When a kid knows more about FIRE than you...
It took me nearly 25 years, and this kid has it all figured out during elementary school.
"I don't expect to be able to escape from the trials of reincarnation, but at least I can escape from the repetitive mechanical loop of life."
He may have put it very crudely in words - 发财.
But what this boy want is not money, but freedom in life, to get rid of the hollowness of life.
He might not know what it is yet, but what he has described is truly FIRE.
Monday, May 28, 2018
Saturday, May 19, 2018
Life Updates 2018
1. The Infinity War made me a Marvel fan again! Started going back to look up on many movies I've missed (Dr Strange, Ant Man, Guardians of Galaxy series, etc) and oh my how much have I missed! Guardian of the Galaxy in particular was the cosmic side of Marvel I never knew, and I really enjoyed the humor in that series.
2. Work-wise there isn't really nothing much to say. Operational stuff takes up a majority of the time, and I'm hoping for more opportunities to strengthen my visualization, analytics and maybe even machine learning skillset. There are definitely times when I feel down and dejected, but I have to persevere for my long-term goal.
3. MED is making me feel like it's University Year 1 all over again, almost 10 years apart. She is one of the little happiness I have here, one of the few things that can put a smile on my face, and I don't really want to risk destroying it and have it become a problem. And I always forget my lyrics.
4. Sometimes, I do get overwhelmed with this feeling of solitude. The feeling of really wanting someone to share experiences with. When I'm watching variety show, I wished there was someone to laugh together with. When I want to sing, to watch movies, I wish there was someone that would always be available - some person that I can always hang out with. Maybe it's just the symptoms of getting old. I think it is also affected by having less friends as they all start to have their own families & babies.
I really envy couples like 15HWW, BFGF, KPO and CZM. How lucky are they to find a significant other who share the same FIRE dream? How easy is it to find someone when your "life goal" is so socially unacceptable?
5. While I still attend board game gathering occassionally, frequency has greatly diminished. Now, it's more like once or twice a month. Somehow, I no longer feel the same vibrancy like the past. Maybe it's just people "moving on with their lives", or "running out of fresh games".
6. BTS and their content are taking up a good part of my entertainment these days. This is the first time I have gotten so into a KPop group (in terms of music anyway) and I can definitely see why they are the number 1 group in the world right now (even John freaking Cena is their fan). It's hard to pin-point exactly what made them so successful aside from being just "pretty boys" - A combination of charisma, chemistry, intellectual and goofiness, cheoreogrpahy, music and production effort (years and years of inter-connected storylines and plot in their MVs, it's like a never-ending suspense movie).
It is quite a feat how they bounce back from a company that was on the verge of bankruptcy (when the members were made fun of and some even had to go hungry) to the profitable entertianment label in Korea, surpassing even the Big 3.
Their life stories are reflected heavily in their songs and touch on an extremely wide amount of topics (lyrically), which is very "Mayday-like" (perhaps 1 of the big reason I like them) - prodigy culture in Korea (望子成龙), studying life, their love for music, comparing depressed youths to the 52Hz whale, society stigma, roasting of haters, to even observations like younger generation leeching on their parents, their YOLO attitude, low self-esteem, the list goes on.
Do I feel too old to like them? Kinda, but this ARMY thing really has a cult-like following and it's really quite entertaining. Fellow youtubers confessing to each other online? Reactions? Crack Videos? Run Episodes and all sorts of creative edits?
Some of my favourite songs, in terms of music: Let Me Know, Crystal Snow, Truth Untold, Awake and in terms of performance: Fire, Blood Sweat Tears, Mic Drop.
7. My insomnia problems are sort of getting better, but it's definitely still affecting me. I reckon it occurs about once a week now, but I would eventually be able to fall asleep say around 3am or 4am. It is not as bad as when I literally stay awake till 7am. I'm taken a few measures like early Gabanite, going to bed half an hour earlier, recording any special food or actions I did the night before and avoid them.
8. Health-wise, I really feel I'm getting "out of shape". I didn't have 6 packs or anything, but at least my tummy was flat and lightly defined. Now, it definitely feel like a mini beer belly developing (especially after food). I am determined to do something about it - running at least 2 times a week and doing lots of abdomen exercises.
