This week, someone I know was administered into the hospital and I went to visit him.
There, I see many frail and old people.
Tubes and needles being inserted into them... It's a really saddening sight.
I think it's something people of my age don't really get to see often.
It's something we don't think about because we still have our youth and health.
...
I imagined the day when I would be lying down on one of these bed, looking back at what I have achieved.
When we were young, we were processed through the system to study. When we reached our 20s, we put off plans to pursue our interests to get into higher paying jobs. In our 30s or 40s, we delay plans to travel the world in order to build our families, to pay off our housing loans.
And then we continue to put off plans to pay for our kids university, to buy a bigger house, a bigger car, etc...
Before you knew it, we would be in our 60s.
By then, we would have lost most of our health and energy.
Do we really want a life where we only live to pursue more and more zeroes in our bank account? Or is this just some plan to enrich other people? Other people who created this "system" who made us think this is a normal life?
For me, I know when I will have enough.
Enough that I can tell myself: I won't be a burden to society or anyone. I can feed myself and live in contentment. And I will know it's time to quit the race.
"How in the hell could a man enjoy being awakened at 6:30am by an alarm clock, leap out of bed, dress, force-feed, shit, piss, brush teeth and hair, and fight traffic to get to a place where essentially you made lots of money for somebody else and were asked to be grateful for the opportunity to do so?" - Charles Bukowski
Friday, March 17, 2017
Thursday, March 16, 2017
What Can You Learn From Board Games?
Wow!
If I recall correctly, this would be my first full year of attending the Board Games Meetup.
To date, I've played around 100 games of all kinds: Cooperative, deduction, classic-euro, negotiation, diplomacy, economic, dexterity, resource management, etc...
And for each game, you can learn all kind of "soft-skills", such as:
1. Expand your vocabulary and ability to link unrelated stuffs in Codenames.
2. Train your ability to keep a straight face and "sow discord" in Secret Hitler.
3. Test your imagination and judgement skills in Dixit.
4. Your negotiation and charisma to bring people to your side in I'm the Boss.
5. Your deduction, story-telling, teamwork and puzzle solving skills in Time Stories.
The list goes on.
I think "outsiders" are still stuck in the old days where they think Board Games = Monopoly, Scrabble and Uno.
Nowadays, there are much more variety of games that engages you in all aspects.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recently, I've had the chance to play this game call "Panic on Wallstreet", a negotiation economic game based on luck and probability.
Playing this game, I can really feel the different styles that different kind of players adapt.
While most managers and investors play "by the rules" and negotiate in the pit, there are a couple who "strike up their own private deals". Instead of touting in the mass market, they build up their own network by personally approaching investors.
This builds up "rapport" and "regular customers" which they can take advantage of, where they have less fear of failing to sell their stocks. On the other hand, time pressure can often force managers to let go of their properties at ridiculously low-price.
We have master mathematicians who try to bid for deals where they will "never lose" (at most break-even), and master negotiators who try to squeeze every inch of juice out from the other party.
I just feel it's amazing that I can see such diverse attitudes and styles towards a simple game that simulate the real world.
If I recall correctly, this would be my first full year of attending the Board Games Meetup.
To date, I've played around 100 games of all kinds: Cooperative, deduction, classic-euro, negotiation, diplomacy, economic, dexterity, resource management, etc...
And for each game, you can learn all kind of "soft-skills", such as:
1. Expand your vocabulary and ability to link unrelated stuffs in Codenames.
2. Train your ability to keep a straight face and "sow discord" in Secret Hitler.
3. Test your imagination and judgement skills in Dixit.
4. Your negotiation and charisma to bring people to your side in I'm the Boss.
5. Your deduction, story-telling, teamwork and puzzle solving skills in Time Stories.
The list goes on.
I think "outsiders" are still stuck in the old days where they think Board Games = Monopoly, Scrabble and Uno.
Nowadays, there are much more variety of games that engages you in all aspects.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recently, I've had the chance to play this game call "Panic on Wallstreet", a negotiation economic game based on luck and probability.
