Saturday, January 19, 2019

Year In Review 2018 - Annual Financial Report

Presenting 2018 (5th) Annual Financial Report!


Key Highlights & Notes From CEO

"Financial Freedom Is Not About Money, It’s About Living Your Best Life"


Every day, we build our portfolio bit by bit, brick by brick, for the ultimate goal of escaping the rat race in the not so distant future.

This has been arduous year with many challenges in the market, but despite the setback we still took significant steps towards FIRE. We completed our 2nd year in the new job, continued steady capital injections and broke multiple financial milestones.

Our Achievements (2018)
1. Total net asset value grew 16%
2. Highest ever annual saving rate of 80.8% (80.5% in 2017, 78.2% in 2016)
3. Safety passive income now cover 65% of our recurring expenses (41% in 2017, 28% in 2016)
4. Portfolio market value grew 38% (inclusive of capital injection and gains)
5. Portfolio XIRR for 2017 at -10.17% (20.8% gain in 2017, 15.6% gain in 2016)
6. By XD-Date, distributed over $7800 worth of dividends ($4900 in 2017, $3200 in 2016)

Our Balance Sheet (2018)
Going forward, we would measure our balance sheet by how long we can sustain ourselves if all cash inflow were to stop today. All figures are based on trailing 12 months average.

Survival Burn Rate = Recurring expenses needed for essential survival
LEAN FI Rate = Expenses needed to maintain our current lifestyle
FI Rate = Lifestyle with built-in buffer that we want to achieve in Financial Independence

Our next milestone goal is to attain the holy grail of "25 years annual expenses" - the classic and minimal definition of Financial Independence. Numbers fell in 2018 due to significant increase in our expenses, which is likely to continue rising every year. Despite this, we are confident of reaching this milestone latest by end Year 2021.


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Income Statement
Total income was 27% higher than last year - our highest growth rate since inception. Operating income was 22% higher, driven by higher base salary and bonus.

Passive income increased 40% and now makes up >13% of our total income - thanks to huge dividends growth, switch to DBS Multiplier and increasing SIBOR rate for Maxigain.

Expenses were around 25% higher and also our highest year mostly due to 1-time expenses, especially from April vacation and insurance policies. We expect 1-time expense to trend even higher in 2019 as we take over all policies.  Recurring expenses were in-line at right around the average of past 3 years.


*All figures exclude CPF and investment capital gains/losses.
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Saving Rate For 2018
2018 marked our highest income, expense and saving rate year ever. Saving rate inched up another 0.3% from last year. Assuming no change to main revenue, we expect our saving rate to remain above 80%.


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Recurring Expenses Breakdown
Categorical expenditures remained pretty much the same as every year. Top expenditures were the essentials - food, travel (transport) and utilities (internet and phone).



Random discovery time!

1. Lottery spending in 2018 was around $350 ($50 higher than 2017), yet I won back much lesser at $15 ($80 in 2017). There goes my annual $300 donation to Singapore Pools.

2. I ate fast food 64 times (70 in 2017, 81 in 2016), counting only lunch, dinner, supper, with an average of $7.5 per meal. It is getting lesser, and I am hoping to keep it below 60 in 2019.

3. I brought 22 (11 in 2017, 31 in 2016) cups of Bubble Tea (i.e Koi, Gong Cha) this year. This was probably due to more brands entering the market and the "need" to try them all... Still I think this number is consider low among my friends.

4. I brought 4 cups of Cafe drinks (Starbucks, Coffee Bean) but this figure is high distorted. There are many "lower-end starbucks" and "pop-up stores" that I brought drinks from which were not tagged.

5. Visited restaurants 32 times (20 in 2017), but a handful of trips were just to utilize vouchers. Discounting these, each restaurant trip only averaged $14 - proving that I mostly stucked with "low-class restaurant" like Ajisan and Swensens. Even the most expensives meals cost just $20+.

