Market Price (2015-1-25) = $2.02
Earnings
Approx. EPU: $0.0292 * 4 = $0.1168 (Latest Quarter)
Approx. DPU: $0.0275 * 4 = $0.11 (Latest Quarter)
Approx. DPU: 2.88+3.022+2.875+2.75 = $0.1152 (TTM)
Ratios
Yield: 5.4%
P/E: 17
Balance Sheet
Gearing: (Borrowings / Assets) = (644+95)/2521 = 29.3%
Interest Cover: 6.27x
NAV: $1.85
Additional Info
Quarterly distributions in Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct
Personal Opinion:
- Price is now 9% above NAV.
- Current yield of 5.4% is pretty low for a REIT, considering the additional risk.
+ Stable and recurring earnings. Heartland malls is even more defensive than those in CBDs.
+ Proven management track records with 8 years of increasing DPU.
My cash cow. Many analyst are calling for PT of >$2.1. Personally, I think it's fairly valued already at this price with limited margin of safety.
*Note: In my analysis, I tend to always use the most conservative
estimates. For example, I extrapolate Q1 results for the entire year
when traditionally, Q1 is always the least profitable.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
Thursday, January 22, 2015
That Same Feeling
OMG... That same feeling I got back in 2011/2012 is coming back again.
It's like deja-vu...
It has got to stop.
I need to keep myself occupied.
I need to clear these awful thoughts.
Yes, I must...
...
It's like deja-vu...
It has got to stop.
I need to keep myself occupied.
I need to clear these awful thoughts.
Yes, I must...
...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Golden Opportunity
Back in 2013, I fought a very important battle.
But alas, it was not to be.
I was not prepared. I was not experienced enough yet.
...
Now...
Coming to the end of 2014, another has come knocking on my door.
This is probably the first invitation that I am TRULY interested in.
All the training these 2 years.
All my knowledge, my skills, my enlightenment - It's time to organize and consolidate them.
This is a very very important battle.
I MUST give it my best shot.
But alas, it was not to be.
I was not prepared. I was not experienced enough yet.
...
Now...
Coming to the end of 2014, another has come knocking on my door.
This is probably the first invitation that I am TRULY interested in.
All the training these 2 years.
All my knowledge, my skills, my enlightenment - It's time to organize and consolidate them.
This is a very very important battle.
I MUST give it my best shot.
Sunday, December 28, 2014
First Annual Report
Received my first ever "Annual Report" as a shareholder of Frasers. Fully colored!
In it, the management team lists out:
- How the company has performed over the past year, and the reasons contributing to its success/failure
- Summary of the company assets (value of each property, tenants mix, lease period, etc)
- Financial information (cash flow, liabilities, etc)
- Interesting Stuff (like how it organize charity events for the community)
- The forecast for the future, and how it intends to grow the company
- Proposed resolutions (i.e you get to 'vote') on plans for the coming year
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's like you are now the boss, and the management are reporting to you; submitting their progress report. If you are not happy with the company, you are free to sell your stakes away.
It's what I like about long-term investing. Success is based on actual performance of the something tangible, not reading charts and candlesticks.
Too many people treat investment like gambling. They buy stock based on symbols and price, hoping to sell it at a profit to others quickly.
I buy the actual business, and makes decision to buy/sell based on fundamental changes to the company. It's a long and slow process that can't provide instant gratification, but I'm enjoying the process.
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Financial Summary 2014
2014 marks my first year in investing.
Here's a reflection on each of my pick.
1) Frasers Centrepoint Trust
$2.5 billion total assets with only $800 million total liabilities, growing revenue, profits and DPU.
My first stock - I brought this after months of deliberation and research. And it's my favourite and most trusted one to date.
My confidence only grows when I see how crowded its shopping malls are; I'm feeling secured on how defensive it is, even if it doesn't continue to grow at the same pace in the future.
2) Super Group
Looking back, I must say this is an impulse buy. Not just because the price took a huge dive, but because I didn't really spend that much effort evaluating it.
I was too "eager" after purchasing my first stock, and didn't do as much homework on this one. Thankfully, I held back a little and took a smaller positio.
Regardless, I feel quite safe with their solid balance sheet: $77 million cash with negligible debt. They also have upcoming new products, good track record and a quite specialized food ingredient business.
I don't feel comfortable averaging down, but I'm hopeful holding for the long term.
3) China Merchant Pacific
A strong pillar of my income investing strategy. The yield is amazing for its price - I'm getting ~$700/year from this alone.
It managed to turn Jiuirui expressway from loss-making to profit the first quarter after acquisition.
Strong backing, solid balance sheet, impressive management, and good valuation. The reason I haven't brought more is only because it would tilt my portfolio too much (can't put all your eggs into one basket).
Shall look forward to add more when the chance arrive.
4) Sembcorp Industries
The shares drop quite a bit recently as well with the oil crisis, but this is one purchase I don't regret.
I was even disappointed when the price rebounded as I'm looking to add more positions should it hit $3.8.
Overall, I'm confident of the defensiveness and growth of its utilities segment. As mentioned, garbage always has to be cleared, water and power have to be provided.