Playing this game, I can really feel the different styles that different kind of players adapt.
While most managers and investors play "by the rules" and negotiate in the pit, there are a couple who "strike up their own private deals". Instead of touting in the mass market, they build up their own network by personally approaching investors.
This builds up "rapport" and "regular customers" which they can take advantage of, where they have less fear of failing to sell their stocks. On the other hand, time pressure can often force managers to let go of their properties at ridiculously low-price.
We have master mathematicians who try to bid for deals where they will "never lose" (at most break-even), and master negotiators who try to squeeze every inch of juice out from the other party.
I just feel it's amazing that I can see such diverse attitudes and styles towards a simple game that simulate the real world.
Sunday, March 05, 2017
Every Singaporean Life?
Come across this fascinating article about the supposed life of every Singaporean, and the author rebuttal against it.
My thoughts?
When you want 5 star hotel wedding, take 30 year loan for million dollar condo, buy big car, go annual vacation to Europe/US, change latest iphone every year, how to save for retirement?
Chinese have this saying: No so big head, don't wear so big hat. If you are a peasant (and earn a peasant income), don't try to live an elite life.
No doubt there are people truly living in poverty in Singapore (don't earn enough to even put 3 meals on table, much less save), but also got lot of cases is people die die want to buy something they can't afford (throw all their savings/take on big debts for car and house) and then claim they nothing left for retirement.
I don't deny the cost of living in Singapore is extremely high, but I think that gives us even more reason to be prudent with our earnings.
"Rich people stay rich by living like they're broke. Poor people stay poor by living like they're rich."
I can only shrug my shoulders when I see people who are lazy to even write a form to credit their salary to a higher interest account (a one time effort and gets you free money).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instead of the article, I would like to propose an alternative.
The below assumes you have the privilege to pursue financial independence. Generally, this means:
- You and your dependents (family), are generally healthy and does not have long term and huge medical bills.
- Your family does not depend on you for survival, and you do not have to spend a huge portion of your income on them.
- You income is not too low (Subjective, but I would say below 2.5K)
In my opinion, most graduates from middle income family would have no problem meeting these criteria.
1. Study hard, get a good degree, earn a median income and try to have as high of a saving rate as possible, especially in your 20s (the first 5 year is crucial).
2. If applicable, clear all your debts ASAP, do not rack up credit card or any other debt, and do not waste money on useless shit. Do not take debt to go on vacation, buy liabilities and other non-income producing crap.
3. Save up emergency fund of 6 months, and put them in a high interest account. Then start saving for your warchest. Try to hit 1 year annual saving before 30s. This immediately gives you passive income of $1.2K per year (or ~$100 per month).
4. Start investing properly and correctly. Even if you are extremely conservative, you should get around 5% return over the long term.
5. Earn money -> invest -> collect dividends -> re-invest your dividends. Keep repeating this for the next 10 years.
6. If you decide to get married, have a simple wedding, simple honeymoon, buy an affordable house. Do not buy a car. If you have a child, be prepare to delay your retirement if you want to send your kid to expensive enrichment and tuition. If you really want to leave a legacy for your child, try starting a portfolio for him/her instead. He/she will have additional 20 years of compounding.
7. If you follow this diligently, by the time you're in your 40s, your investment (passive income) can easily cover more than half of your expenses (saving rate ~50%). If your saving rate is truly insane (>70%), you might even reach financial independence here. If you haven't, continue doing step 5 for the next 10 years and you would achieve the same. It's all up to your saving rate at this point.
8. As a guideline, aim to have minimum 1 year annual income of savings by 30s. 5 by 40s, 10 by 50s.
If you are willing to even put in a little effort to learn right investing, optimize your savings, and don't over indulge in luxuries, I am very sure most can achieve FIRE within 20 years. Many local bloggers have achieved it much much earlier on median income, in their 30s even. So 20 years is a really conservative estimate already.
Problem is, are people willing to put in the effort?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An article from the Four Pillar that I feel closely related to this article.
Essentially, this post is saying it's difficult to change human behavior and beliefs (just like my post about old generation view of insurance). We are like opium addicts of consumerism.