9. There are sooooooo many games I want to play but I just didn't have the time to follow through. Some were released and brought (and played only like once), while others are upcoming games. Here's a list for everything I need to look at: Civ 6 Rise And Fall, Three Kingdoms Total War, Planet Coaster, Cities Skyline, Twopoint Hospital, Jurassic World: Evolution, Plutrocracy, Tropico 6.
Tuesday, May 01, 2018
Is FIRE an unaccepted idea in Singapore?
I briefly shared the concept of FIRE with a couple of friends lately and while they did not openly denounce it, I can feel them almost sneering at that idea/me. Sadly, FIRE still have a big social stigma in Singapore. I have written about it before, but this time I am actually experiencing it for myself.
I feel you will either come off as trying to show off, having people think you earn a lot, or being totally unrealistic. FIRE is just too foreign to most Singaporeans - retirement is already impossible, and you're think about doing it much early?!
Just look at the amount of diss netizens rain on ASSI, 3Fs and other financial bloggers on the same path or have already achieved the dream. People that can do just do it, people that can't complain. Well, not that I need their approval.
Like this author experience, I think it's an "Asian Culture" problem. FIRE is seen as something "wihout ambition" and failure to contribute to society.
I see friends that are earning much much more than me (talking about near 5 digits) "struggling" to meet payments for all sorts of luxuries - new cars, mature estate HDBs with expensive renovations. Nothing wrong, just different priorities in life.
In fact, FIRE isn't a loftly or noble goal either. In fact, I think FIRE is largely a selfish goal, a goal to serve yourself.
Also, a modern society probably cannot sustain one where everyone else is working towards FIRE and minimialism. In a way, the FIREers are depending on the consumerism behaviour of the masses to survive.
Anyway, what's my ideal age to reach FIRE? I am of the same opinion as the Financial Sumari.
I feel you will either come off as trying to show off, having people think you earn a lot, or being totally unrealistic. FIRE is just too foreign to most Singaporeans - retirement is already impossible, and you're think about doing it much early?!
Just look at the amount of diss netizens rain on ASSI, 3Fs and other financial bloggers on the same path or have already achieved the dream. People that can do just do it, people that can't complain. Well, not that I need their approval.
Like this author experience, I think it's an "Asian Culture" problem. FIRE is seen as something "wihout ambition" and failure to contribute to society.
I see friends that are earning much much more than me (talking about near 5 digits) "struggling" to meet payments for all sorts of luxuries - new cars, mature estate HDBs with expensive renovations. Nothing wrong, just different priorities in life.
In fact, FIRE isn't a loftly or noble goal either. In fact, I think FIRE is largely a selfish goal, a goal to serve yourself.
Also, a modern society probably cannot sustain one where everyone else is working towards FIRE and minimialism. In a way, the FIREers are depending on the consumerism behaviour of the masses to survive.
Anyway, what's my ideal age to reach FIRE? I am of the same opinion as the Financial Sumari.
Sunday, April 01, 2018
Letter To Shareholders (10) - Performance Review 2018Q1
Economy Commentary
Finally we saw a glimpse of the bear in February. Volatility is returning and hopefully we will get some chances to deploy our funds. There were a couple of days when the DOW fell more than 1000 points, but it quickly rebounded. STI hasn't even retract 10% and this is definitely nowhere near major sale-terriority yet.
Macro wise - we have the threat of US-Sino trade war brewing, de-nuclearization of North Korea, more incoming interest hikes and who knows what else the crazy president is going to do.
Locally, there is a lot to learn from the Noble Group saga. When it fell from over $1 to 60c, people were saying "there is no point selling now, it is already so cheap. It can't possibly get any cheaper." Well, cheaper did it get. After a 10-to-1 reverse stock split and more rights issue, it has since lost a further 90+% of its value. The important lesson here is not just that cheap can get cheaper, but how crucial the management are to a company, particularly for a cut-throat business. When you got selfish, incompetent and some might even say corrupted management, it is just not worth investing in the company no matter how cheap it is.