5) Cash Holdings
Being new to investing, I still feel much safer with more cash on hand.
Some may see it as missed opportunities, but I see it like my master - who refers to it as an "armageddon fund".
Your cash is like your troops. You need to strike when the enemy is weak, not when it's strong; You'll amass huge casualties.
Moreover, as a newbie, it's much wiser to send small scout forces to 'test water, to gain experience. Having the majority of the force defend the capital makes me feel safer at night.
6) Thoughts
Over the year, I've been saving up a huge part of my income. I must say that I really spend a lot lesser compare to friends of my age. I guess that's one of the benefit of being a loner. :)
I think I have been able to save as much as 80%, sometimes even 90% of my income, excluding any major purchases (which is none in 2014). This aggressive saving has allow me to build up a 2 year emergency fund (which I'll never touch), an armageddon fund (for war), and purchase the stocks above.
I'm really working hard towards achieving financial freedom without compromising on quality of life.
7) Goals for 2015
Next year will be my first "full year" investing. No more "pro-rated". I think there's a need to set some concrete goals, something for me to work towards.
- To achieve an average passive income of $200 per month
I don't want to set the amount too high, as it would force me to make purchases that is not "value for money". At the same time, it should be a reasonable step forward from what I have now.
- To dutifully track my expenses for 1 year
I have done this previously for a couple of months, but it was excel-based, and not in the ideal structure. This time round, I hope to setup a real intelligence system about my spending habits. Categorizing each items and tracking them as I spend (instead of basing them off memory).
Hmm... I need a good mobile app for this though. Hopefully at the end of the year I'll be able to come up with some meaningful charts.
Last but not least, I also aim to read a few good investment books and share my thoughts here.
Here's a reflection on each of my pick.
1) Frasers Centrepoint Trust
$2.5 billion total assets with only $800 million total liabilities, growing revenue, profits and DPU.
My first stock - I brought this after months of deliberation and research. And it's my favourite and most trusted one to date.
My confidence only grows when I see how crowded its shopping malls are; I'm feeling secured on how defensive it is, even if it doesn't continue to grow at the same pace in the future.
2) Super Group
Looking back, I must say this is an impulse buy. Not just because the price took a huge dive, but because I didn't really spend that much effort evaluating it.
I was too "eager" after purchasing my first stock, and didn't do as much homework on this one. Thankfully, I held back a little and took a smaller positio.
Regardless, I feel quite safe with their solid balance sheet: $77 million cash with negligible debt. They also have upcoming new products, good track record and a quite specialized food ingredient business.
I don't feel comfortable averaging down, but I'm hopeful holding for the long term.
3) China Merchant Pacific
A strong pillar of my income investing strategy. The yield is amazing for its price - I'm getting ~$700/year from this alone.
It managed to turn Jiuirui expressway from loss-making to profit the first quarter after acquisition.
Strong backing, solid balance sheet, impressive management, and good valuation. The reason I haven't brought more is only because it would tilt my portfolio too much (can't put all your eggs into one basket).
Shall look forward to add more when the chance arrive.
4) Sembcorp Industries
The shares drop quite a bit recently as well with the oil crisis, but this is one purchase I don't regret.
I was even disappointed when the price rebounded as I'm looking to add more positions should it hit $3.8.
Overall, I'm confident of the defensiveness and growth of its utilities segment. As mentioned, garbage always has to be cleared, water and power have to be provided.
5) Cash Holdings
Being new to investing, I still feel much safer with more cash on hand.
Some may see it as missed opportunities, but I see it like my master - who refers to it as an "armageddon fund".
Your cash is like your troops. You need to strike when the enemy is weak, not when it's strong; You'll amass huge casualties.
Moreover, as a newbie, it's much wiser to send small scout forces to 'test water, to gain experience. Having the majority of the force defend the capital makes me feel safer at night.
6) Thoughts
Over the year, I've been saving up a huge part of my income. I must say that I really spend a lot lesser compare to friends of my age. I guess that's one of the benefit of being a loner. :)
I think I have been able to save as much as 80%, sometimes even 90% of my income, excluding any major purchases (which is none in 2014). This aggressive saving has allow me to build up a 2 year emergency fund (which I'll never touch), an armageddon fund (for war), and purchase the stocks above.
I'm really working hard towards achieving financial freedom without compromising on quality of life.
7) Goals for 2015
Next year will be my first "full year" investing. No more "pro-rated". I think there's a need to set some concrete goals, something for me to work towards.
- To achieve an average passive income of $200 per month
I don't want to set the amount too high, as it would force me to make purchases that is not "value for money". At the same time, it should be a reasonable step forward from what I have now.
- To dutifully track my expenses for 1 year
I have done this previously for a couple of months, but it was excel-based, and not in the ideal structure. This time round, I hope to setup a real intelligence system about my spending habits. Categorizing each items and tracking them as I spend (instead of basing them off memory).
Hmm... I need a good mobile app for this though. Hopefully at the end of the year I'll be able to come up with some meaningful charts.
Last but not least, I also aim to read a few good investment books and share my thoughts here.
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