To them, it's a ridiculous idea. It's in the realm of "what they do not know they do not know" - like the 4th dimension.
My thoughts?
When you want 5 star hotel wedding, take 30 year loan for million dollar condo, buy big car, go annual vacation to Europe/US, change latest iphone every year, how to save for retirement?
Chinese have this saying: No so big head, don't wear so big hat. If you are a peasant (and earn a peasant income), don't try to live an elite life.
No doubt there are people truly living in poverty in Singapore (don't earn enough to even put 3 meals on table, much less save), but also got lot of cases is people die die want to buy something they can't afford (throw all their savings/take on big debts for car and house) and then claim they nothing left for retirement.
I don't deny the cost of living in Singapore is extremely high, but I think that gives us even more reason to be prudent with our earnings.
"Rich people stay rich by living like they're broke. Poor people stay poor by living like they're rich."
I can only shrug my shoulders when I see people who are lazy to even write a form to credit their salary to a higher interest account (a one time effort and gets you free money).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Instead of the article, I would like to propose an alternative.
The below assumes you have the privilege to pursue financial independence. Generally, this means:
- You and your dependents (family), are generally healthy and does not have long term and huge medical bills.
- Your family does not depend on you for survival, and you do not have to spend a huge portion of your income on them.
- You income is not too low (Subjective, but I would say below 2.5K)
In my opinion, most graduates from middle income family would have no problem meeting these criteria.
1. Study hard, get a good degree, earn a median income and try to have as high of a saving rate as possible, especially in your 20s (the first 5 year is crucial).
2. If applicable, clear all your debts ASAP, do not rack up credit card or any other debt, and do not waste money on useless shit. Do not take debt to go on vacation, buy liabilities and other non-income producing crap.
3. Save up emergency fund of 6 months, and put them in a high interest account. Then start saving for your warchest. Try to hit 1 year annual saving before 30s. This immediately gives you passive income of $1.2K per year (or ~$100 per month).
4. Start investing properly and correctly. Even if you are extremely conservative, you should get around 5% return over the long term.
5. Earn money -> invest -> collect dividends -> re-invest your dividends. Keep repeating this for the next 10 years.
6. If you decide to get married, have a simple wedding, simple honeymoon, buy an affordable house. Do not buy a car. If you have a child, be prepare to delay your retirement if you want to send your kid to expensive enrichment and tuition. If you really want to leave a legacy for your child, try starting a portfolio for him/her instead. He/she will have additional 20 years of compounding.
7. If you follow this diligently, by the time you're in your 40s, your investment (passive income) can easily cover more than half of your expenses (saving rate ~50%). If your saving rate is truly insane (>70%), you might even reach financial independence here. If you haven't, continue doing step 5 for the next 10 years and you would achieve the same. It's all up to your saving rate at this point.
8. As a guideline, aim to have minimum 1 year annual income of savings by 30s. 5 by 40s, 10 by 50s.
If you are willing to even put in a little effort to learn right investing, optimize your savings, and don't over indulge in luxuries, I am very sure most can achieve FIRE within 20 years. Many local bloggers have achieved it much much earlier on median income, in their 30s even. So 20 years is a really conservative estimate already.
Problem is, are people willing to put in the effort?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
An article from the Four Pillar that I feel closely related to this article.
Essentially, this post is saying it's difficult to change human behavior and beliefs (just like my post about old generation view of insurance). We are like opium addicts of consumerism.