Performance Review Highlights
Our portfolio underperformed for Q1, losing 2% compared to STI which is still up 1% YTD. It was dragged down mostly by the recent REITs correction and the slight decline in Singtel (our biggest holding). At the trough, our portfolio was down as much as by $8000 from peak.
Interesting note: Our equities holding is nearly doubled from the same period last year! This is proof of how much we are pumping into investments.
In this quarter - we added Starhill Global REIT and M1 Limited, decisions we would elaborate more on below. Thanks to Singtel special dividends - we paid out over $2000 in dividends in Q1 (the largest amount of any quarter by far)!
Operating Highlights - Income
I really did not expect main income to exceed the record 2016Q1 figure, but the higher base-income plus good bonus made it about 5% higher. Financial-wise, moving on to this new job is definitely the right move. We made higher income in all the past 4 quarter - and I think the difference will be even more pronounced this year. Looking forward to the year end tally.
On top of one-time income from CNY angbaos, we made some gambling winnings ($300+) this year (compare to a loss last year). Passive income is also signifcantly higher. In local news, government announces a minor angbao to be credited later in this year.
Operating Highlights - Expenses
A lot was spent on insomnia supplements and other sleep aid "devices" . Some of them are quite ridiculous, but I am desparate now. I will try it as long as it has a sound chance of working, and I will continue to hunt for an effective cure. I also "impulse add-on buys" a couple of board games at Amazon for over $150, which are mostly bad buys looking at it now. I don't forsee the games being played much going foward, and it really goes against my minimalism philosophy. Will definitely work on curbing these buys in the future.
2018 marked the first year of giving my mum CNY angbao, and I intend to keep this "tradition" going forward. This made up the bulk of the "one-time" expense category. Interestingly, when I compare recurring expenses for the past 4 years, it is almost equal (within ~5% of each other).
New Account - DBS Multipler
One of the major decision this quarter was moving from OCBC360 to the new DBS Multipler. I will not go into specific review of the Multipler (you can read it here), but for our case, it offers a more compelling rate, especially after the repeated downgrade made to OCBC.
For OCBC 360, I get 1.55% every month, and 1.85% occassionally.
For DBS Mutlipler, I get at least 1.9% every month, often 2.2-2.3%, and perhaps even 3.5%!
A rough estimation:
OCBC: $70000 x 1.6% = $1120
DBS + CIMB: $50000 x 2.0% + ($17000 x 1.0%) = $1000 + $170 = $1170
DBS + Maxigain: $50000 x 2.0% + ($17000 x 2.0%) = $1000 + $340 = $1340
This is assuming the $3K remain in OCBC to maintain the account fall below fee. I am leaving the account open to faciliate switching back if either banks revise their terms in the future, and also it is quite an hassle to close it due to all the GIRO payments.
Other side reasons:
- I no longer have to worry about "clocking $500" to meet the spending requirement of OCBC365.
- I have heard stories of OCBC beinga adamant about not waiving annual fee if you do not meet their spending requirements. This is in preparation for that day. (coming this year October)
Overall, I estimate this shift to earn an additional $200+ of free money per year.
As of now, we still have working capital for 4 more acquisitions - and our watchlist includes Comfort Delgro, Raffles Medical Group, ThaiBev, Mapletree Commercial/Logistic/Greater China Trust, ST Engineering, Netlink Trust and Singtel.
Should a major correction comes a long, we intend to build a more substantial position in STI as long-term foundation - strategy is 1 bullet from 3200 points and another for every 200 points drop.
Finally we saw a glimpse of the bear in February. Volatility is returning and hopefully we will get some chances to deploy our funds. There were a couple of days when the DOW fell more than 1000 points, but it quickly rebounded. STI hasn't even retract 10% and this is definitely nowhere near major sale-terriority yet.
Macro wise - we have the threat of US-Sino trade war brewing, de-nuclearization of North Korea, more incoming interest hikes and who knows what else the crazy president is going to do.
