Friday, August 19, 2016

Hang In There

Hang in there...

I know.

I know it's been long. Far too long.

Just a little more, OK?

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q2

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FY2016Q2)

DPU in previous vs current: $0.116 - > $0.120
Price in previous vs current: $2.00 -> $2.17
Yield in previous vs current: 5.8% -> 5.5%
BV in previous vs current: $1.91-> $1.90

Revenue dipped as expected due to Northpoint AEI. Income was stable due to retained distributions from previous quarter, and higher management fee in units. Debt remains healthy.

Super Group (FY2016Q2)

EPS in previous vs current: $0.0424
EPS in previous Q2 vs current: $0.094 -> 0.088
DPU in previous vs current: $0.010 -> $0.010
Price in previous vs current: $0.90 -> $0.78

Tolerable results with profits dropping "just" 7%.

The reasons for holding remains the same as before - strong operating cash flow (and FCF) and balance sheet with good margins. I am estimating 4 cents earning for the year.

No turnaround in sight so this will be in the freezer for a while.


Sembcorp Industries (FY20161H)

EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.20 -> $0.97
DPU in previous 1H vs current: $0.05 -> $0.04
Price in previous vs current: $2.7 -> $2.8
Yield in previous vs current: 4.0% -> 2.8%
BV in previous vs current: $3.6 -> $3.6 (~$3.3 excl. pref shares)

Surprising hit on Utilities segment, although I am still confident in the long-term fundamentals of India. Marine as expected post disastrous results.

Assuming an annualized EPS of 19cents, P/E at current price is 14.7.

M1 (FY2016Q2)

EPS in 2014 vs 2015:  $0.191 -> $0.191
EPS in previous 1H vs current: $0.096 -> $0.089
DPU in previous vs current: $0.153 -> $0.153
Price in previous vs current: $2.48 -> $2.78
Yield in previous vs current: 6.2% -> 5.5%

Management guided single digit decline in profit. Not good at all. Interim dividends of 7c is maintained.

They are investing in new technologies but it will take the longer term to see any payoff.


Capital Commercial Trust (FY2016Q2)

DPU in 2014 vs 2015: $0.086 -> $0.086
DPU in previous Q2 vs current: $0.0219 -> $0.0220
Price in previous vs current: $1.4 -> $1.55
Yield in previous vs current: 6.1% -> 5.5%
BV in previous vs current: $1.72 -> $1.72

Flat results and DPU should be maintained. I don't see any upsides or downsides now, and at this price it's probably fully valued.
Accordia Golf Trust (FY2016Q1)

DPU in previous Q1 vs current: $0.00176 -> $0.0182 (12M: $0.0663)
Price in previous vs current: $0.65 -> $0.68
Yield in previous vs current: ~10%
BV in previous vs current: $0.89 -> $0.96

Slight decrease in operating income (2.3%) due to heavy rains and earthquake, but DPU increased slightly due to Yen appreciation. Profits after tax is 6% lower.

No of visitors and utilization rate went slightly lower due to above reasons, but should not pose too much concern. This is still trading at a huge discount to NAV which is my safety net.

My yield cow for the long term.

ST Engineering (FY2016Q2)

Flattish results but management foresee lower profits compared to 2015.

This is in contrast with the "comparable profits" guidance given earlier, leading to selldown in share price.
Straits Times Index (FY2016)

Not Applicable


Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Mayday Just Rock It 2016

Attended my 3rd Mayday concert after a 3 year hiatus.

Song List (credits to Benjamin)
1. Do You Ever Shine
2. 三個傻瓜
3. 你不是真正的快樂
4. 為愛而生
5. 超人
6. 雌雄同體
7. 候鳥
8. 終結孤單
9. 尬車
10. 離開地球表面
11. 諾亞方舟
12. 知足
13. 瘋狂世界
14. 志明與春嬌
15. 笑忘歌
16. 盛夏光年
17. 頑固
18. 乾杯
19. 將軍令
20. 入陣曲
21. 我不願讓你一個人
22. 勇敢
23. 憨人
24. 一個蘋果
25. 人生海海
26. 派對動物
27. 傷心的人別聽慢歌
28. 如果我們不曾相遇
29. 溫柔
31. 後來的我們
32. 突然好想你
33. 兄弟
34. 人生有限公司
35. OAOA
36. 倔強
37. 戀愛ing

I went back and take a look at the review of the first Mayday concert I attended, and I can spot many similarities.

Pros:
1. They retained many "classic segments" of their concerts - in particular the "La~La la la~" of 憨人 and the "white butterflies climax" of 温柔. These 桥段 never gets old despite being re-used for a long time. They are some of my favourite parts of the concert.

2. Once again a "superb value for money" concert that lasts from 8:10pm to 11:45, over 3.5 hours. I believe most concerts are usually around 30 songs in 3 hours, but they always push it a little more to give back to their fans.

3. Awesome new high songs since their last concert. The "將軍令 + 入陣曲" portion was incredible.

4. They slot in some lesser known songs like 三個傻瓜, 雌雄同體, and also some hokkien ballads (志明與春嬌, 勇敢) which I felt was a nice touch. Pity that they seem to have took out 夜访吸血鬼 (1 of my favourite) in the Singapore concert.

5. I enjoyed their interactions (aka talking) with the fans a lot. It felt genuine and add a personal touch to the concert.

6. The most exhilarating finale to a concert I've experienced!

Cons:
1. After re-reading the 1st review, I actually mentioned that I should have brought seating area tickets. Must keep that in mind next time! I feel it's no point getting the "ground-level" seats as you are often blocked by people, and spend most of the time watching the screen anyway.

2. Not really a con but more of due to the theme of the concert being "Rock", the song proportion were allocated that way. If you look at the song list, about 80% of them were more fast-paced/rock/high songs, and hence the remaining are allocated to their most well-known ballads. You will miss out a lot of their 'secondary' ballads, most notably: 仓颉,星空,步步,如烟,天使.

3. Compared to the Noah Ark concert, this one has a much weaker theme in my opinion. The previous one has a strong overarching plot - The end of the World. Each segment is divided by short video clips telling the story of the lead struggles with the nuclear power project. The world is eventually destroyed and he travels back to the past to change history. (The fact that I still vaguely remember the storyline even now shows how good it is) The songs fits very well and it's like watching a movie. Anyway, you can't have everything right?

Talking Portion

High to the max!

Awesome finale!