Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Letter To Shareholders (15) - Performance Review 2019Q2

Economy Commentary
The market continue to fluctates on the wimp of Donald Trump and his tarriff wars. Fed's 180 degree turn to a dovish outlook was a huge surprise that led to an incredible REIT rally.

As an example, I thought CMT was quite fully valued at $2.20+. It's now at $2.60+. Almost all REITs had an  insane run making me so tempted to sell my long-time REITs.


Performance Review Highlights / Acquisitions & Developments
We managed to fire a few bullets during the May downturn; strengthening our STI position, subscribing to Frasers Centrepoint rights and finally averaging down on Sembcorp. In the long term, we still believe in the value of Sembcorp's utilities business. As long as the Marine segment can "pull through", there is more upside to come for the energy market.

Singtel and Kimly remains our largest holdings. Kimly unexpectedly announced a doubling of dividends payout despite their business growth is still weak. Personally, I feel it is a move to support the share price by attract yield investors. Hopefully, we can see some light in the 2nd half of 2019 when they start rolling out more innovations.

We distributed $1200 dividends this quarter, lower from $1900 in the same period last year largely due to absence of M1 and Capitamall Trust. 



Operating Highlights - Income
Despite lower dividends, our quarterly income remains roughly the same due to an enlarged base salary.

We would perhaps have to make a huge decision on whether to switch our operational income. It's a tough decision, much tougher than the previous time. In terms of monetary benefits, it comes down to the long-term vs the short-term.


Operating Highlights - Expenses
Regular expenses were about 10% lower than last year and in-line with long term average. Essentially, this fluctuates at around $2000.

1-time expenses were also much lower than average, with basically only Taiwan vacation (spend less than $700SGD for the entire trip, tickets and accomodation inclusive). 

This made 2019Q2 our lowest expense quarter in 2 years.  


Operating Updates
N/A. 


Outlook
We continue to maintain our total saving rate at around 80%, and saving rate of salary after passive income at 90%.

The huge recovery proves once again how unpredictable the stock market is. Just 2 months ago, it was all gloom and doom due to the trade war. Now, the DOW is once again breaking all-time high.

We will continue to maintain our strategy of investing for the long term, that time in the market beats timing the market.