Locally, there is a lot to learn from the Noble Group saga. When it fell from over $1 to 60c, people were saying "there is no point selling now, it is already so cheap. It can't possibly get any cheaper." Well, cheaper did it get. After a 10-to-1 reverse stock split and more rights issue, it has since lost a further 90+% of its value. The important lesson here is not just that cheap can get cheaper, but how crucial the management are to a company, particularly for a cut-throat business. When you got selfish, incompetent and some might even say corrupted management, it is just not worth investing in the company no matter how cheap it is.
Performance Review Highlights
Our portfolio underperformed for Q1, losing 2% compared to STI which is still up 1% YTD. It was dragged down mostly by the recent REITs correction and the slight decline in Singtel (our biggest holding). At the trough, our portfolio was down as much as by $8000 from peak.
Interesting note: Our equities holding is nearly doubled from the same period last year! This is proof of how much we are pumping into investments.
In this quarter - we added Starhill Global REIT and M1 Limited, decisions we would elaborate more on below. Thanks to Singtel special dividends - we paid out over $2000 in dividends in Q1 (the largest amount of any quarter by far)!
I really did not expect main income to exceed the record 2016Q1 figure, but the higher base-income plus good bonus made it about 5% higher. Financial-wise, moving on to this new job is definitely the right move. We made higher income in all the past 4 quarter - and I think the difference will be even more pronounced this year. Looking forward to the year end tally.
On top of one-time income from CNY angbaos, we made some gambling winnings ($300+) this year (compare to a loss last year). Passive income is also signifcantly higher. In local news, government announces a minor angbao to be credited later in this year.
A lot was spent on insomnia supplements and other sleep aid "devices" . Some of them are quite ridiculous, but I am desparate now. I will try it as long as it has a sound chance of working, and I will continue to hunt for an effective cure. I also "impulse add-on buys" a couple of board games at Amazon for over $150, which are mostly bad buys looking at it now. I don't forsee the games being played much going foward, and it really goes against my minimalism philosophy. Will definitely work on curbing these buys in the future.
2018 marked the first year of giving my mum CNY angbao, and I intend to keep this "tradition" going forward. This made up the bulk of the "one-time" expense category. Interestingly, when I compare recurring expenses for the past 4 years, it is almost equal (within ~5% of each other).
New Account - DBS Multipler
One of the major decision this quarter was moving from OCBC360 to the new DBS Multipler. I will not go into specific review of the Multipler (you can read it here), but for our case, it offers a more compelling rate, especially after the repeated downgrade made to OCBC.
For OCBC 360, I get 1.55% every month, and 1.85% occassionally.
For DBS Mutlipler, I get at least 1.9% every month, often 2.2-2.3%, and perhaps even 3.5%!
A rough estimation:
OCBC: $70000 x 1.6% = $1120
DBS + CIMB: $50000 x 2.0% + ($17000 x 1.0%) = $1000 + $170 = $1170
DBS + Maxigain: $50000 x 2.0% + ($17000 x 2.0%) = $1000 + $340 = $1340
This is assuming the $3K remain in OCBC to maintain the account fall below fee. I am leaving the account open to faciliate switching back if either banks revise their terms in the future, and also it is quite an hassle to close it due to all the GIRO payments.
Other side reasons:
- I no longer have to worry about "clocking $500" to meet the spending requirement of OCBC365.
- I have heard stories of OCBC beinga adamant about not waiving annual fee if you do not meet their spending requirements. This is in preparation for that day. (coming this year October)
Overall, I estimate this shift to earn an additional $200+ of free money per year.
Acquisitions
2 big positions taken up this term:
Starhill Global REIT: We have been eyeing to buy it this below 70c. When it seems like it would never come, we finally give in to pay a higher price. Still, it should be decent value. Near 6.5% yield (could drop further in next quarter, but confident that it would stablize once the AEI completes), 0.8P/B, a decent gearing of 35% and generally good management. There are plans by the government to "rejuvenate" Orchard Road - I'll reserve my judgement on how effective it would be.
M1: We would not deny it is partly a gamble to "recoup losses", but there are several positives we are betting on. Management guided lower capex next year ($120M in 2018 vs $150M in 2017), inclusive of spectrum rights. In our view, Q4 results showed sign of bottoming, with revenue increasing, EBITDA stabalizing and increasing customer base.