To them, it's a ridiculous idea. It's in the realm of "what they do not know they do not know" - like the 4th dimension.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Quarterly Results Review - 2016Q4
Frasers Centrepoint Trust | DPU is maintained despite the fall in revenue due to corresponding fall in expenses. Northpoint revenue down 25% dude to ongoing AEI. Slight increase in debt due to acquisition of Yishun 10 retail podium. Occupancy is stable at its 2 jewels, but show signs of decreasing at the smaller malls - especially Bedok Point. It 's amazing they are still getting positive rental revision (+6.9%) in the current retail climate, proving just how resilient their malls are. NAV is $1.93 and I expect full year DPU of 11.7c. At current price, yield is 5.9%. |
Super Group | Awaiting takeover at $1.3. Expected to cash out in April. |
Sembcorp Industries | Full year dividend has fallen to 8c, a far cry from the >16c when I first got vested. Utilities is stable and net profit would be up 4% excluding one-time items. Marine is finally back in (slight) black after taking huge write-downs last year. This is really one of the better quarterly results in a long time. Full year EPS is 19.9 (I expected 19c worst case) and DPS is 8c (I expected 10c). Their payout ratio dropped from ~50% to 40%, signifying they are preserving cash. Management guided a challenging 2017, but I believe the worst is over for Sembcorp. |
M1 | Profits for the year fell 16.1% mainly due to lower international call, roaming (even I cancelled this) and increased depreciation of 4G network assets. Only saving grace is their fibre, postpaid and prepaid customers are still growing. This comes at a cost of ARPU as they really "offer gao gao". Even I switched to M1 Fibre. Full Year DPU is 12.9 cents (down from 15.3), and EPS is 16.1 (down from 19.0). Yield at price of $2 is 6.45%. Management guided challenging environment, and growth in other "business areas" (IOT, data analytics) as they always do. I might consider averaging down if it comes down to 7% yield. |
Capital Commercial Trust | Surprising Q4 results with a 10% increase in DPU due to full acquisition of CapitaGreen, resulting in full year DPU of 9.08c. Management expects slight negative rental revision in the future, but this is already well known. 80% fixed interest debts with AEI of Golden Shoe as its main growth catalyst going forward. At $1.57, this is yielding 5.8%. Holding for the long term. |
Accordia Golf Trust | DPU fell from 2.16 to 2.09 (3.2% lower) due to slightly lower revenue ("warmer winters") and higher expenses. While they claim it's due to weather, profits does seem to be gradually trending down. I have to observe this for a few more months but thankfully, the yield is consider high. Price to book is 0.68 (book value: 0.93). I'm expecting yearly dividend of 4.8c which yields around 6.8% at current price of $0.7. This is a fall from the 7.4% expectation previously. |
ST Engineering | Much better than expected results with a surprisingly strong Q4. I am looking to get back if the chance arises. |
Singtel | Showed resilliant results (net profit up 2%) when its peers are down in doldrums (both M1 and Starhub down 30 %). Nothing much to say except I'm confident. Looking forward to Netlink IPO later this year. |
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd | Really surprising results with net profits up 90% due to profit recognition from Suzhou, China and Singapore. FCL currently has about 46%, 33%, 9% and 7% assets in Singapore, Australia, China and Europe respective - and they are looking to increase investments in overseas assets for long term growth. It's a good diversification from SG for me. 70% of the assets and 50% of net profits are from recurring sources (i.e REITs), which provides a good "baseline" of dividends. Despite the relatively high level of debt, I am quite confident in its management. Dividends has been maintained at 8.6c for the past 3 years (5.8% yield at $1.495, very high for a property developer). |
Straits Times Index | Distributions actually went up to 53c! This was a huge surprise given the drop to 42c previously. |
Sunday, February 19, 2017
3 Meanings For The Same Word!
I'm obsessed with this song recently.
It's a really simple and sweet love song that can put a smile on your face.
It's brilliantly written - and it also reminds me why I love the Chinese Language so much.
1. 小心 肝 = Be Careful (Take Care) of Liver
2. 小 心肝 = Small Heart & Liver
3. 小心肝 = Little Baby/Honey
Liang Wen Fu taught me 语带双关.
This song taught me "语带三关".
It's a really simple and sweet love song that can put a smile on your face.
It's brilliantly written - and it also reminds me why I love the Chinese Language so much.
1. 小心 肝 = Be Careful (Take Care) of Liver
2. 小 心肝 = Small Heart & Liver
3. 小心肝 = Little Baby/Honey
Liang Wen Fu taught me 语带双关.
This song taught me "语带三关".
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