It was a rough February as volatility returns to the US and I finally saw signs of the long-awaited bear. My portfolio suffer a massive drawdown of over $9000 in a mere 3 weeks (dropping as much as $2200 in a single day).
Other wealthier bloggers are experiencing as much as $30K drawdown or even 5 digits "loss" in a single day.
That said, I'm super hyped. I've been waiting forever for the return of this Great Singapore Sale.
M1
As I expect, the earnings seems to have bottom (for now), with 4Q PAT dropping by 2.5%, and full year PAT down -11.5%. Subscribers are stable (slight growth) while usual stuff like international roaming continue its downtrend. Full year dividend at 11.4c (80% payout ratio).
The stock price picked up a little but I still don't have the conviction to average down on this. There are no guidance on next year earnings (they say it's too early to tell).
As before, they are branching into other areas like malware detection solutions, nationwide IOT, smart sensors, "intelligent" waste management system, cloud offering of digital startups. Whether they will take off remains to be seen.
CapitaCommercial Trust
Good results (DPU up 8.66%, 6% higher) but the stock price have shot through the sky. I really should have grit my teeth and sell when it was at more than $2. It is really unstainable considering the yield at that price is below 5%.
I believe it would be more fairly valued at $1.65 for a 5.5% yield, or at best $1.8 for 5% yield. The market are pricing in lot of growth from their AEI and Asia Square acquisition.
CapitaMall Trust
As usual, stable dividend cash-cow. Expect stable 11c DPU (5.4% yield at $2.04) until the launch of Funan in 2019.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Share price exploded with the launch of Northpoint City. Usual comment:
My crown holding - low debt level (29%), 11 years of increasing DPU, NAV grown from 1.78 to 2.02 since I first vested in 2014, best management, super resilient. Every single quarter the results is good. What more can you ask for?
Singtel
The wide market downturn finally broke Singtel $3.6 support.
At $3.40, Singtel currently trades at 10x EV/EBITDA, below its five year historical mean of 12x. It is also supported by a attractive yield of 5.1% (or 17.5c, for such a strong blue chip). P/E is close to 10!
I would definitely add on more if I weren't already so heavily vested in it. I think I will fire one more bullet should it falls to $3.3, and reserve 1 final bullet for $3.
Given the "wide-ranging impact" of Singtel (Singtel shares, Temasek Holdings, favourite of retirees) and its curent payout ratio, I think the chance of dividend cut is remote. The CEO herself have also started buybacks at $3.3x.
Frasers Property
Frasers Centrepoint Limited renamed. Its share price has been on a downtrend since hitting $2.25.
Profit took a big 46% hit this quarter, but is expected due to the lumpy nature of property development. I like that recurring income has now grown to over 70%..
Current NAV is $2.46, and I expect dividends to be maintained at 8.6c a year. I am still comfortable with this "ETF", and might add on more should it come to $1.7 (30% discount to NAV, 5% yield).
Far East Hospitality Trust
DPU falls 13.4% to 0.97c. At this yield of 5.5%, I think market is pricing for the recovery to happen in 2019 (management guides continued competitive environment for next few quarters). Not sure how much the AEI and macro "tourism" events would have on the profitiability.
For now, I will just leave this as it is (not a big position) and might sell if the price keeps going up.
Accordia Golf Trust
DPU drops 19% and there seems to be no turn-around in sight. Kind of regret not selling when it hit over 78c, but no one expected the deposit returns losses and 2 consecutive bad quarters.
Now, it is back at my entry price, but I have still earned substantial dividends from this counter.
Management continue to iterate Japan's economy recovery, hopefully it prorpogates down to this counter. I will seriously consider selling it if the price rebounds or fundamentals continue to weaken.
Sembcorp Industries
Dividends continue to get cut (full year 5c, from 8c in 2016 and 11c in 2015). EPS down from 19.9c to 10.5c It is weird that Urban Development have taken over Marine as the 2nd biggest segment.
Looking forward to the IPO of Sembcorp Energy India.
Netlink Trust
Nothing much to say - everything according to forecast results and on track to meet target DPU.
Link to DBS Report
Watchlist
Comfort Delgro - $1.9 and below would be extremely tempting.
SGX - Closer to $7. India exchange saga impact unknown.
Raffles Medical Group - Closer to $1. High P/E but long term growth story.
ThaiBev - A lot hinges on their Vision 2020. Debt is crazy after the acquisition spree. Might be cheap at 80c, but I would wait for lower to be safe.
Starhill Global Reit - Results weakening slightly but recovery expected in 2nd half. Assuming annualized dividends of 4.68c, provides 6.5% yield at $0.72. I also think it has a good management due to this article.
Mapletree Comm Trust - Below $1.5, camping at 6% yield. NAV is $1.37.
Mapletree Logistic Trust - Despite >10% retracement still pretty expensive. If it comes closer to book value, say $1.1.
ST Engineering - Would likely bite at 5% yield (closer to $3)
Capitaland - Look closer to $3.3 or below.
Mapletree Greater China Trust - $1.1 or when it retract to more than 7% yield.