At worst we forsee another 5-10% drop in earnings. EPS is 14.c in Y2017 - Assuming the worst case drop and EPS of 12.8c, an 80% payout ratio is 10.3c DPU which at $1.74 still gives a 5.9% yield. Assuming a steady DPU of 11c, we are hoping it would yield 6.3%. They have lot of initiatives such as waste management, SG bikes, corporate segment growth which we hope would eventually replace the declining mobile revenue. A secondary factor is confidence boost by several like-minded investors.
2 big positions taken up this term:
Starhill Global REIT: We have been eyeing to buy it this below 70c. When it seems like it would never come, we finally give in to pay a higher price. Still, it should be decent value. Near 6.5% yield (could drop further in next quarter, but confident that it would stablize once the AEI completes), 0.8P/B, a decent gearing of 35% and generally good management. There are plans by the government to "rejuvenate" Orchard Road - I'll reserve my judgement on how effective it would be.
M1: We would not deny it is partly a gamble to "recoup losses", but there are several positives we are betting on. Management guided lower capex next year ($120M in 2018 vs $150M in 2017), inclusive of spectrum rights. In our view, Q4 results showed sign of bottoming, with revenue increasing, EBITDA stabalizing and increasing customer base.
At worst we forsee another 5-10% drop in earnings. EPS is 14.c in Y2017 - Assuming the worst case drop and EPS of 12.8c, an 80% payout ratio is 10.3c DPU which at $1.74 still gives a 5.9% yield. Assuming a steady DPU of 11c, we are hoping it would yield 6.3%. They have lot of initiatives such as waste management, SG bikes, corporate segment growth which we hope would eventually replace the declining mobile revenue. A secondary factor is confidence boost by several like-minded investors.
Outlook
Aside a $1000+ upcoming vocation, recurring expenses should be similar to last year.As of now, we still have working capital for 4 more acquisitions - and our watchlist includes Comfort Delgro, Raffles Medical Group, ThaiBev, Mapletree Commercial/Logistic/Greater China Trust, ST Engineering, Netlink Trust and Singtel.
Should a major correction comes a long, we intend to build a more substantial position in STI as long-term foundation - strategy is 1 bullet from 3200 points and another for every 200 points drop.
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Quarterly Results Review - 2017Q4
It was a rough February as volatility returns to the US and I finally saw signs of the long-awaited bear. My portfolio suffer a massive drawdown of over $9000 in a mere 3 weeks (dropping as much as $2200 in a single day).
Other wealthier bloggers are experiencing as much as $30K drawdown or even 5 digits "loss" in a single day.
That said, I'm super hyped. I've been waiting forever for the return of this Great Singapore Sale.
M1
As I expect, the earnings seems to have bottom (for now), with 4Q PAT dropping by 2.5%, and full year PAT down -11.5%. Subscribers are stable (slight growth) while usual stuff like international roaming continue its downtrend. Full year dividend at 11.4c (80% payout ratio).
The stock price picked up a little but I still don't have the conviction to average down on this. There are no guidance on next year earnings (they say it's too early to tell).
As before, they are branching into other areas like malware detection solutions, nationwide IOT, smart sensors, "intelligent" waste management system, cloud offering of digital startups. Whether they will take off remains to be seen.
CapitaCommercial Trust
Good results (DPU up 8.66%, 6% higher) but the stock price have shot through the sky. I really should have grit my teeth and sell when it was at more than $2. It is really unstainable considering the yield at that price is below 5%.
I believe it would be more fairly valued at $1.65 for a 5.5% yield, or at best $1.8 for 5% yield. The market are pricing in lot of growth from their AEI and Asia Square acquisition.
CapitaMall Trust
As usual, stable dividend cash-cow. Expect stable 11c DPU (5.4% yield at $2.04) until the launch of Funan in 2019.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Share price exploded with the launch of Northpoint City. Usual comment:
My crown holding - low debt level (29%), 11 years of increasing DPU, NAV grown from 1.78 to 2.02 since I first vested in 2014, best management, super resilient. Every single quarter the results is good. What more can you ask for?