6. Only 10 KTV sessions this year! Anyone want go sing? :(

7. Spent less than $100 on Taxi/Uber/Grab for the whole year.

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Passive Income VS Recurring Expenses

Passive income grew more than 60%! Equities valuation were definitely more attractive compared to 2017 and granted us good opportunities to take huge leaps forward.



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Portfolio Performance

Our worst year since inception with a XIRR of -10.2%, underpforming the STI by almost 4%. Despite this, we still grew the size of  by 38% thanks to the staggering amount of capital injection.

YearPortfolioES3
2014-2.94%7.00%
2015-8.17%-10.95%
201611.97%3.08%
201722.00%21.11%
2018-10.40%-6.63%
We made some major acquisitions this year on the back of more attractive valuation, grabbing Starhill Global REIT and Kimly, averaging down on M1 and increased our stakes substantially in Netlink Trust, Singtel and the STI. Trade-wise, we made some small money and distributions from CapitaMall Trust.

Majority of our losses came from Kimly and Singtel, offset by the privitization offer of M1.

Our major holdings currently are Singtel, Kimly and the STI. Excluding the STI, we have a healthy and diversified portfolio of 11 holdings (up from 10 last year and 8 in 2016).

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Review of 2018 Goals
We far exceeded our 2018 goal of $500/mth of dividends and hit over $600/mth.

Expenses were 25% higher (projected 10%) on the back of insurance policies and major loss in 2018Q1.

Outlook For 2019 
We will continue our core strategy of building up a divesified income portfolio backed by index foundation. We are more than 10 year into the bull-run and the music got to stop one day.

Once again, our ammunition have replenished entirely after December, and would fatten even more in March. Hopefully we have opportunities to deploy them before the dividends season come in Q2.

This year goal would be to exceed $10,000 worth of dividends - an ambitious and lofty goal, so hopefully we get some Great Singapore Sale. Current SGXCafe projection stands at $8000.

There is a good chance of a income source switch which would definitely have impact on revenue. For now, we would let nature take its course.

2019 is the year we completely take over insurance policies from our parent company, so we expect expenses to rise quite signicantly. Holidays are on the card as well, but nothing too lavish.


Long Term Goals
Depending on when the great correction/meltdown occur, we intend to soon diversify into the global markets. By the end of this year, we should have solidified our local portfolio. Letting it grow any larger would placed great exposure and expections on Singapore Economy.

Although I am personally confident in Singapore, I still could not risk placing all our money in 1 basket. What if we experience a lost decade like Japan?

Some long term directions, likely to start in 2020:
- Open Interactive Brokers Account (Start with DCA and within 2 years grow it to more than $100K USD when we can enjoy $10 platform fee waiver)
- Indexing World ETF via IWDA + EIMI (Currently near 1-year low and we would definitely go in should it drop to lower $40s). Both ETFs automatically reinvest dividends (i.e accumulating units).
- Indexing for China via Heng Seng Index (HK 2800). China growth in the next 20 years should be immense.
- Local portfolio reached substantial size to start lending shares for extra income

Our long term roadmap:

Year 2019: Continuing to build up recurring expense buffer.
Year 2020: Start diversifying into global markets.
Year 2021: Reach "25 Years Expense" Networth.
Year 2022: Eligibility to buy HDB.
Year 2023: Passive income completely cover all-expenses. Save 100% of salary annually.
Year 2025: Financial Independence.

Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Letter To Shareholders (13) - Performance Review 2018Q4

As usual, the Q4 review will be shorter in preparation of the Annual Report.

Economy Commentary
Singapore market and essentially the world markets all face severe pressure in the past months, mainly from Fed interest hikes, trade war and geopolitical risks. STI went down 6.6% YTD, and world indices dropped 9%.

In local markets, we saw the implosion of Asian Pay TV Trust (risk of blindly chasing yield without consideration of sustainability), value destructing rights issue from KBS UBS REIT (stock price fall to rights issue price, highlighting the importance of good management) and Lippo Malls (risk of foreign REITs).



