Thursday, May 26, 2016

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q1

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016Q1)

DPU in previous vs current: $0.114 -> $0.116
EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.02963 -> $0.03039
Price in previous vs current: $1.87 -> $2.00
Yield in previous vs current: 6.2% -> 5.8%
BV in previous vs current: $1.91-> $1.91

Revenue was stagnant, but a cut in expenses manage to inch up net income and DPU slightly. Woodlands Regional Hub in 2020, Northpoint City in the next 18 months and Downtown Line 3 will bring massive crowd and growth to their top 3 malls.

AEI began in March at Northpoint, temporarily affecting occupancy.

Super Group (FY2016Q1)

EPS in previous vs current: $0.0617 ->$0.0424
EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.122 -> 0.104
DPU in previous vs current: $0.031 -> $0.023
Price in previous vs current: $0.73 -> $0.90
Yield in previous vs current: 3.2% -> 2.5%
BV in previous vs current: $0.468 -> $0.462

Revenue are stable while profits after tax fell another 15%, mostly due to forex and higher tax. Sales in SEA is ok but china seems to be weakening.

The reasons for holding remains the same as before - strong operating cash flow and balance sheet with good margins. Assuming 4 cents earnings, the P/E is 22.5 which is quite high - not a good time to add.

No turnaround in sight so this will be in the freezer for a while.

China Merchant Pacific Holdings (FY2016Q1)

EPS (HKD) in previous vs current: $0.6731 -> $0.4376
EPS (SGD) in previous vs current: $0.12 -> $0.08
EPS (HKD) in previous Q1 vs current: $0.1197 -> $0.0907
DPU in previous vs current: $0.07 -> $0.07
Price in previous vs current: $0.78 -> $0.85
Yield in previous vs current: 9% -> 8.2%
BV (HKD) in previous vs current: $0.532 -> $0.544

Revenue increases 28% while profits is up 15%. However, EPS dropped over 25% for the quarter; That's around 1.57 cents SGD. If we annualized Q1 profits, it is just 6.28 SGD cents. If it doesn't improve significantly, I doubt they can sustain the 7cents dividends payout.

Afternote: Takeover at $1.02. Will let it go.

Sembcorp Industries (FY2016Q1)

EPS in previous vs current: $0.443 -> $0.292
EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.079 -> 0.0542
DPU in previous vs current: $0.11 -> $0.11
Price in previous vs current: $2.5 -> $2.7
Yield in previous vs current: 4.4% -> 4.0%
BV in previous vs current: $3.6 -> $3.6 (~$3.3 excl. pref shares)

Continue its downturn with net profits plunging 25%, ROE dropping further to 6.7%. Interest cover has fallen from 9.7 to a dangerous 3.6 times!

Stable performance for Utilities segment with profit going up 1% and now making up 72% of net profits. Singapore under pressure but overseas contributions are making up for it; India power plant and other energy investments expect to drive growth.

Marine is "gone case" with profits dropping another 48%. Managment confident provisions has taken into account of Sete Brazil bankruptcy.

M1 (FY2016Q1)

EPS in 2014 vs 2015:  $0.191 -> $0.191
EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.049 -> $0.045
DPU in previous vs current: $0.189 -> $0.153
Price in previous vs current: $2.3 -> $2.48
Yield in previous vs current: 6.6% -> 6.2%

Bad results as PBT fell from 46M to 43M. Quarter EPS fell from 4.9 to 4.5 cents. Comforting news is the increase of fibre/mobile customers by ~20K total, with market share remaining stable.

While they are investing in many new initiatives like Smart City and Cloud offerings, it will take a few years for these to kick off. Management guidance seems to imply comparable profit for Y2016.

Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q1)

DPU in 2014 vs 2015: $0.085 -> $0.086
DPU in previous Q1 vs current: $0.0212 -> $0.0219
Price in previous vs current: $1.3 -> $1.4
Yield in previous vs current: 6.6% -> 6.1%
BV in previous vs current: $1.73 -> $1.72

Good and stable results, with 3.3% increase in DPU. Management has planned well against office supply headwinds, with ample 'reserves'.

CCT joined the ranks of STI in this quarter.
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016)

DPU in previous vs current: $0.0571 (9M, 100%)  -> $0.0663 (12M, 100%)
Price in previous vs current: $0.56 -> $0.65
Yield in previous vs current: ~10% -> ~10%
BV in previous vs current: $0.89 -> $0.89

Results are back on track thanks to a warmer winter. Assuming they can sustain 6 cents DPU per year, this is providing me a 10% yield.

Still, their performance is highly subjected to unpredictable things like the weather, which makes sense for me to limit my exposure.

My yield cow for the long term.

ST Engineering (FY2016Q1)

EPS in previous vs current: $0.1705 -> $0.1705
EPS in previous Q1 vs current: $0.0417 -> $0.0353
DPU in previous vs current: $0.15 -> $0.15
Price in previous vs current: $2.84 -> $3.20
Yield in previous vs current: 5.3% -> 4.7%

Disappointing 1st quarter with earnings plunging 15%! This is mainly due to Marine and Aerospace to a smaller extent.

Management forsee a stronger 2nd half and maintain comparable profits guidance.

Straits Times Index (FY2016)

Not Applicable