Singtel
The wide market downturn finally broke Singtel $3.6 support.
At $3.40, Singtel currently trades at 10x EV/EBITDA, below its five year historical mean of 12x. It is also supported by a attractive yield of 5.1% (or 17.5c, for such a strong blue chip). P/E is close to 10!
I would definitely add on more if I weren't already so heavily vested in it. I think I will fire one more bullet should it falls to $3.3, and reserve 1 final bullet for $3.
Given the "wide-ranging impact" of Singtel (Singtel shares, Temasek Holdings, favourite of retirees) and its curent payout ratio, I think the chance of dividend cut is remote. The CEO herself have also started buybacks at $3.3x.
Frasers Property
Frasers Centrepoint Limited renamed. Its share price has been on a downtrend since hitting $2.25.
Profit took a big 46% hit this quarter, but is expected due to the lumpy nature of property development. I like that recurring income has now grown to over 70%..
Current NAV is $2.46, and I expect dividends to be maintained at 8.6c a year. I am still comfortable with this "ETF", and might add on more should it come to $1.7 (30% discount to NAV, 5% yield).
Far East Hospitality Trust
DPU falls 13.4% to 0.97c. At this yield of 5.5%, I think market is pricing for the recovery to happen in 2019 (management guides continued competitive environment for next few quarters). Not sure how much the AEI and macro "tourism" events would have on the profitiability.
For now, I will just leave this as it is (not a big position) and might sell if the price keeps going up.
Accordia Golf Trust
DPU drops 19% and there seems to be no turn-around in sight. Kind of regret not selling when it hit over 78c, but no one expected the deposit returns losses and 2 consecutive bad quarters.
Now, it is back at my entry price, but I have still earned substantial dividends from this counter.
Management continue to iterate Japan's economy recovery, hopefully it prorpogates down to this counter. I will seriously consider selling it if the price rebounds or fundamentals continue to weaken.
Sembcorp Industries
Dividends continue to get cut (full year 5c, from 8c in 2016 and 11c in 2015). EPS down from 19.9c to 10.5c It is weird that Urban Development have taken over Marine as the 2nd biggest segment.
Looking forward to the IPO of Sembcorp Energy India.
Netlink Trust
Nothing much to say - everything according to forecast results and on track to meet target DPU.
Link to DBS Report
Watchlist
Comfort Delgro - $1.9 and below would be extremely tempting.
SGX - Closer to $7. India exchange saga impact unknown.
Raffles Medical Group - Closer to $1. High P/E but long term growth story.
ThaiBev - A lot hinges on their Vision 2020. Debt is crazy after the acquisition spree. Might be cheap at 80c, but I would wait for lower to be safe.
Starhill Global Reit - Results weakening slightly but recovery expected in 2nd half. Assuming annualized dividends of 4.68c, provides 6.5% yield at $0.72. I also think it has a good management due to this article.
Mapletree Comm Trust - Below $1.5, camping at 6% yield. NAV is $1.37.
Mapletree Logistic Trust - Despite >10% retracement still pretty expensive. If it comes closer to book value, say $1.1.
ST Engineering - Would likely bite at 5% yield (closer to $3)
Capitaland - Look closer to $3.3 or below.
Mapletree Greater China Trust - $1.1 or when it retract to more than 7% yield.
Other wealthier bloggers are experiencing as much as $30K drawdown or even 5 digits "loss" in a single day.
That said, I'm super hyped. I've been waiting forever for the return of this Great Singapore Sale.
M1
As I expect, the earnings seems to have bottom (for now), with 4Q PAT dropping by 2.5%, and full year PAT down -11.5%. Subscribers are stable (slight growth) while usual stuff like international roaming continue its downtrend. Full year dividend at 11.4c (80% payout ratio).
The stock price picked up a little but I still don't have the conviction to average down on this. There are no guidance on next year earnings (they say it's too early to tell).
As before, they are branching into other areas like malware detection solutions, nationwide IOT, smart sensors, "intelligent" waste management system, cloud offering of digital startups. Whether they will take off remains to be seen.
