don't need to slave over a mortgage, put good food on the table, upgrade their car and condo, and enjoy all the trappings life can offer. Employees will revolt! Who then will work for me while I collect dividend and enjoy a slower pace in life? 

Masses of people thinking of financial independence -- that I am afraid. Please labour on for our sake."

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Quarterly Results Review - 2017Q3

M1
Results continue to dip, but IMO it is actually not bad. There are signs of it bottoming (for now), with net profit declining 5% year on year. For 9 months it is down 13.5% (9M EPS from 12.6c to 10.9c), which seems to be in line with the stock price ($2 to $1.8). Service revenue increase 5% and mobile ARPU remain stable at $55. Mobile customers base fall due to shutdown of 2G network, and overall their market share is still stable at 25%.

They launched lots of initiatives this past quarter like malware detection solutions, nationwide IOT, smart sensors etc which would all take time to materialize. Yield at $1.8 is 6.1%, based on trailing results. The million dollar question is if they can sustain the current DPU.

Afternote: More news of first "intelligent" waste management system, cloud offering of digital startups. I might consider averaging down if I sell other position.


CapitaCommercial Trust
DPU still went up 2.6% despite selling away 3 buildings. This is the definition of a well managed REIT. Subscribed for their rights. Main catalyst now is Golden Shoe redevelopment and how they can bring Asia Square Tower 2 forward.

Afternote: For some unknown reason, CCT had a crazy run-up after the rights issue to over $1.8. The pro-forma NAV is $1.76 and 1H2017 DPU is 4.23 cents (annualized 8.46 cents). Considering a 9c DPU yearly, the yield is barely ~5%. This makes me really tempted to just sell it.

I believe it would be more fairly valued at $1.65 for a 5.5% yield.


CapitaMall Trust
A very flat quarter with regards to DPU, shopper traffic and tenants sales. Expect stable 11c DPU (5.4% yield at $2.04) until the launch of Funan in 2019.


Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Full-year DPU rose 1.2 per cent to 11.90 cents, the highest since the FCT's listing in 2006. Integration with Northpoint City North Wing is in its final stages.

My crown holding - low debt level (29%), 11 years of increasing DPU, NAV grown from 1.78 to 2.02 since I first vested in 2014, best management, super resilient. Every single quarter the results is good. What more can you ask for?

Stock price has reached an all time high (>$2.20) that sometimes, I am tempted to sell it in hope of getting it back at a lower price.


Far East Hospitality Trust
DPU falls 8% to 1.03c but the stock keeps going up - probably in anticipation of recovery next year (revenue for hotel rooms went up). There is also the acquisition of Oasis Downdown mid next year which is expected to be slightly accretive.


Sembcorp Industries
Saw a 37.7% drop in net profit due to several one off items - non-cash impairment charges and 11m of doubtful debts write offs. Marine show small profits again after losses last year.

Overall I think the company is stabilizing (Operation Profit up 11% for 9 months) and management indicate strategic review will be completed soon. NAV is up from $3.58 to $3.86.



Singtel
Only 3c special dividends (from about 14c gain) from Netlink IPO, on top of standard 0.68c (60% payout) dividends. Excluding Netlink, earnings fell 4% mainly due to intense competition in India.

Still feel confident that it should trade between $3.6 to $4.

Afternote: Fair results, down trending price? Singtel is the number 1 stock in Singapore by market cap, and deserve to at least trade at a "fair value". I strongly believe $3.6 can hold and increased my position again seeing the continued drop. Look forward to my 9.8c dividends in January next year.


Frasers Centrepoint Limited
Dividends maintained at 8.6c per year (60% payout ratio) and delivered yet another solid quarter with revenue/profit increasing 17%. NAV is now at $2.46.

Like that they are diversifying their income to now over 50% outside Singapore, and concentrating on growing their recurring income. This is the best "ETF" I ever brought.


Accordia Golf Trust
Ah! The big surprise this quarter. DPU plunged over 30% due to "unusually large return of members' deposit" despite profits and revenue going up. Hopefully this is a one time event.

To add further uncertainty, golf utilization fell ~15% as they were closed for 10 days due to typhoon in October. It does not sound good for their next quarter in view of the harsh winter ahead.

Given that I am comfortably in the money, I will hold and see.


Netlink Trust
Nothing much to say - everything according to forecast results and on track to meet target DPU.


Watchlist
Comfort Delgro - $1.9 and below would be extremely tempting.

SGX - Closer to $7.

Raffles Medical Group - Closer to $1.

Starhill Global Reit - 6.5% yield at $0.75.

Mapletree Comm Trust - Below $1.5, camping at 6% yield. NAV is $1.37.

ST Engineering - Would likely bite at 5% yield (closer to $3)

Capitaland - Look closer to $3.3 or below.

Mapletree Greater China Trust - $1.1 or when it retract to more than 7% yield.



Sunday, November 05, 2017

My Financial Feed

Over the past year, I'm getting bombarded by more and more newsletters, articles, emails and services. There are so many overlapping stuff and it's a real pain in the neck dealing with all the good and bad sources.

Hence, I'm taking this chance to consolidate these sources and pick out the cream of the crop.


Portfolio Tracking
To track our portfolio performance, monitor price changes. The ease of use, accessibility ,and user interface is of almost importance.

1. Yahoo Finance - A much inferior choice, after they brought down Google Finance.
2. SGXCafe - Favourite for monitoring day to day changes (email) and comprehensive reports.

Eliminated: Google Finance (was the best, until they decide to terminate it), MoneyMSN, Stockflock


Generic Stock News
We all need constant source of ideas to feed our minds.

1. Feedly - My personal consolidated source of around 100 blogs. I go here for inspiration and ideas.
2. Motley Fool - Promote long term investing but articles tends to get repetitive.


Analyst Reports & Price Targets
Professional analyst reports. Take them with a pinch of salt, but good reference for information.

1. SG Share Investor - Detailed analyst report
2. i3Investor - Consolidated price targets of analysts


Stock Information
1. Dividends.sg - Best consolidated dividend hsitory


Forums & Social
1. SSI and MoneyMind
2. InvestingNote


Mobile Apps
1. Spiking - Tracks 'big names' buys and sells
2. SGXMobile - Notification of company announcements
3. SG Stock Alert - Notification of company announcements


Procedures Before Buying
1. Search Info at Dividends.sg (dividends history, recent announcements)
2. Analyze company (latest results)
3. Read analyst reports and any other news


Procedures After Buying
1. Update ZZ Portfolio Tracker
2. Update Yahoo Finance
3. Update SGXCafe
4. Add Notifications to SGXMobile, Vezted