Performance Review Highlights
A falling tide sinks all boats, and our portfolio was not spared. The crash of Kimly was a massive blow to our performance and taught us valuable lessons. YTD, our portfolio is down almost 10.2%. The absolute figure is much more terrifying compared to the correction back in 2015 when our asset size were much smaller.

Lessons Learnt:
We knew Kimly was a speculative position (but still based on fundamentals) right from the start, and we made money initially. Instead of cutting losses after the tide turned, we stupidly held on. 
Cut your losses as soon as you are proven wrong. Don't 心存侥幸 and "hope", especially for such a substantial position.


Evaluating What To Do Now:
While the investigation was unfortunate, Kimly fundamentals actually did not change at all. They are still basically debt free, sitting on mountains ($70m) of cash and still very much profitable (slow growth). The criminal case will no doubt be a huge hangover on the stock price. With with same business, 30% lower price, and no indication of something serious like dishonest management/falsifying accounts, etc... there is really no justification to sell. 


The management subsequently released a long list of initiatives, probably meant to calm investors. Centralized kitchens, tablet ordering at zi char stalls, customer rewards programme, own brand of coffee/tea, etc... pushing on with their growth strategies. They are all good, but action speaks louder than words - It all depends if they can execute and show results now. 

On the good news side, we distributed $1200+ dividends in Q4 for a record-breaking year!


Operating Highlights - Income
We reached new heights once again, attaining almost 10% higher income than last year - driven by higher base salary (same bonus multiple) and passive income. SG Bonus and IPPT Pass with Incentive were the icing on the cake.


Operating Highlights - Expenses
No special one-time expenses aside from usual Tax and new Insurance payments.

Regular expenses were slightly higher due to several items: Renewal of Stocks Cafe membership for 7 years, health checkup package, and a new pair of Creative Gigawork speakers (could not resist the 12/12 deals).


Utilities cost will increase significantly going forward due to higher recontract mobile and fibre plans. 


Acquisitions & Developments
We traded Capitamall Trust one more time to earn some loose change ($600+), and also fire a bullet on STI after the recent drawdown .This is the closest STI has been to 3000 for more than a year, and valuations are definitely on the cheaper side. Not dirt cheap yet, but a fair price to pay.

As of now, we are most concerned with Singtel and Kimly, and will be monitoring them closely.


Operating Updates
All good times must come to an end - Citibank finally caved in to the raising SIBOR and admended the terms of Maxigain account (from 80% of SIBOR to 70%).

Despite this, calculation shows that we am still able to get at least 2.3% interest (compounded) which makes it competitive against other products and even SSB. 

Good for you Citibank, but do not take it too far. 


Outlook
More in the annual report.

Saturday, November 24, 2018

The 7th Greenland

Back to Greenlands again, for the 7th time.

At first I thought it would serve as an "escape" for me, but once again I am proven wrong.

In the end, I reached the same conclusion as 10 years ago.

I really don't like this environment.

And I did the most WTF thing ever and probably pushing myself to the limits.

In an insomnia state, went to take a 2nd consecutive physical fitness test midway digging a grave.

And I still managed to pass! Even I am surprised.

Also, I reached the conclusion that my Insomnia is definitely not due to work, because it happens even when I'm in this place.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Why Long Term Investing Works - Explained By Visual

This could be one of the most insightful set of visuals.











If Millennials are planning for retirement 30-40 years from now, they should know the stock market has never cut a loss over any 20-year period from 1926–2015.



The odds of realizing a positive stock return are 100% over any 20-year period during that timeframe. Let me repeat. Stocks have never seen a loss over any 20-year time period from 1926-2015. Never. Not once.



But what about over shorter intervals, you ask? How about 10 years? A sobering 94% of the time there was a gain. 5 years? 86%.



What if you buy today and hope to sell it for a profit next week? Your chances are barely  better than a coin flip.

Saturday, October 06, 2018

Letter To Shareholders (12) - Performance Review 2018Q3

Economy Commentary
Singapore market went through a mini rollercoaster ride in the past 3 months, going up to 3300 then down to 3100 and now back to 3200 again. Trade war seems to have no impact on the US markets as they kept breaking all time high.