CapitaCommercial Trust
Good results (DPU up 8.66%, 6% higher) but the stock price have shot through the sky. I really should have grit my teeth and sell when it was at more than $2. It is really unstainable considering the yield at that price is below 5%.
I believe it would be more fairly valued at $1.65 for a 5.5% yield, or at best $1.8 for 5% yield. The market are pricing in lot of growth from their AEI and Asia Square acquisition.
CapitaMall Trust
As usual, stable dividend cash-cow. Expect stable 11c DPU (5.4% yield at $2.04) until the launch of Funan in 2019.
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Share price exploded with the launch of Northpoint City. Usual comment:
My crown holding - low debt level (29%), 11 years of increasing DPU, NAV grown from 1.78 to 2.02 since I first vested in 2014, best management, super resilient. Every single quarter the results is good. What more can you ask for?
Singtel
The wide market downturn finally broke Singtel $3.6 support.
At $3.40, Singtel currently trades at 10x EV/EBITDA, below its five year historical mean of 12x. It is also supported by a attractive yield of 5.1% (or 17.5c, for such a strong blue chip). P/E is close to 10!
I would definitely add on more if I weren't already so heavily vested in it. I think I will fire one more bullet should it falls to $3.3, and reserve 1 final bullet for $3.
Given the "wide-ranging impact" of Singtel (Singtel shares, Temasek Holdings, favourite of retirees) and its curent payout ratio, I think the chance of dividend cut is remote. The CEO herself have also started buybacks at $3.3x.
Frasers Property
Frasers Centrepoint Limited renamed. Its share price has been on a downtrend since hitting $2.25.
Profit took a big 46% hit this quarter, but is expected due to the lumpy nature of property development. I like that recurring income has now grown to over 70%..
Current NAV is $2.46, and I expect dividends to be maintained at 8.6c a year. I am still comfortable with this "ETF", and might add on more should it come to $1.7 (30% discount to NAV, 5% yield).
Far East Hospitality Trust
DPU falls 13.4% to 0.97c. At this yield of 5.5%, I think market is pricing for the recovery to happen in 2019 (management guides continued competitive environment for next few quarters). Not sure how much the AEI and macro "tourism" events would have on the profitiability.
For now, I will just leave this as it is (not a big position) and might sell if the price keeps going up.
Accordia Golf Trust
DPU drops 19% and there seems to be no turn-around in sight. Kind of regret not selling when it hit over 78c, but no one expected the deposit returns losses and 2 consecutive bad quarters.
Now, it is back at my entry price, but I have still earned substantial dividends from this counter.
Management continue to iterate Japan's economy recovery, hopefully it prorpogates down to this counter. I will seriously consider selling it if the price rebounds or fundamentals continue to weaken.
Sembcorp Industries
Dividends continue to get cut (full year 5c, from 8c in 2016 and 11c in 2015). EPS down from 19.9c to 10.5c It is weird that Urban Development have taken over Marine as the 2nd biggest segment.
Looking forward to the IPO of Sembcorp Energy India.
Netlink Trust
Nothing much to say - everything according to forecast results and on track to meet target DPU.
Link to DBS Report
Watchlist
Comfort Delgro - $1.9 and below would be extremely tempting.
SGX - Closer to $7. India exchange saga impact unknown.
Raffles Medical Group - Closer to $1. High P/E but long term growth story.
ThaiBev - A lot hinges on their Vision 2020. Debt is crazy after the acquisition spree. Might be cheap at 80c, but I would wait for lower to be safe.
Starhill Global Reit - Results weakening slightly but recovery expected in 2nd half. Assuming annualized dividends of 4.68c, provides 6.5% yield at $0.72. I also think it has a good management due to this article.
Mapletree Comm Trust - Below $1.5, camping at 6% yield. NAV is $1.37.
Mapletree Logistic Trust - Despite >10% retracement still pretty expensive. If it comes closer to book value, say $1.1.
ST Engineering - Would likely bite at 5% yield (closer to $3)
Capitaland - Look closer to $3.3 or below.
Mapletree Greater China Trust - $1.1 or when it retract to more than 7% yield.
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