From this quarter onwards, we will be discontinuing Quarterly Results Review - it seems to have became a "for the sake of writing" commentary providing only basic information without much substance. Instead, we shall integrate important portfolio developments in the Quarterly Performance Review.


Performance Review Highlights
Our portfolio was saved by the buyout offer of M1 shares (on the last day of Q3!), raising its value nearly 30% in a single day. Entire portfolio value skyrocketed $3700, which I believe is the largest ever single day increase.

We are down 4% year to date compare to 1% down of the STI, mostly dragged down by Kimly. Excluding this stock, we would be nearly even. Would our growth assessment of this coffee shop business come true? Or will this huge position left a huge scar in our portfolio? Only time will tell and 2019 should be a game changing year.

We gave out $2600 worth of dividends (thanks to a massive distribution from Singtel) which is once again our best Q3 yet. This will be a record-breaking year of dividends!



Operating Highlights - Income
Another all-time high quarter - Higher salary, higher passive income and even higher one-time income due to a recontract of mobile plan and selling iPhone for $560 profits. Unfortunately, the expiry of our old corporate plan also meant a much higher monthly recurring cost.

This was a big mistake on hindsight. I did not do enough research before re-contracting, and in the aftermath realized there were much cheaper SIM only plans with huge data, and cost only like $30 in the market. Instead, what I got was a $60 plan with upfront $560 "profits" to spread out the cost.

All in all, it wasn't worth it. I was tricked into believing:
1. My corporate plan discount was higher than what was advertised (turned out the promotion expired like 3 days before I recontract) I did not re-confirmed the discount rate again when I signed.
2. False advertising by a very enthusiastic Citibank Credit Card salesguy, mislead me into believing the benefits are good when there are many terms and clauses making it difficult to hit the advertised rebate rate (common trick by many banks. Haiz. I should have been more aware.)

This mistake is probably going to cost me hundred dollars or so, and lesser data/month for the next 2 years. I really learnt my lesson from this. Always double check! 


Operating Highlights - Expenses
Recurring expenses/one-time expenses were both in-line with the past 3 years, with the traditional August angbao for Mum.



Acquisitions & Developments
We brought Kimly early this quarter based on the same proposition: 

Kimly - Defensive consumer staple with strong cash flow, high cash balance and organic growth prospects. This is more of a capital-gain and opportune play.

We sold Capitamall Trust to earn some "coffee money". Hopefully we will get a chance to buy it back soon (afternote: we did), as Funan should provide some catalyst for the longer term. We are not so sure about the Westgate acquistion.


Operating Updates
Finally decided to do a little streamlining by closing our OCBC360 account. The $3000 could be better off earning $5/mth in DBS Multiplier compared to $0.70 per month in OCBC360.

We delayed so long mainly due to GIRO and other stock crediting arrangements, but now I realize it's not that difficult to switch. Everything can be done online and essentially a new submission will overwrite the previous. This will also reduce the hassle of transferring small amounts here and there just to pay different bills every month.

With that, we officialy say goodbye to OCBC360 which has accompanied us for more than 5 yrs.


Outlook
My working capital remains lean, with about 3 bullets (1.5 bullet from the recent sale of CMT)  to play around with. We intend to selectively "trade" using what we have right now while waiting for the big refill in December to come in. The future of Kimly will make or break our portfolio this year.

2018 is shaping up to be another milestone year as we break major goals: "25 years expense" holy grail, 5 digits passive income and more. Looking forward to the annual report!

Some stocks on our watchlist include:

STI ES3 (3.2), ST Engineering (3.2), Capitaland (2.8), Sembcorp Ind (2.5 or 75% of book value), Mapletree Commercial Trust (1.55), Singtel (3), Raffles Medical Group (0.9), Far East HTrust (0.6 or 6.5% yield), Frasers Property (Below 1.6, NAV at 2.45, 8.6c dividend over 5% yield)